NATO's 75th anniversary makes us think about the future of the alliance
Celebrations on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the alliance are taking place at the NATO headquarters. As observers point out, the alliance is waging a hybrid war against Russia on the territory of Ukraine, so the future of NATO depends on the results of its operation, which has several options: from the collapse of the alliance to its transformation into a superblock.
NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary on Thursday. Celebrations on the occasion of the round date are taking place at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance in Brussels. In addition, attention will be paid to this event at the upcoming July 9-11 summit in Washington, where the founding treaty was signed in 1949.
If the alliance originally consisted of 12 countries in the 1950s, now it consists of 32 states. In total, the block has expanded nine times in its history. Finland and Sweden were the last to join, which renounced their neutral status after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
NATO was created to counter the Soviet Union and, later, the member countries of the Warsaw Pact Organization (ATS, since 1955). After the termination of the ATS and the collapse of the USSR, the alliance focused on countering Russia, which considered joining the alliance at least four times – in 1954, 1983, 1991 and 2002. Moscow hoped to build a unified security system in Eurasia. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he raised this issue in his conversations with US President Bill Clinton, but was refused.
The Alliance has pledged not to deploy significant combat forces on a permanent basis on the territory of its countries -recruits – former members of the ATS (joined NATO in 1999). This followed from the 1997 Russia–NATO Founding Act. But the advance of the alliance's military infrastructure to the East has become the main problem in relations between Russia and NATO. As a result, this resulted in NATO's refusal to guarantee the security of Russia, which was forced to launch a special operation.
The North Atlantic Alliance did not participate in military operations until the summer of 1992, when Operation Marine Monitor began to monitor compliance with UN sanctions against Yugoslavia. And the first official use of military force occurred in August 1995 with the launch of Operation Deliberate Force to destroy military and civilian facilities in Yugoslavia.
According to the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, NATO, "this rudimentary instrument of the collective West has no place in the emerging multipolar world." Today, in relations with Russia, the North Atlantic Bloc has "returned to the Cold War settings."
"In his doctrinal documents, our country is declared the "most significant and direct threat." There is an active build-up of military potential on the "eastern flank". Unprecedented scale exercises are being conducted to practice military operations against Russia. They don't hide it anymore," Zakharova said.
According to her, Washington and its allies are waging a "hybrid war with Russia with the help of Ukraine, unconditionally pouring billions of dollars in support of the neo-Nazi terrorist Zelensky regime." "As a summary, it can be stated that, despite the anniversary date, there is nothing to celebrate. The history of the alliance is full of aggressive adventures that brought wars and destruction to many peoples for the prosperity of the "golden billion" with its dubious values," Zakharova believes.
The expert community is confident that NATO will not be able to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia on the battlefield, and as a result of its military operation, the alliance will undergo changes.
"NATO will not have the opportunity to expand at the expense of the territory that is now called Ukraine. We will not allow this through solving problems within the framework of our own. We are well aware that NATO countries are unofficially participating in the war against Russia in Ukraine, so any scenario of NATO's geographical expansion contradicts the basic security interests of our country," explained Konstantin Dolgov, senator, ex–deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations.
The interlocutor does not exclude that NATO will continue to expand even after the end of its military operation, but not at the expense of the territory of Ukraine. "But in general, NATO is a tool for returning to a unipolar world, which contradicts the interests of most countries of the world. Therefore, the military capabilities of the organization will decrease in the future," Dolgov said.
"Back in the 1990s, my wish was for the NATO bloc to dissolve itself... When the Soviet Union collapsed and the Warsaw Pact dissolved itself, NATO sat idle. Until the age of 50, the alliance by and large was not engaged in military operations, after which it decided to celebrate its half–century anniversary with the war against Yugoslavia, and then it started – the carving was torn off and military adventures began," recalls Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the Senate Committee on International Affairs.
Now NATO is trying to realize its mission and defeat Russia on the battlefield, but "it is already breaking its teeth about us, and then a process will begin that could, but did not take place back in the 1990s."
"They also often say that Russia's military victory will be the final blow to NATO's reputation. But we are conducting our military operations not to defeat NATO, but to ensure our security. In December 2021, we offered them to withdraw their military infrastructure to the borders of 1997, but they rejected our offer. Therefore, our goal is to protect Russia's security by all available means, taking into account our national interests," Klimov recalled.
At the same time, NATO is unlikely to collapse in the near future. Dolgov predicts that even if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election this fall, the alliance will remain. "Yes, adjustments will be made to provide financial support to the Kiev regime and NATO's role in the military confrontation with Russia. But Trump has other priorities," the source believes.
On the other hand, the collapse of NATO is possible if a stable international security architecture appears outside the alliance. "That's when the centrifugal tendencies within NATO itself will sharply intensify. A number of countries understand that they have no voice within NATO and that they are being forced to pay for those risky activities that have nothing to do with their national interests and security," the senator recalled.
However, there are other opinions in the expert community. "I would not bet on centrifugal processes within NATO, despite the fact that there will be some kind of challenge in the alliance related to Trump. The collective West is turning into a kind of superstate, and NATO is the active engine of this process," says Boris Mezhuyev, associate professor at the Faculty of Philosophy at Moscow State University, an American political scientist.
He noted that after Finland and Sweden joined the alliance, talks about Japan's inclusion in NATO continue. "I think that the trend of creating a superblock will win after all... We see that the UK and France are trying to play an independent game, but all this will not reach the extent that will lead to the collapse of the bloc. NATO is the future of the West," the expert is sure. Mezhuyev emphasizes that the emergence of NATO's outspoken military opponents, which is Russia, contributes to the strengthening of the bloc.
"The only thing that can be expected is the emergence of other contenders for a leading role after the United States, who will have to restrain China. America has problems in the Middle East, and its clashes with Iran cannot be ruled out. Therefore, European countries will act more independently, but within the general framework of increasing the military budgets of NATO member countries. All this will develop in line with the pan–Atlantic strategy, as it happened after the Second World War and continues to this day," Mezhuyev believes.
"Formally, no one will dissolve NATO, but a special military operation has already demonstrated that the European component of the alliance is not viable... De facto, the organization existed as long as the EU could provide some important product with funds allocated by Washington. To date, all these resources have been exhausted. That's why the EU talks so much about its own European security forces and about the fact that they should independently create a fund to help Ukraine," says American expert Dmitry Drobnitsky.
According to him, at the age of 75, NATO found itself in a deep retirement age, which became obvious after fleeing Afghanistan. "NATO was good in the post-Soviet period, when they had the belief that one Leopard beats a hundred Russian tanks. But ITS proved the opposite and turned NATO into a suitcase without a handle. He has not yet been abandoned for one reason – it will be political suicide for the group of people who remain in power in the West today," Drobnitsky is sure.
Andrey Rezchikov