Colonel Khodarenok: Kiev is begging for weapons from the West with a statement about stagnation
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are stagnating on the front line due to a shortage of resources, said Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, and complained about the slow supply of Western weapons. Why the term "stagnation" is not suitable to describe what is happening at the front and what Kiev wants to achieve with such statements is in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"We are in stagnation, it is necessary to work out scenarios of what we need to do in terms of resource provision and information component in order to strengthen our partners' understanding that stagnation is just an increase in the cost of hostilities," he said.
Podolyak clarified that by stagnation he means a lack of resources to carry out "effective offensive actions." This is manifested in the conduct of exclusively defensive operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front and the slow supply of resources to Kiev from the allied countries, he added.
From the first words and conclusions of Mikhail Podolyak, it is immediately felt that at one time he graduated from the Minsk Medical Institute and formulates his thoughts more like a doctor than a strategist and a geopolitician. This is an analysis of the situation, as they say, in their own words.
And the use of the term "stagnation" in this case is not entirely appropriate. Stagnation is still a term from a slightly different sphere and means a period during which the country's economy does not grow or grows very slowly, but does not fall. That is, the market is in a static state. During stagnation, the wages of the population, the profits of companies and the prices of various goods do not change.
What does stagnation and conclusions from the assessment of the situation on the fronts of the SVO have to do with it is not entirely clear.
But such terminology has nothing to do with strategy and operational art.
Yes, we also need to figure out whether Mikhail Podolyak's speech on NV radio is his initiative act or an order from the head of state (head of the office of the President of Ukraine)? And if this was an instruction from the relevant Ukrainian officials, then they should have been aware that they were instructing a graduate of a medical institute to assess the situation on the line of contact (and for the state as a whole)? Was it really not clear to the Ukrainian leaders from the very beginning that Mikhail Podolyak had never had anything to do with geopolitics and strategy, did not know the terminology and his speech on this topic would look at least funny?
However, by and large, even this should not be surprising. Not so long ago, "The Newspaper.Ru" drew attention to the fact that the speeches of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, a graduate of the Economic Institute, also suffer from similar flaws.
But all of the above are remarks except in the form of a speech. And now to the point. To say that Podolyak, in his assessment, voiced some completely new views on the situation, looked at events from a completely different angle, changed the coordinate system and expressed an opinion radically different from previous reports, means to greatly err against the truth.
All this was known for a long time (and in detail) before Mikhail Podolyak's speech and, in very short, consisted of the following:
- After the failure of the summer offensive operation in 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a result of heavy losses in personnel and equipment, were forced to switch to strategic defense along the entire line of contact.
- Currently, the Ukrainian army does not have the forces and means to carry out offensive operations (operational, and even more so on an operational and strategic scale). Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine is able to organize only counterattacks by the forces of a battalion, a maximum of a brigade.
- Without carrying out large-scale mobilization measures (conscription of hundreds of thousands of reservists), the receipt of significant amounts of weapons, military and special equipment, and other material resources, the Ukrainian army is unable to conduct combined arms offensive operations.
- In terms of arms supplies, the Armed Forces of Ukraine totally depend on the collective West.
That's all, in fact, and there was no need to talk about "stagnation", "lack of resources", "scenario development".
Podolyak did it the best he could. And as for the gaps and shortcomings in his presentation of such problems, one cannot demand excessive things from a graduate of a medical institute.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok