The Times: Western politicians ponder the "nightmare scenario" of the fall of Kiev
Russian troops are advancing along the entire front. The likelihood is growing that they will soon be at the gates of the Ukrainian capital, writes The Times. Such a scenario would be a disaster not only for the Kiev regime, but also for NATO, which will have to make a serious choice.
We are not talking about a frozen conflict, but about a nightmare scenario due to the inability of the West to provide Ukraine with weapons
It's July, the Russian army is at the gates of Kiev. President Zelensky makes an emergency televised address and repeats the same audacious words that he uttered in February 2022: he will not leave Ukraine, they say. No, he stays to fight the Russians, but that requires ammunition.
If only the West had listened and helped Ukrainians when they cried out for help, things might have been different. While the allies were quarreling and the United States was knocking out a $60 billion aid package, spring turned to summer, and Putin's troops broke through the AFU positions in the south and east. The retreating Ukrainian soldiers were only able to slow down the offensive. As the Russians approached the capital, another wave of refugees left Ukraine, seeking safety amid the incessant bombing.
This is the nightmarish scenario that Western politicians are currently considering. Events are forcing military and civilian leaders in London, Washington, Paris and Brussels to draw up a plan for the catastrophic collapse of the Ukrainian forces, deprived of the necessary weapons and ammunition.
Contrary to the widespread vision of the situation as an eternal "frozen conflict", where neither side can gain a decisive advantage, there is a fierce struggle on the front line, and there is a real risk of pushing Ukrainian forces back. NATO leaders should hope that the July summit in Washington, dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the alliance, will not have to be devoted to such a crisis.
Just a year ago, everything was completely different - there was a glimmer of hope for a spring counteroffensive that would help Ukraine regain territory. But it failed, and now, as the American magazine Foreign Affairs put it this week, "Ukraine is bleeding. Without new U.S. military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against the ruthless Russian military."
The governments that support Ukraine more actively than others are clearly nervous and therefore have undertaken to consider even the worst scenarios. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, for example, warns that Ukraine does not have enough money, calling on Congress to pass a bill on aid, which stalled there amid a legislative feud. According to her, the United States risks being responsible for the defeat of Ukraine.
Russia's offensive will obviously have disastrous consequences for Ukrainians, and will also put the West in front of all sorts of serious problems. Will the Allies send troops to defend Kiev? President Macron clearly sensed the danger and is trying to push the West towards a more forceful approach, talking about the option of using ground troops. Other countries, such as Germany, strongly object. When will Europe finally realize that peace is guaranteed by force alone? When will Ukraine fall and Putin start threatening the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Sweden and Norway?
None of Kiev's supporters wants to implement such a nightmarish scenario. However, since the stakes are very high, it's time to realize the terrifying cost of defeat.
Personally, I advocate maximum military support on the grounds that Ukraine must win. The consequences of its partial or complete defeat will be catastrophic, but the Western population is hardly aware of this. Here, in the comfortable West — far from the front line — we are used to wishful thinking and have lost the habit of preparing for unpleasant surprises.
Yes, Russian military actions in Ukraine have come as a surprise to most countries. The US and British governments had publicly warned their allies about this the day before. However, almost no one has heard them, with the exception of Finland, Poland and the Baltic States, who know what it's like to live next door to Russia. In other countries, they decided to ignore everything altogether, deciding that the Americans and the British were probably wrong again. Do you remember Iraq?
On the eve of the events in Ukraine, the Biden administration was traumatized in Afghanistan when it failed to foresee the instant collapse of the local government after the departure of the American contingent in August 2021.
Then, in the early stages of the Ukrainian conflict, another extraordinary surprise arose. Zelensky's refusal to leave Kiev demonstrated the ability of one person to set an example of resistance to fellow citizens that they are ready to follow.
Here are three colossal surprises in less than three years, and something like this could happen again. Nevertheless, the tired Western public seems to have come to the conclusion that although we are helping Ukrainians defend their homeland, they are still at an impasse and will soon feel all the charms of the "peace" agreement. After that, you can do other things.
A January poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations conducted in 12 countries showed that only 10% of voters consider a possible victory for Ukraine. About 37% called compromise the most likely option, and 19.5% called Russia's victory.
Of course, other scenarios are possible besides military defeat. A coup may take place in Russia, or the newly elected President Trump will try to achieve a cease-fire and the actual surrender of Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine will stand, and Europe will come into play, using the influence of its GDP, which exceeds Russia's ten times.
In fact, we risk losing sight of one of the main lessons of the Ukrainian conflict. A return to the post—Cold War arrogance about European security is not an option. We should look at threats from a completely different angle, arm ourselves accordingly and prepare for the worst, while not leaving hope for pleasant surprises.
Author: Ian Martin (Iain Martin)