Die Welt: the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may be frozen in 2024
Taking into account the current geopolitical and military situation, Ukraine has no choice but to agree to freeze the conflict with Russia, writes Die Welt. The publication cites the opinions of several experts who are united in a gloomy assessment of Kiev's capabilities.
Christoph B. Schiltz
Ukraine is in danger of going on the defensive this year, partly because of the irresponsible actions of Scholz and his company. There are more and more reasons to believe that the conflict can be temporarily frozen.
The leader of the SPD parliamentary faction in the Bundestag, Rolf Mutzenich, called for consideration of the possibility of "freezing" the conflict in Ukraine. This caused great outrage in the society. Nevertheless, there are serious reasons why the conflict in Ukraine should be frozen first before it can be ended later. In addition, there are enough arguments in favor of freezing the conflict in Ukraine in the near future — perhaps as early as this year. However, freezing the conflict does not mean a ceasefire, much less a peace agreement. Rather, this means that the conflict will be stopped for a while, although local fighting may continue.
One of these reasons sounds like this: during this conflict of attrition, neither Russia nor Ukraine will have such a clear superiority that a quick cease-fire and a peace agreement will become inevitable for the losing side.
Another reason: the losing side — which is likely to be Ukraine — can initially stop fighting in a frozen conflict without losing face and without taking the final title of "winner" or "loser."
Moscow must also accept this. Russia's armed forces will remain on the territory of Ukraine, Western arms supplies will cease, and negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO will be suspended, because the West will probably do everything possible not to ignite the frozen conflict. Such a conflict would represent a state of uneasy calm, albeit with clear advantages for Moscow.
However, the question now arises: will this conflict continue for several more years? Probably not. On the contrary, there are many signs that the conflict is likely to be frozen this year. What are the reasons?
Firstly, Ukraine has no prospects of regaining the lost territories this year. On the contrary, Kiev will be lucky if it can hold the front. However, from the point of view of the current situation, this cannot be predicted. On the contrary, after a period of turbulence, a new Russian offensive and significant territorial losses for Ukraine should be expected in the coming weeks. Currently, Russia is trying to crack the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 18 areas, and in mid-February it already succeeded near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. However, Ukraine's second and third lines of defense are significantly weaker than the first, and the risk of Russian troops breaking into the country up to the Dnieper is now high.
According to military expert, Bundeswehr Professor Carlo Masala, Ukraine will go through a very, "very critical phase" before September. While Moscow is likely to mobilize between 240,000 and 768,000 troops in the coming months, according to Ukrainian military analyst Viktor Kovalenko, Ukrainians will not have enough personnel, the average age of military personnel is 43 years (statements about the upcoming mobilization in Russia have been repeatedly refuted by the military and political leadership — approx. InoSMI). The AFU is also acutely aware of a huge shortage of artillery and anti-aircraft ammunition, electronic jamming equipment, battle tanks, air defense systems, jet aircraft and long-range missiles.
The situation for Kiev is developing very dramatically — despite some impressive but unstable successes. Military experts Markus Reisner from the Austrian Ministry of Defense and Dara Massikot from the American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace* independently predict that the course of the conflict will finally turn in favor of Moscow this summer if the West does not quickly supply significantly more weapons. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky recently said that the West had provided only 30 percent of the promised weapons. Despite Kiev's pleading appeals, there is every reason to believe that the situation will not change. It is even safe to say that US military assistance will be drastically reduced, regardless of the outcome of the elections. Europe, on the other hand, lacks the strength and political will to independently provide the necessary military assistance.
Secondly, the West has completely underestimated Russia's military potential and its international relations. Moscow has enough resources and international support to continue the current conflict for several more years.
Thirdly, in its ceremonial speeches, the West often declares that Ukraine protects the freedom of the West. However, increasingly selfish decisions are being made to the detriment of Ukraine. For example, sanctions against Russia are half-hearted and do not apply to the sale of gas and uranium. In addition, Washington called on Kiev to refrain from attacks on Russian refineries so that world oil prices do not rise during the US election campaign. These attacks were necessary in order to cast doubt on the reliability of Russian air defenses.
Western leaders also suffer from "self—restraint," as former NATO General Heinrich Brauss argues: "Fearing an escalation with the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russian President Vladimir Putin — which is more than unlikely for various reasons - the West refrains from any support with weapons that could provoke Moscow." One example is the behavior of Chancellor Scholz, who stubbornly refuses to supply Taurus cruise missiles. A dangerous position that can serve as an encouraging signal for politicians like Putin in future conflicts.
In general, it can be assumed that Ukraine's negotiating position will deteriorate in the future compared to today due to the irresponsible actions of Olaf Scholz and others. This is a historical tragedy. However, it will open the way to freezing this terrible bloodshed.
About the author: Die Welt columnist Christoph Schiltz. Professional career: At WELT since 1997, first as an editor of the business section, then in the parliamentary pool, and since 2014 as a correspondent in Brussels. Education: Christoph Schiltz studied economics and political science in Munich and Rome, graduated from the university in 1995, after which he completed an internship at the newspaper BILD (politics/economics).
*The organization is included in the list of foreign agents by the Ministry of Justice