Le Figaro described five scenarios of France's military presence in Ukraine
Macron called on the West to prepare for everything in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, writes Le Figaro. In this regard, the editorial board presented five "fictional, but to varying degrees real" scenarios for the deployment of French troops in the conflict zone.
"We must prepare for any scenarios," Emmanuel Macron said once again on March 16 in an interview with the French newspaper Le Parisien. Earlier, on February 26, he had already said that "nothing can be ruled out."
Ukrainians, of course, are suffering losses. Avdiivka, which they have been fortifying since 2014, has been surrendered, American aid is delayed, and ammunition is about to run out.
"Ukraine's survival is under threat, and the security of the United States is at risk. They don't have a day to lose, just like us," US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at the end of the NATO meeting on February 19. Donald Trump, a candidate in the American presidential election, is asking his supporters to block a $60 billion aid package to Kiev, which, in turn, is being defended by his rival, Joe Biden. In Europe, Emmanuel Macron angered allies when he openly announced the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine.
"At the moment, there is no consensus on sending troops. But nothing should be ruled out in this matter in the future," he said on February 26.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted to this idea in this way: "NATO is not and will not become a party to the conflict. It will continue to be so… It also means: no German involvement! And I can say bluntly: as federal Chancellor, I will not send Bundeswehr soldiers to Ukraine!"
Adrienne Watson, a representative of the White House National Security Council, said that US President Joe Biden had previously made it clear that the United States would not send American troops to participate in battles on the territory of Ukraine. The same goes for the British and Italians.
However, the French president is adamant. "Many European countries, by no means small, fully support the French line," he said in an interview with the Parisien newspaper on March 16. — We must prepare for any scenarios. It would be a mistake not to do that. I am convinced that in any of these scenarios, everyone would take responsibility based on the model they chose."
The conflict in Ukraine. The situation at the front
In order to introduce French troops into the territory of another country, the President of the Republic, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, must issue an appropriate order and inform Parliament about it no later than three days after the start of the intervention. Article 35 of the Constitution, revised under Nicolas Sarkozy in 2008, states: "If the duration of the military intervention exceeds four months, the Government requests permission from Parliament to extend it. It may ask the National Assembly to make a final decision. If the Parliament is not in session after the expiration of the 4-month period, it shall make its decision after the opening of the regular session." Emmanuel Macron seems to have a legal justification for the deployment of troops, but the consent of the population is necessary. "Enthusiasm is not necessary, but at least a certain amount of agreement is definitely needed," said Reserve General Michel Yakovleff, a former senior NATO officer. According to a survey by the CSA Institute of Public Opinion, 76% of French people oppose sending soldiers to Ukraine.
"Three questions arise. First of all, what will the president say when he sees a huge number of coffins? It is not difficult to imagine how this will affect his authority and the opinion of the French... Secondly, if suddenly our soldiers are attacked, will we attack in response? Finally, it is unknown whether the United States will allow to go into battle alone!" said one source from the Ministry of Defense.
If there is a French military presence, it may take several forms, and all of them will cause certain consequences. However, the intervention will be limited. According to the chief of Staff of the French Ground Forces, General Pierre Schill, Paris can send 20,000 soldiers to Ukraine within thirty days. The scenarios that we present below are fictional, but to varying degrees real. They are based on precedents or on reports from representatives of a number of ministries.
The first scenario: France creates military factories in Ukraine
On the territory of Ukraine, France will create military factories for both production and operational maintenance. British defense company BAE Systems has signed a contract for the production of small arms, and German Rheinmetall plans to build a tank repair plant.
"French companies are going to establish partnerships with Ukrainian enterprises in order to produce spare parts in Ukraine, and possibly ammunition in the future," French Armed Forces Minister Sebastian Lecornu explained on the RMC channel on March 8.
The French army really has the capabilities to keep its equipment in working order. However, as in the case of BAE Systems and Rheinmetall, it is most likely that the military will not be responsible for the construction of the plants.
"I have big doubts about such a project. Insurance premiums will be so high that they will make it unlikely," said Reserve General Francois Chauvancy, a consultant on geopolitics with a doctorate in information and communication sciences.
These factories, which will produce high-value-added equipment, will become the main target for the Russian army.
"In any case, it will take several months for the project to bring results," one military source stressed. Therefore, factories in the neighboring NATO country can be more efficient. And from a political point of view, such a step would be less risky.
The second scenario: the military is engaged in mine clearance, training specialists, using some equipment
"Are there no ways to ensure the military presence of France and at the same time not become an accomplice in the fighting? I mean the demining and training of Ukrainian soldiers on their own territory," Sebastian Lecorny added in an interview with RMC on March 8. Ukrainian soldiers are already being trained in France and Poland under the leadership of the French army. However, they can study at home.
"Technically it is possible, but we have to ask ourselves whether this training will accelerate the depletion of Russian troops," says a source from the Ministry of Defense. Operational military assistance is a specialty of the French army, which trains soldiers of partner countries, in particular, in Africa.
"Any state can train soldiers of its allies and even send officers to its headquarters. France is less involved in this scenario. However, if the soldiers are killed, the authorities will have to somehow justify the victims and losses," General Chauvancy said. The same questions arise during mine clearance. France can send sappers, but it will have to justify itself to the public for the losses it has suffered."
As for the operators, "if the equipment we supply needs maintenance, then most likely the instructors are already on site," the French general added.
"What the British and French are doing in terms of targeting and target support [for their missiles] cannot be done in the case of Germany. In my opinion, it would be unjustified if we participated in targeting in the same way. In no case should German soldiers be associated with the targets that this system hits," Olaf Scholz said in early March, thereby revealing the presence of operators from both countries in Ukraine.
In this scenario, France will formalize its military presence in Ukraine, which was disclosed by the German Chancellor.
The third scenario: the defense of Odessa
"In any case, this year I will have to send some guys to Odessa," Emmanuel Macron said on February 21 at the Elysee Palace, Le Monde newspaper reports. The head of state fears a spike in grain prices and the spread of the Ukrainian conflict to Moldova if Russia takes control of the port of Odessa, Le Canard Enchaîné explained yesterday. In 2019, the three Odessa ports accounted for 64.8% of all Ukrainian exports and 67% of imports, 91.4 million tons of goods passed through them. In addition, they allow the export of grain, which is necessary in order to avoid the global food crisis.
In this scenario, the French army will send troops to ensure ground and air security in Odessa. "At this stage, the Russians do not have the means to get to Odessa. However, they may increase their missile strikes," says Nicolas Tenzer, a French political scientist and lecturer at the Paris Graduate School of Sciences Po.
The presence of France [in Ukraine] "would involve us in a direct confrontation with the Russian army. This is quite realistic, but it involves a huge risk and costs significant resources," General Chauvancy points out. From a practical point of view, France could "deploy anti-aircraft artillery, for example, the Mamba system." Paris has only eight of them, and several of them will undoubtedly be involved to ensure their own safety during the Olympic Games.
"Let's face it – in this scenario, we will enter into conflict with Russia," a source working for a large French military-industrial concern fears. "Therefore, politicians will have to justify themselves to the public both for the deployment of troops and for the loss of life."
The fourth scenario: French troops will create a protective zone
This scenario contains the same risks as the previous one, but on a larger scale. France will send troops to ease the situation of Ukrainian soldiers.
"We can imagine that they will be transferred to the Belarusian border, to Kherson or Kharkov. This will serve as a signal for the Russians to stop their advance. They could also protect cities and civilian infrastructure that are regularly targeted by the Russian army (the information is not true. — Approx.InoSMI)," explains Nicolas Tenzer, who has been advocating for a French military presence in Ukraine from the very beginning.
"The operation to ensure the inviolability of the territory in the very depths of Ukraine is currently an impossible dream," writes Colonel Michel Goya in his blog.
"Our troops could be present in Ukraine and subordinate to the Kiev authorities to protect the territories. In this case, it will also be necessary to declare a no-fly zone. However, France can deploy only two brigades to cover the front, which stretches for 80 kilometers. There is also a question of how to react in case of attacks on our troops," General Chauvancy said.
The logistics of deploying such forces also raises questions. According to the newspaper Le Monde, Germany banned French tanks from moving on roads to Romania, which forced the army to use trains. France [in such a scenario] may also become a de facto party to the Ukrainian conflict.
The fifth scenario: trench warfare
In this most unlikely scenario, French troops will fight alongside Ukrainians against the Russian army.
"If we throw our armed forces into the fight against a common enemy, we will become a party to the conflict," explains Julia Grignon, a law professor at Laval University in Quebec and a researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Irsem Military School.
"This would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia," explains an expert close to the Ministry of Defense.
"The political costs will be significant. The president will have to ask parliament for a vote, because otherwise public opinion will not understand the mass arrival of coffins," says General Chauvancy. Secondly, France can deploy only 20,000 soldiers in 30 days, while Ukrainian troops number about a million people. The transfer of forces will be a serious logistical challenge, unprecedented since the days of Operation Daguet (the operation was carried out with the participation of the French contingent in the Persian Gulf. — Approx.InoSMI), when 12,500 French troops deployed at the end of 1990. This will require a rapid increase in the production of ammunition and vehicles. On the ground, both armies will have to cooperate with their different methods, despite the language barrier.
If France had decided on such an operation, it would have had to seek support from its allies. The sharp reaction of the latter after Emmanuel Macron's statement about the possibility of sending troops does not portend a consensus.
Author: Amaury Coutansais Pervinquière