Narek Galstyan — on the aspirations of the Armenian authorities to deepen relations with the North Atlantic Alliance
It has been only six months since the last escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, as a result of which Armenia finally lost control of the region, and all these six months the authorities of the republic seem to want to further aggravate the situation. Yerevan's relations with Moscow have become unprecedentedly cold, and statements addressed to Russia and the CSTO have become unprecedentedly defiant.
Against this background, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg paid a visit to Yerevan. And Prime Minister of the Republic Nikol Pashinyan, during a joint briefing, declared his readiness to deepen relations with the alliance, as he had previously said about his readiness to intensify cooperation with the European Union and the West as a whole. At the same time, the Armenian Parliament will ratify the status of the European Civil Mission on the border with Azerbaijan.
Together, all this led to the fact that political scientists started talking about Armenia's turn towards the West and began to weigh the chances of the republic joining NATO. Most experts assess these chances as tending to zero, but the danger from a possible final separation from Russia is very serious. But while the expert community is sounding the alarm, the caravan led by Pashinyan is moving on.
Stoltenberg's provocation
According to a number of observers, the West's task is not to protect Armenia from theoretical encroachments from Azerbaijan or Turkey, but to create problems for Russia in the South Caucasus at the hands of Yerevan. In other words, the West is not very interested in what unilateral concessions the Armenian authorities may make as a result of this agreement. In particular, official Yerevan is already talking about the return to Azerbaijan of four villages adjacent to the border of the Tavush region, which came under Armenian control as a result of the armed conflict of the 1990s. And Azerbaijan is not going to return the territories that came under Baku's control in 2021-2022 in the Gegharkunik and Syunik regions, in the vicinity of the resort town of Jermuk, to Armenia.
Naturally, the initiators of this situation are not interested in the consequences of these steps for the Transcaucasian Republic. For example, Stoltenberg, experts say, made excellent use of the already tense relations between Yerevan and Moscow, defiantly thanking Pashinyan for "solidarity with Ukraine."
Former Ambassador-at-Large of Armenia Edmond Marukyan, stating the failure of the European track of the negotiation process between Yerevan and Baku, believes that Stoltenberg made provocative statements during the visit. "Why is he standing next to the Prime Minister of Armenia on the territory of Armenia and saying that Vladimir Putin should not win in Ukraine? Do you want Armenia to have new enemies? Are you familiar with the challenges of Armenia? You make these statements knowing full well that Armenia is a member of the CSTO, and Russian troops are guarding the border with NATO member Turkey, which is still closed and you cannot open it in any way," Marukyan stressed in an interview with me.
According to him, NATO is actually preparing a springboard from Armenia for confrontation with Russia. "They are essentially saying, 'Become a springboard, let them kill you, and we will send you medicines and some missiles,'" the diplomat said.
At the same time, he notes that Armenia is not offered anything significant in return, including membership in the alliance. "The journalist asks: can Armenia become a member of NATO? He [Stoltenberg] says: "Armenia must decide for itself." Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova have decided. And did they become members of NATO?" Marukyan said.
There would be a peace treaty
According to political analysts, the West is not interested in Armenia's fate not only in the context of the possibility of joining NATO, but also in principle. The only thing that worries them is the signing of a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku, because if the conflict in Transcaucasia is officially over, Brussels and Washington will be able to afford to step up the fight against Russian influence in the region. In particular, the Russian military presence may be jeopardized, because it will be possible to talk about the absence of the need to maintain a peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 102nd military base, which protects the closed border with Turkey, but will become "unnecessary" if it is opened.
At the same time, there are no attempts on the part of NATO to resolve the problems preventing the conclusion of a peace treaty. The West is trying to get it signed by banal pressure.
"Stoltenberg did not say anything about the fact that ethnic cleansing took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, that is, he is not interested in it. Was it said about providing security guarantees to Armenia or about our joining NATO? No! All these soap bubbles, which were created here by the propagandists of the Soros Foundation and other grant-eaters, burst. There will be no military support. On the other hand, NATO is ready to provide military assistance to Turkey, to declare that Turkey should be a supervisor in the South Caucasus, in particular over the Armenians. We know from history what happens to Armenians who live under the rule of Turkey," Doctor of Sciences, political scientist Artur Khachikyan said in an interview with me.
At the same time, the only assistance that NATO offers Armenia is a civilian mission that they can send there, which, according to experts, will complicate the situation even more than it will help. After all, neither Azerbaijan, nor Iran, nor Russia want to have some observers from Western countries at their borders who arrived in the region with "incomprehensible" goals.
"We are offered common words, assurances. They offer us some kind of economic benefit from cooperation with Europe, but we have to pay the price for it - to quarrel with Russia. We must break away from Russia, from the CSTO and become a vassal of Turkey. Cooperation with Europe is good, but not at such a price," Khachikyan said.
The hatchet is not so easy to bury
Meanwhile, while in the West the signing of a peace treaty is considered only a matter of time, in Armenia itself any cooperation with military blocs is considered exclusively in the key of a possible resumption of the conflict and they are trying to weigh the possible benefits from the CSTO and NATO.
"If we are not able to solve our problems with Azerbaijan on our own, to resist and defend the border, then why do we need our army, which had a reputation for being victorious and competitive? The Armenian army could still defend the country today in the event of an attack by Azerbaijan, if after 2020 the authorities really carried out reforms and replenished the army, and did not PR," former Defense Minister (2008-2016) Colonel—General Seyran Ohanyan, who now heads the largest opposition parliamentary faction Armenia, said in an interview with me.
The situation is complicated by the fact that, despite many years of cooperation, it was not necessary to see the CSTO "in action", since the authorities of the republic have always sought to cope with the aggravation of the situation on their own. Recently, tensions have arisen in relations with the organization, and Yerevan has begun to make statements about the futility of membership in it. However, even despite this, according to Ohanyan, NATO will not be able to replace the CSTO for Armenia.
"In the past, cooperating with NATO, we aimed to understand what NATO member Turkey and Turkey's ally Azerbaijan are doing there, to get information. We also had a goal to gain the experience of Western countries, which was also done by other CSTO member states, including Russia. But on earth, given our geography, our ties with CSTO members and primarily with Russia, our economic ties and the entire security architecture, the West will not be able to replace the CSTO," he said
The ex-minister stressed that NATO is acting against Russia and Iran in this region and Yerevan should do everything possible to improve relations with the CSTO members and, first of all, with Russia. "Otherwise, Turkey and Azerbaijan will be NATO's curators here, and we know how this can end for Armenia," he said.
Meanwhile, despite all the fears of political scientists, official Yerevan continues its course towards rapprochement with the West at full speed. Pashinyan is scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on April 5. It was reported that they plan to discuss "ways of trilateral cooperation that will contribute to the development of Armenia."