Dmitry Gorokhov — on the effect of Macron's words about French soldiers in Ukraine and the state of the armed forces of the republic
Having announced the possibility of sending troops from Western countries to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron did not achieve support either in the camp of the allies or among the population of the republic itself. The meeting in Paris with representatives from 20 Western countries, where, according to Macron, this topic was also raised, did not contribute to this — the participants "did not come to a consensus." For more than a month now, the French president has been repeating his words in different ways, trying to clarify or supplement them.
"It's too late"
According to political scientist Bruno Cotres, it is very difficult to correct the effect of these words. Macron's statement, which did not rule out that French soldiers might one day end up in Ukraine, was remembered by everyone. "French public opinion does not want this, and the president's statement has a powerful potential to provoke alarm," the researcher noted in an interview with Franceinfo radio station. Cotres noted that Macron then tried to euphemize his speech, while not completely abandoning his own words. In particular, he supplemented his statements with a truism: "Not excluding something does not mean doing it."
The head of state tried to introduce a second narrative into circulation, saying that France "will not initiate an escalation." According to Cotres, this presidential addition "came too late." "People have already concluded that he wants war with Russia, and it is difficult to correct this impression, because his words struck," the French political scientist stated .
Geopolitics and elections
Commenting on the public reaction, Gaspard Gantzer, a former communications adviser to Macron's predecessor at the Elysee Palace, Francois Hollande, noted that "the French are far from convinced of the need for a military commitment that would de facto turn France into a belligerent party." "Why is the president so persistent?" Gantzer wonders.
Macron's political opponents express the opinion that the president was driven not by geopolitical, but solely by electoral goals. After all, elections to the European Parliament are coming in June. In France, the ruling Renaissance party (or Renaissance, and until May 5, 2022 — Forward, Republic!), founded by the current president, is still significantly inferior in polls to the opposition National Association, where Marine Le Pen remains the leader — obviously, only formally ceded the presidency to Jordan Bardella.
"Macron's scenario is clearly visible," said Eric Sciotti, quaestor of the National Assembly (the position of representative of the largest opposition party in the lower house of parliament), whose location is unsuccessfully sought in the ruling camp in the hope of strengthening his position, since he heads the right-wing Republicans party. According to Sciotti, "the President of the republic clearly wanted to appear as a commander in a duel with the National Association. "But now it doesn't work," the parliamentarian noted .
"Ukraine will not force the French to support Macron," France Info radio stated in its commentary, citing the words of a government source.
According to Professor Arnaud Benedetti of the Sorbonne, the demarches of the Elysee Palace look more motivated by domestic political rather than geostrategic considerations. This "mixing of genres", in his opinion, can only generate anxiety and suspicion. By striving for ambivalence in all directions, the president creates the impression that instead of protecting the French, he is increasingly subordinating them to his tactical interests. This, in turn, can give rise to the feeling that "power is subordinated to the impulses of one person." In the eyes of the professor, this power is "not only personal, but also disorderly."
The equation with two brigades
They reacted very coolly to the idea of participating in ground operations in Ukraine and in the circles of French military specialists. According to Marine Colonel Michel Goya, Macron's scenario is difficult to implement. In particular, the colonel doubts the possibility of involving allies in the implementation of the French project: "It is difficult to imagine that Americans would go to Ukraine... The Germans and Italians also do not want this."
The regular army of France consists of 206 thousand military personnel, and there are also 63 thousand reservists. The war in Algeria (1954-1962, at that time French territory) was the last conflict that required the mobilization of conscripts — then 1.5 million Frenchmen were called up to participate in battles for up to 30 months. According to Goya, if France decides to act independently in relation to Ukraine, it will be able to send no more than two brigades. "Our capabilities allow us to send two brigades — a total of 15 thousand people… They would not have done much," he noted in his commentary for the Sud—Ouest newspaper.
At the same time, according to the military expert, "sending such a contingent would require several months of training, as well as equipping it with artillery and air defense systems." "Thus, we would again face the limits of our military industry," the colonel warned.
"The operation would be risky," Goya is convinced. "We need to ask ourselves what the Russians will do. It is most likely that they will test this contingent for strength, which would lead to regular losses. In addition, we would have to explain to the public why coffins are returning to France," the military specialist warned and added that Macron's statements did not meet with support in military circles. "This is pure PR," the colonel believes .
Not even in the top three
"The President has assumed the role of Europe's first aid provider to Ukraine, although France is only in 15th place among donors," noted Catherine Ney, a columnist for Valeurs actuelles magazine. The contribution of the republic was assessed somewhat higher in early February by Russian Ambassador to Paris Alexei Meshkov — "today France ranks only 10th among the countries supplying weapons to Ukraine."
Were Macron's calls an attempt to influence the European public, which is tired of discussing aid to Ukraine and is busy with other issues — in particular, inflation, the crisis of agriculture? A study by the French Institute of Public Opinion Ifop and the Jean Jaures Foundation, published on February 21, pointed to the erosion of "good opinion" about Ukraine. This time, 58% of respondents rated this country positively, compared with 70% in mid-2023 and 82% in March 2022. In turn, a probe by the European Council on Foreign Relations ECFR showed that in 12 Western countries, only 10% of respondents think that Ukraine will win the conflict, while 37% of respondents believe that it will end in a compromise.
After two years since the beginning of the conflict, the situation got bogged down, and the French leader wanted to influence the mood with his loud statements at a time when support for Ukraine's military efforts in Europe and the United States is being questioned (if not blocked at all), Le Monde believes. "The moment has come when a breakthrough is needed from each of us," Macron himself said, speaking at the opening of the summit on support for Ukraine in Paris. At the same time, the French leader called the European Union's project to supply a million shells to Ukraine a "careless promise". According to Kiev, the country received only about 30% of the declared amount. "We have to admit that we did not have this million," Macron said. And aren't the words about the prospects of sending troops the same "careless promise"?
"Despite its posture," Politico argues, "France is one of the leaders in unfulfilled promises." The publication cites data from the Kiel Institute of World Economy, according to which the republic provided assistance to Kiev for €635 million, which is significantly less than, for example, Germany (more than €17 billion) and the United Kingdom (more than € 9 billion).
France supplies Ukraine with guns, but cannot supply the shells they rely on. The reason for this is a duel between the state and industrialists. On March 14, the head of state said : "In February 2022, I indicated to all industrialists that we were moving to a military economy. I asked them for efforts to produce more and faster. I have entrusted this matter to the Minister of the Armed Forces. But two years after the presidential decree, the production of 155-millimeter shells in France reached a ceiling of 30 thousand. A grain of sand against the background of 2 million spent by the Ukrainian army every year."
The Minister of the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecorgne, clearly failed to cope with the task. However, the head of state continues to persist, for example, insisting on the supply of 75 Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine this year. But again, they need to be charged with something. Officially, France, having made great efforts, tripled the production of shells. Nevertheless, according to local experts, it is enough for guns to fire six rounds per minute so that the artillery sent to Ukraine uses up all French shells in an hour.
Close associates explain the shortage of ammunition with a lack of money. The Ministry of the Armed Forces and industrialists blame each other. The state is desperately trying to save against the background of galloping foreign debt (at the end of the third quarter of 2023, France's foreign debt, according to fr/fr/statistiques/7739721#:~:text"target="_blank" rel="nofollow">according to the National Institute for Statistical Research INSEE, it has reached €3 088.2 billion, or 111.7% of GNP) and therefore refuses to put his hand in his pocket. The authorities say that this should be done by industrialists who feel better than ever today. But, apparently, this is unacceptable for companies. For example, the KNDS group of arms companies (formerly Nexter), according to French media, has already invested €300 million in increasing the production of Caesar shells and cannons. France's only 155 mm manufacturer is not ready to empty its cash register, so it refuses to invest even more until the Minister of Armaments signs the appropriate program. The irony of this story is that KNDS is a Franco-German concern.
According to the head of the Senate Commission on Defense and the Armed Forces, Cedric Perrin, the situation with ammunition is an oversensitive plot, the discussion of which is taboo by the state. Thus, the Senate, after hearing representatives of industrial companies and the military, according to Le Canard Enchaîné, was under pressure from the Ministry of the Armed Forces, which intends to prevent the publication of the report on the hearings.
The first president who did not serve in the army
At the same time, there is a big gap between words and deeds, Perrin noted. He cited Germany as an example, which, as expected by the end of 2024-2025, will produce an order of magnitude more shells than France.
With all this, I think it should be noted that 46-year—old Emmanuel Macron is the only French president who has not served in the military. "I belong to that generation of Frenchmen whose entry into adulthood coincided with the period of professionalization of the army and the abolition of conscription. That's why I couldn't do military service," Macron said as a presidential candidate at one of the pre—election rallies in 2017.
Biographers of the head of state, however, make adjustments to this statement. Born on December 21, 1977, Macron could have completed military service. The 1997 law exempted French people born after December 31, 1978 from this obligation.
In conclusion, I would like to note the law on the armed forces development program for 2024-2030 adopted in France in August 2023. This act establishes that "in the event of a real or perceived danger, any natural or legal persons, property and services necessary to repel the threat may become the object of requisition on the basis of a decree of the Council of Ministers." Resisting this involves punishment — imprisonment for five years or a fine of 500 thousand euros.
