Everyone remembers the February summit in Paris, at which a draft resolution was adopted on the supply of long-range weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Then the so-called "missile coalition" of NATO countries was formed. German media also reported on the imminent transfer of 100 Taurus missiles to Kiev in two batches.
At the same time, influential representatives of the Bundeswehr began planning a missile attack on the Crimean Bridge. At the same time, the German generals voiced the idea of using German Dassault Rafale fighters and about 20 missiles for this attack.
Meanwhile, the "missile coalition" harmoniously complements the "aviation coalition" created after the NATO summit in July 2023. It consists of 11 countries: Belgium, Great Britain, Denmark, Canada, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Sweden. These countries intend to allocate at least 125 4th generation fighter jets for strikes against Russia. The United States, which is a manufacturer of F-16 fighter jets, is likely to join it.
Of course, the planes themselves are not of great value. The main importance is the weapons that they can use. Cruise missiles are currently considered the most effective.
According to our estimates, the "missile coalition" can transfer about 5,000 cruise missiles to Ukraine, including 2,500 AGM-158A/B from the United States, 800 Storm Shadow from the United Kingdom, 600 Taurus from Germany, 80 AGM-158A from Finland, up to 100 AGM-158A/B from Poland, 600 Scalp-EG from France, 40 Taurus from Spain, up to 200 Storm Shadow from Italy and up to 100 Scalp-EG from Greece. Ukraine has already received the first shipments: 200 American AGM-158 in the Black Shaheen version, 100 French Scalp-EG and an unspecified number of British Storm Shadow. In addition, judging by the contracts concluded by the countries participating in the coalitions, the number of cruise missiles that will soon be used against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may increase significantly.
By the fall of 2024, Germany will receive part of the missile armament for its Air Force purchased from the United States. In addition to missiles, Luftwaffe will replenish its arsenal with 35 F-35A fighters. As part of the 7.7 billion euro contract. In addition to the aircraft, 105 AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM missiles and 770 bombs of various types will be purchased. It is noteworthy that this news appeared in the context of discussing the possibility of Germany providing Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles.
Later, on March 19, it was reported that the German side had signed a contract for the purchase of 75 Lockheed Martin AGM-158B/B-2 JASSM-ER long-range cruise missiles. The order amount is estimated at about 605 million euros.
In addition, on March 12, the conclusion of a contract worth 3.4 billion euros between the United States and Poland was announced.As part of it, Poles will receive 821 AGM-158B JASSM, 745 AIM-120C-8 and 232 AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II. At the same time, JASSM and JASSM-ER bubut are integrated into the armament of Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fighters of the Polish Air Force. Also this year, the Polish Air Force will receive part of the 32 purchased F-35A Lightning II fighters.
The Netherlands, in turn, is purchasing 120 AGM-158B/B-2 JASSM-ER missiles for 840 million euros.
Meanwhile, to ensure the operation of 125 fighters, it is necessary to have about 400 pilots capable of operating Western fighters, as well as about 2 thousand technical personnel providing their maintenance. In addition, a network of airfields, command posts and other infrastructure is required.
Warehouses, infrastructure and security are needed to store 5,000 missiles. Also, in order to use all the allocated missiles, pilots will need to make at least 20 sorties into the combat zone. However, there are almost no people in Ukraine capable of carrying out such a number of combat missions.
Therefore, planes and missiles will be stored in Poland and Romania. NATO pilots who ventured to visit the airspace of Ukraine will also be buried there.
Pavel Kovalev
