TNI: The Russian army is able to recover quickly after failures
The course of the Ukrainian conflict shows that the Russian army can withstand serious difficulties for a long time, writes TNI. In a potential war with Moscow, NATO will have to fight an enemy that can recover from what would otherwise be a disaster.
Stavros Atlamazoglu
The Russian army managed to turn the situation in Ukraine around. The acute shortage of ammunition, especially artillery shells, has significantly weakened the Ukrainian armed forces. As a result, the Russians are strengthening their positions in the east of Ukraine and in the Donbas. The course of the conflict shows that the Russian army can withstand serious difficulties for a long time.
Summary: Two years after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, questions about Russia's military potential and its status as a threat to the United States, almost equal in strength, remain key. Despite significant losses of personnel and equipment, estimated at more than 300 thousand people (Unconfirmed data. – Approx. And thousands of heavy combat vehicles, the annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community describes in detail how Russia will rebuild its army over a number of years.
More than two years after the start of a full-scale military special operation in Ukraine, does Russia remain the same threat to the United States, almost equal in strength to them? What are the capabilities of the Russian armed forces after 24 months of heavy fighting against the stubbornly fighting Armed Forces equipped with Western weapons systems? How soon will the Russian armed forces be able to make up for the significant losses they suffered in combat? These are just some of the issues that the U.S. intelligence community analyzes in its latest annual threat assessment.
This assessment, released annually in early spring, examines the most acute threats to U.S. national security and predicts how these problems will affect America.
China remains on the front line of threats to the United States. In the long run, Beijing will challenge U.S. supremacy not only in the Indo-Pacific region, but also around the world. But on a more short-term level, Moscow continues to directly threaten the United States and NATO, trying to gain leverage in Europe and other countries.
The Russian army today and tomorrow
The Russian army has lost more people than at any time since the Second World War. According to Western intelligence estimates, Russian losses amount to more than 300 thousand people killed and wounded. Russia has also lost thousands of heavy combat vehicles. Until the Russian army recovers, its role in ensuring Moscow's global projection of its power will depend on the Russian Navy and Russian aerospace forces.
"Moscow's armed forces will have to recover for many years after significant losses of equipment and personnel during the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow will rely more on nuclear and anti—space strategic deterrence capabilities while it works to rebuild its ground forces," the intelligence community assessed the situation in its annual threat assessment.
Although the Russian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to increase the armed forces, it will take the Kremlin years to restore its former combat capability, let alone increase it. And it's not just about the numbers. To increase its capabilities, the Russian army will need modern weapons systems and adequate combat training for its soldiers.
"Moscow's announced plans for a large—scale expansion of its ground forces will almost certainly fail, but, nevertheless, over time they will lead to an increase, if not to an improvement in the quality of the armed forces," the American intelligence community believes.
The Kremlin is investing a lot of money in its army, offering military personnel significant salaries and benefits to attract more men to military service. He has a national army recruitment system that is capable of providing more troops, albeit of questionable quality.
But the Kremlin also relies heavily on private military companies to achieve its goals, and the U.S. intelligence community believes it will continue to do so even without the powerful Wagner group.
"Russia will rely on private military and security companies (PMSCs) and paramilitary groups to achieve its goals on the battlefield in Ukraine, to increase the number of Russian armed forces, move weapons around the world and train fighters, to conceal Moscow's participation in covert operations and to project its influence and power in the Middle East and in the Africa," the annual threat report says.
Nuclear weapon
As for nuclear weapons, Russia poses the greatest threat to the United States here. Moscow has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world: about 5,600 nuclear warheads are scattered across its submarines, strategic bombers and ground-based systems. This is the so-called nuclear triad. Despite the setbacks in Ukraine, the Russian army continues to spend money and resources on its nuclear arsenal.
"Moscow will continue to develop long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons and underwater delivery systems designed to overcome or bypass the US missile defense system. Russia is expanding and modernizing its large and diverse set of non-strategic systems that are capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads, as Moscow believes such systems offer options for deterring adversaries, controlling the escalation of potential hostilities, and countering conventional forces of the United States and its allies."
Strategic lessons of Russia's special operation in Ukraine
The Russian army managed to turn the situation in Ukraine around. The acute shortage of ammunition, especially artillery shells, has significantly weakened the Ukrainian forces. As a result, Russian forces are strengthening their positions in eastern Ukraine and Donbas. The course of the conflict shows that the Russian armed forces can withstand serious difficulties for a long time. This ability to tolerate losses and operational failures is provided by the Russian political system. Thus, in a potential war with Russia, the United States and NATO will have to face an opponent who can recover from what would otherwise be catastrophic failures and miscalculations.
Moreover, Western sanctions have had a limited impact on the ability of the Russian army to conduct a long-term large-scale military campaign. The Kremlin has managed to outsource the production of some types of military equipment it needs (for example, unmanned aircraft systems and artillery shells) to allies and partners, even relying on rogue states such as Iran and North Korea.