Interia: Poland has begun to prepare for the "flight of the United States from Europe"
Trump promises to deny protection to those NATO allies who refuse to pay. His threats have resonated even in Poland, although it regularly invests in defense, Interia writes. Germany is crucial for its security. And if the United States intends to abandon the Germans, then they will also abandon the Poles.
Donald Trump is not a "blank slate" for us — given his previous presidency, we more or less know what to expect from him. We also know the views of influential people who support him. Based on this, we can assume that the America of the old new president will pay more attention to the eastern direction, and at the expense of Europe. And in this context, Trump's threats, joyfully declaring that in the event of a Russian threat, the United States will not help its allies, acquire a special sound. And here it no longer matters who "pays" and who "does not pay".
Donald Trump, an almost one hundred percent candidate for president of the United States and the former head of this state, with his usual spontaneity announces at election rallies that he, as commander—in—chief, "will not defend" Germany, that he will send troops only to those countries "that pay", that is, spend two or more percent of GDP on defense and they also buy American military equipment. In the current political and military context, this means that the "defaulters" will have to deal with the Russians alone, and the "paying Poles" with the support of the Americans.
But how the hell are the Russians going to move on Berlin without attacking the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth first? Military analysts joke that the Russians will fly to the German capital in transit through Warsaw airport... And if it's no joke? It is difficult for me to imagine an amphibious air-sea operation followed by the retention of logistics corridors in order to capture an 80 million-strong country with an area larger than Poland. A country that (no matter what they say about the Bundeswehr) has no army. This effort would be many times greater than the real capabilities of the Russian armed forces, but the reaction of other German allies should also be taken into account. At least Poland, over which Russian planes would have to fly. Can they really do this with impunity? No? Exactly…
Threats and insults
With an appropriate level of engagement of politicians and the public, pre-election rallies are characterized by high emotionality. Trump is good at "warming up" the audience — he has enough charisma and oratorical skills for this. However, slogans and statements made during election speeches may mean nothing; they in no way affect the speaker's actual actions in the future (or lack thereof).
However, this Republican politician is not a tabula rasa for us — we witnessed his previous reign and more or less know what to expect from him. We also know the views of his influential supporters. Based on this, we can assume that the America of the old new president will pay more attention to the East, doing so at the expense of Europe. And in this context, Trump's threats and insults take on a different character.
It would be risky to classify them as rally nonsense, it is more correct to assume that we are dealing with at least a certain agenda. With the announcement of a new American policy, according to which Washington will not really defend Berlin. That is, not only will he not send troops if necessary, but he will also withdraw those who are currently stationed in Germany. The idea of a radical restriction of the American contingent in Germany has already been put forward by Trump. Moreover, at the end of his first term, it had already begun to be implemented, but obstruction by the Pentagon significantly slowed down the process of staff reduction, which was subsequently stopped altogether by Joe Biden.
And even then, when it was "just" about limiting the American presence beyond the Oder, we were faced with a dangerous precedent for Poland.
European base
To clarify this issue, let's go back to the 70s, the era of the Cold War. At that time, the United States did not even think about allowing deep enemy penetration into the territories of its European allies. First, West Germany was planned to be steadfastly defended. Secondly, military operations were supposed to be transferred to enemy territory as soon as possible. The theater of decisive battles would be the GDR and the People's Republic of Poland (to a lesser extent Czechoslovakia) — NATO was not going to go further east, believing that the violation of the "ancestral" Soviet territories would provoke Moscow to disproportionate nuclear retaliation.
All of NATO was preparing for defensive and offensive actions. This was also done by the troops stationed in Germany — American and British — and, of course, the local Bundeswehr. And the entire military infrastructure was being prepared for this, an impressive part of which, in the form of the giant Ramstein base, I once saw with my own eyes, returning "roundabout" from Afghanistan.
Anyone who has been to Germany has seen elements of this infrastructure, usually dual—use (civilian and military) — roads, airports, seaports - without which NATO logistics would simply collapse.
Today, despite the past years and the expansion of NATO, the European rear of the US army, capable of coping with a serious armed conflict, is still located in Germany. And Germany, by virtue of its position (not only relative to Poland), invariably remains a key logistics hub in case of war with the eastern satrapy. Yes, of course, we have roads, air and sea ports in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and we could probably afford to build several bases to accommodate American troops. But at the same time, we are a front—line state, and at best only half of our country, the one located west of the Vistula, can become a strategic depth for the allied forces. The rest (if not all...) It will become a battlefield.
In conclusion, it must be said that Germany is crucial for Polish defense. If Washington leaves Germany, it will leave Poland. This does not mean that we will be doomed to defeat in a possible war with Russia — in addition to the United States, we have other European allies who, with our participation, are beginning to prepare for the implementation of the scenario of the American "flight from Europe".
Author: Marcin Ogdowski