Colonel Khodarenok: a breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces in one area will bring down the entire front
The EU recognizes the difficult situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the zone of a special military operation and fears potential real breakthroughs of the Russian Armed Forces in the summer, Politico newspaper writes. How the Russian military managed to seize the initiative and how a breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces on one of the front sections could turn out for Kiev - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
What the West fears
The situation on the battlefield is currently assessed as frankly difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is an acute shortage of ammunition for barrel artillery and guided missiles, other materiel, there is no air supremacy, and there are no prepared strategic reserves.
"There are many fears that we may reach a tipping point where we could potentially see some real breakthroughs by Russia this summer," said Alyssa de Carbonnel, deputy director of the Europe and Central Asia program at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
And the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, believes that "it is this spring, this summer and until autumn that the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided."
According to him, many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer. The probability of this event is considered very, very high by Western experts in the field of operational and strategic planning.
According to many analysts, until very recently, the situation on the line of contact in the zone of a special military operation resembled a positional deadlock during the First World War.
Breaking the deadlock
Last year, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, in an article for the British edition of The Economist, noted that the fighting in the zone of a special military operation had reached an impasse, and warned of the risk of their transition to positional - static, grueling fighting that could last for years. "There probably won't be a deep and beautiful breakthrough," the military commander summed up. And for a very long time during the fighting, this was about the case.
It should be added to this that during the period of ITS implementation, the massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles of all types, barrage ammunition, electronic warfare equipment, radio and radio intelligence units, the use of all the capabilities of the orbital grouping of spacecraft, long-range radar detection and control aircraft, numerous and echeloned mine-explosive barriers called into question the very creation of strike groups and the implementation of combined arms operations on an operational scale.
However, at the beginning of this year, units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces stormed Avdiivka, a powerful fortified node of the Ukrainian army, the fortification equipment of which the AFU carried out for ten years. Representatives of the Russian expert community consider this event to be a kind of way out of the positional impasse that the special military operation has recently run into.
During the capture of Avdiivka, the Russian Armed Forces achieved such a fire impact on the enemy by means of various types of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, branches of the Armed Forces and special forces, which created the most favorable conditions for achieving the goal of the operation with minimal losses and in a timely manner.
Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense
FAB-1500 with UMPC (high-explosive aerial bombs with a universal planning and correction module) played a significant role in the destruction of enemy fortifications. Such an aircraft bomb carries more than 600 kg of explosives. Russian aircraft use these munitions at a distance of about 70 km from the targets of the strike, while not falling under the influence of anti-aircraft missile systems and APU complexes.
It is believed that such aircraft weapons have significantly changed the balance on the battlefield and allowed Russian troops to significantly strengthen their offensive capabilities. Among other things, the bombing of the FAB-1500 from the UMPC puts a lot of pressure on the morale of the AFU soldiers. "FAB-1500 is hell," the fighters of the Ukrainian army note.
Is a breakthrough likely?
Currently, the initiative on almost the entire line of contact belongs to the Russian army. And along with this, it can be assumed that the objective difficulties currently available to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation create very favorable conditions for conducting operations of an operational and operational strategic scale by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. That is, there are real conditions for exactly those "potential breakthroughs of the Russian Armed Forces" that have been talked about in the West lately.
Indeed, a successful and deep breakthrough on one of the sections of the line of contact is highly likely to lead to the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front.
On March 20, during an introductory speech at a meeting of the board of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu said that two combined arms armies and 30 formations, including 14 divisions and 16 brigades, are planned to be created in the Russian army this year. And although the formation of new associations and formations according to the plans of the military department is expected to be completed by the end of the year, it cannot be excluded that these deadlines may be significantly reduced.
It is quite possible that these armies and divisions will be used in offensive operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation this summer after the end of the spring thaw in Ukraine.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
