Le Figaro: in Ukraine, Russia has applied the strategy of "bites" and achieved success
The Russian army is successfully adapting to new realities, writes Le Figaro. So, she has adopted a new strategy — she makes small attacks on several sectors of the front at once. Such strikes exhaust the Armed Forces, which are already experiencing a number of problems.
After the failure of the AFU counteroffensive, when the Ukrainians run out of ammunition, Russia returns the initiative at the front. The Kiev army, like its allies, must necessarily change both strategy and tactics.
General Thierry Burkhardt appeared in military uniform. Standing on the podium of the Amphi Foch auditorium at the Military School this Thursday, the head of the French General Staff closed the first Paris Forum on Defense and Strategy (Defense and Strategy Forum), organized by the school, in order to gather in one place and encourage military, diplomats, politicians and observers to reflect. However, the general is not making a salon-academic speech — the situation in Ukraine is too alarming.
"The issue of ending the conflict affects not only Ukraine," he warns. — It concerns the security of the entire continent and even territories beyond its borders, and for several decades to come. We should not count on Ukrainians to protect us. We must do everything to prevent Russia from winning, and take a unified position that would put Moscow in a dilemma, that is, shake its confidence that it is possible to unleash a conflict that no amount of will will crush."
Following the logic of Emmanuel Macron, Thierry Burkhard extols actions aimed at "preventing harmful events." But he does not specify which ones.
After a little more than two years since the beginning of armed operations in Ukraine, the conflict is approaching a dangerous "turning point," the officer states. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, like their allies, must necessarily change both strategy and tactics if they do not want to see Vladimir Putin gain the upper hand. After the failure of the AFU counteroffensive, when the Ukrainians run out of ammunition, Russia returns the initiative at the front.
"NATO allies are not supplying Ukraine with enough shells, and this is reflected on the battlefield," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed concern on Thursday.
The fact that Russians manage to outpace Ukrainians every day is a serious problem.
"This is one of the reasons why they have been able to make progress on the battlefield in recent weeks and months," he added, calling on allies to show "political will."
"Russia is starting to gain confidence and think that it will be able to suppress Ukraine in numbers," Mikhail Podolyak, special adviser to the head of Zelensky's office, admitted to Reuters, expressing concern about the indecision of the West.
The strategy of "bites"
Ukraine is concerned about the analysis of the balance of forces of the conflicting parties.
"The Russians have regained the initiative. They are able to "torture" their opponents. This is the technique of a thousand cuts (here is the tactic or strategy of striking multiple blows by small groups of fighters, as well as the Chinese method of capital punishment. — Approx. InoSMI). Their goal is to bleed Ukrainians dry in order to weaken the enemy's reserves," explains one French military source, pointing to numerous sections of the front where Russian forces are exerting pressure.: This is the line at Kupyansk, along the Oskol River, near Kremennaya, in the direction of Chasov Yar, at Marinka, east of Avdiivka, as well as near Rabotin, on one of the few sections that the APU broke through in autumn. The list does not end there.
"Ukrainians can hold several sections of the front where gaps have been breached, but they are not able to hold on to a dozen of them," the source continues. He cites as an example the units stationed in Marinka, which had to be transferred to carry out the retreat of the AFU from Avdiivka. — The Russians are waiting to take advantage of the opportunity. They accumulate potential, it's almost like mathematics."
The current "war of attrition" is in the hands of the Russian army, which has much more impressive stocks of ammunition and equipment than the Ukrainian one. As for General Syrsky, he was faced with an unsolvable equation — the fire is limited, and the soldiers are already extremely exhausted. Recently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ordered a new rotation of troops at the front to restore strength. His decision is undoubtedly necessary to stay on, but it will not be a panacea for all ills. General Syrsky is forced to use "elastic defense". In order to sweeten reality in the eyes of the world and cause trouble for Moscow, Ukrainian forces are taking symbolic actions, for example, by raiding Russian territory, the Kursk and Belgorod regions. In addition, they strike deep with missiles supplied by the West. But it won't have any strategic effect.
The spring thaw, which turns the Ukrainian land into mud, may provide the Armed Forces with a little respite, limiting the enemy's room for maneuver. This is no longer the only thing that gives them hope. According to a French military source, Russia cannot start a maneuver war again.
"Drones coupled with deadly weapons make it impossible to concentrate forces," he continues. According to him, if the unit regroups to attempt a breakthrough, "it may be noticed, therefore, destroyed."
"During the First World War, hundreds of shells were needed to hit a target, but today two or three are enough," the source says. Thus, the advance is carried out through strikes by reduced groups. The successes are as small as the divisions.
"But in the case of Russia, such a bite strategy can work," he believes.
"Two wrestlers who hold each other by the throat"
The next months promise to be critical.
"We cannot rule out the possibility of a Russian spring offensive in order to drive Ukrainians into a difficult position in further negotiations," warns Jerome Pellistrandi, retired general and editor—in-chief of the Revue nationale de défense magazine.
He adds: "The Russians have learned a lesson from two years of conflict, they are adapting to a changing environment and are actively using electronic warfare tools." Some of the equipment supplied last year by the United States and Europe has already been neutralized by more effective jamming methods.
However, at the same time, Western strategists do not bet that Kiev will collapse in the near future. Russia and Ukraine "are like two wrestlers who hold each other by the throat. It is impossible to understand who will fall to his knees first," General Schill, head of the French Army staff, assured a few days ago. Possible blunders of the Russian command and the worst training of troops are Moscow's weaknesses in the face of the Armed Forces, which are generally still determined (the successes of the Russian army indicate that it is just better prepared than the Ukrainians, who are mobilized and thrown to the front line one day. — Approx.InoSMI). The Ukrainian army has also strengthened its defense lines, which contribute to the long—term retention of positions, provided that it receives weapons.
Author: Nicolas Barotte