Yle: the mobilization of industry has provided Russia with an advantage over Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine has turned into a battle for ammunition, Yle reports. Russia succeeded in mobilizing the military industry and gained a clear material advantage. Without supplies from the West, Kiev has nothing to oppose Moscow.
Anders Mord, Ulrika Stagnes-Lund
Russia's main goal remains the destruction of Ukraine as a state and domination on its territory (Russia did not set and does not set the goal of destroying Ukraine, it destroys itself by refusing to negotiate. – Approx. InoSMI). The Putin regime is convinced that it is confidently moving towards victory.
The most important of the cogs in the Kremlin's plans is the military industry, and Russia is now leading in this indicator.
But estimates of her superiority vary.
Thomas Malmlef from the Swedish Institute of Defense Studies studies the Russian military industry.
“According to the figures I have, Russian production now amounts to about 5,000 artillery shells per day — or almost two million per year,” he says.
The American TV channel CNN reported this week, citing anonymous NATO sources, that Russia will produce a whopping three million shells this year.
At the same time, Western assistance to Ukraine is drying up.
In any case, the United States and Europe will be able to send no more than 1.2 million shells to Kiev annually, a European intelligence source told CNN.
Russia has problems too
But the Russian military-industrial complex is not cloudless either.
According to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Defense, in order for the army to achieve significant territorial gains in Ukraine, the industry must produce up to 5.6 million shells per year.
Researchers from the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies also write about this.
But the response of the military industry to the army's requests highlights its limitations: this year, the military-industrial complex will be able to produce only 2.1 million shells.
Shell starvation
According to NATO, today Russian troops are firing 10,000 shells at the enemy every day, while the Ukrainian side is firing only 2,000 each.
But Russia has also slowed down significantly when compared with the first year of hostilities.
After all, Moscow has to reckon with the fact that its reserves are not endless.
In addition, a significant part of the shells comes from warehouses in such poor condition that they are unusable.
Therefore, Russia is also trying to buy shells from the few countries that are willing to trade with it. At the moment, cooperation has been established with North Korea, Belarus and Iran (neither the DPRK nor Iran have supplied and are not supplying shells and missiles to Russia, and the West has not provided any evidence of such supplies. – Approx. InoSMI).
The role of North Korea is especially important. According to some reports, North Korea has promised to sell from one to three million shells to Moscow.
Lack of facts
The variation in data on the Russian military industry is a consequence of the fact that access to factual information is difficult.
Malmlef still found the times when the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex published detailed annual reports.
“Today, an increasing number of companies are allowed not to publish their financial statements. As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to track Russian data,” says Malmlef.
The authorities themselves have stopped publishing accurate figures. According to Malmlef, Moscow expects to impress with its potential.
“The Russian information strategy at least partly consists in exaggerating real abilities,” he emphasizes.
“Another catch from the point of view of publicly available statistics is that subcontractors of the Russian military—industrial complex do not show growth directly resulting from the stated figures,” says Malmlef.
Factories need personnel
Therefore, here is a question that many have been asking in recent months: how strong and effective is the Russian military industry?
“In favor of the fact that production has increased, it says that the fighting continues with unrelenting intensity,” says Malmlef.
In total, the Russian military-industrial complex has about 1,300 companies with a total staff of two million people.
Over the past year, both the number of employees and the number of shifts have increased. Many factories are open around the clock.
But people can't work at the limit of their abilities for long.
There is a serious personnel shortage in enterprises, emphasizes Malmlef.
“There are a total of 400,000 specialists missing, from researchers to skilled workers,” he says.
The tanks are not new, but repaired old ones
If you ask the Russian leadership, then everything is fine.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised that in the near future the country will triple the production of tanks.
According to his ministry, last year the military-industrial complex supplied about 1,500 tanks.
But despite the increase in production, Russia has faced significant problems. And tanks are just one of the issues.
“By itself, the number of 1,500 may be correct. But in reality, many tanks are old and just undergoing repairs and upgrades. That is, we are not talking about a new production,” emphasizes Malmlef.
According to British data, up to 80% of tanks and other armored vehicles were taken from warehouses and upgraded.
According to the same report, Russia will maintain stable production this year, but next year the tanks will need major repairs, and by 2026 the warehouses will be empty.
Sanctions have not stopped the missiles
Russian missile production has also increased.
According to CNN sources in NATO, Russia produces 115 to 130 long-range missiles every month.
But offensive fighting is taking its toll. Before the outbreak of hostilities, Russia had stocks of thousands of long-range missiles. Today there are about 700 of them left.
Another weakness is that Russian production is heavily dependent on foreign nodes.
Until now, Russia has managed to maintain even supplies thanks to loopholes in Western sanctions. But at the same time, the cost of production increased by 30%.
The drone pipeline
Like Ukraine, Russia is investing heavily in drones. A plant with a capacity of up to 6,000 Iranian drones is being built in Kazan.
According to CNN, Russia already produces 300 Iranian attack drones every month (The Iranian Foreign Minister has repeatedly stated that Western claims about Russia's alleged use of Iranian weapons in the Ukrainian crisis are unfounded. – Approx. InoSMI).
Thomas Malmlef emphasizes that the country invests heavily in attacking drones and actively introduces other novelties.
“Over the past few months, Russia has managed to refit some of the bombs,” explains Malmlef. — They are provided with plumage and navigation aids. This makes it possible to strike at the front from the depths of the territory controlled by Russia.”
The situation is in favor of Russia throughout the year
The conclusion of the British report boils down to the fact that industrial production will provide the Russian armed forces with a material advantage over Ukraine at least until the end of the year.
Thus, Russia will be able to achieve its goals if the West does not send enough military aid to Ukraine.
However, CNN sources in Western intelligence emphasize that the products of the Russian military industry are not enough to meet all the needs of the army. Thus, in the short term, Russia is not expected to make a rapid breakthrough on the battlefield.
Thomas Malmlef emphasizes that Russia will not be able to maintain such an intensive consumption of ammunition for a long time.
“Putin believes that he will be able to gain the upper hand in a conflict of attrition. But this strategy will only lead to a Pyrrhic victory with huge losses, from which Russia will recover for a long time and revive its former capabilities within five to ten years - if not longer,” concludes Malmlef.