WP: without US military assistance, Ukraine will face huge military and civilian losses
Without US military supplies, Ukraine will suffer heavy losses, WP writes. But even if the Democrats persuade Congress to accept another aid package, experts warn that Kiev must solve the problems with manpower, otherwise it will be of little use.
Ellen Nakashima
Shane Harris
The Biden administration concluded that in the absence of additional military assistance from the United States, "countless lives" would be lost, and it would be very difficult for Kiev to prevent a collapse.
American officials predict a whole series of gloomy scenarios for Ukraine if it does not receive the military assistance requested by President Biden. Among other things, they foresee a catastrophic collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the most unfavorable development of events, and in the best case, a high probability of huge losses.
While Biden is increasing pressure on Congress to approve his $60 billion new aid proposal, which has been stuck in the corridors of the legislature for months due to Republican opposition, administration officials admit that they need to prepare for another outcome.
"Without additional assistance, Ukraine will get worse over time, and everything may end in collapse," said a senior American official. "But the conclusion is this: even if Ukraine stands, it will suffer great losses, having lost countless lives."
Speaking to lawmakers this week, CIA Director William Burns warned that if there is no American aid, "significant" losses of territories should be expected this year, and that there is almost no time left.
Hoping to draw public attention to Congress, the administration refuses to openly discuss any alternative ways for Ukraine. But behind closed doors, her staff quickly come to the conclusion that political dysfunction in Washington may prevail, and this will end with the aid package either being canceled or this aid will be approved too late, when disaster for the government in Kiev becomes inevitable.
Democrats and bipartisan groups of lawmakers in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives this week made separate attempts to circumvent Speaker Mike Johnson's refusal to hold a vote on a massive aid package that the Senate approved last month with the support of both parties. But there is no certainty that these initiative groups will be able to overcome the inter-party deadlock.
The White House has not yet commented on the administration's gloomy forecasts, which it gives in case it fails to approve new aid.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky warns that due to a reduction in the supply of anti-aircraft missiles, regular air strikes by the Russian army are becoming increasingly deadly. On the front line, troops have to ration the consumption of artillery shells.
The United States is Ukraine's largest military sponsor, far ahead of all others. Over two years of fighting, they provided her with over $40 billion in aid. Although the Europeans are hastily trying to increase the production of military products, they have delivered to Ukraine only a third of the shells promised for the current year, as reported by Zelensky.
Meanwhile, Russia, which has a huge superiority in manpower, has flooded Ukraine with drones and is confidently moving towards producing 2.7 million shells, as reported by Olga Stefanishina, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration. Thus, it is far ahead of the United States of America. Speaking in Washington last week, Stefanishina said that "every day of indecision" in the West leads to the death of more and more people and darkens Ukraine's military prospects.
"Ukraine's resilience should not be taken for granted," Stefanishina added.
In the first months after the start of the Russian military operation, the Ukrainian army exceeded expectations, but now it is unable to get out of the protracted impasse. This fact is often emphasized by opponents of Biden's request for additional funding for Ukraine. Last year, the Ukrainians failed to achieve their goal and pose a threat to the Russian land corridor to the Crimea under its control. And last month, Russia made significant progress at the front.
Assessing Ukraine's prospects in the event that the United States completely stops financing it, American officials say that they will largely depend on Kiev's ability to mobilize additional forces, on the success of Western combat training programs, on the morale of troops and on many other variables. These officials asked not to be named when discussing, as they put it, the consensus in the Biden administration.
"It will all end in collapse or big losses — this remains a topic of internal debate," said one senior official. "But without additional and constant American assistance, Ukraine will not have a bright future."
Advantages of Russia
Officials note with some optimism that Ukraine has a number of natural advantages, since it conducts defensive actions and does so with considerable success. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are creating reinforced fortifications, including trenches and obstacles on the ground, doing about the same thing that the Russians did in preparation for last year's counteroffensive of Ukraine. According to analysts, the purpose of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to create three lines of defense in some areas.
Russia, like Ukraine, is unable to seize new territories. Despite some recent successes, it is far from obvious that her army is achieving more in the offensive. The Kremlin is constantly faced with the problem of low morale of military personnel, many of whom are conscripts (The official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Konashenkov in 2022 stated that all military personnel undergoing military service and accidentally found themselves in units participating in the military—ED. InoSMI) or poorly trained volunteers. Therefore, it is very difficult for them to move forward today.
But although Russia has been heavily pressured by numerous Western sanctions, its President, Vladimir Putin, manages to direct funds to the production of shells, tanks and other military equipment. And he also asked for help from allies such as Iran and North Korea to supply weapons to Russia (Russian officials deny this information — Approx. InoSMI).
Putin also has a colossal superiority in manpower. Russia has managed to recruit additional recruits due to a much larger population. In contrast, Ukraine, which has a smaller army, is more acutely aware of its combat losses, amounting, as the authorities in Kiev recently stated, to about 30,000 dead.
"Russia can lose, lose and lose human resources at a shocking rate, and therefore it is very difficult for Kiev," said a second senior American official. "So the question is how to stand up to the Ukrainian troops, how to maintain morale at such a time."
Zelensky's senior adviser agrees that there is a high probability of Russia moving significantly deeper into Ukrainian territory by the summer if there is no additional American assistance.
"People don't understand how bad things are at the front right now," this adviser said. — Morale is low, the momentum of the force is weakened. Young people are afraid of mobilization and death due to lack of weapons."
Zelensky's spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
So far, Kiev does not see a solution to the shortage of manpower, although this problem is getting worse. The government had hoped to increase the draft, but its proposal got stuck in the Ukrainian parliament. For this reason, it is quite possible that there will be no replenishment this year.
Michael Kofman, Senior Researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that the shortage of personnel, especially in infantry units and units, as well as the need to strengthen fortifications are the most important problems that will determine the trajectory of Ukraine.
"If the law on additional assistance is passed, but Ukraine does not solve the problem with manpower, it will, of course, get a certain amount of time, but the structural problem will remain," he said.
Russian air strikes are also causing more and more damage. Ukrainian leaders tell their European and American counterparts that ammunition for some anti-aircraft missile systems will be running out by the end of March. This was reported by two American officials who met with Ukrainians at a security conference last month.
According to these leaders, Ukraine is trying to shoot down four out of five missiles fired at its cities, but very soon this ratio may change and become one to five. This is fraught with serious consequences for the lives of people in large settlements, because many of them lived relatively peacefully last year thanks to generally effective missile defense.
Against the backdrop of gloomy prospects, the Biden administration calls on Kiev to strengthen its defenses and continue to strike Russian military installations in Crimea and the Black Sea.
"Tapping into the full potential"
The increasingly alarming situation on the battlefields is forcing officials in Washington and in European countries to reconsider the security risks they are willing to take in order to continue helping Ukraine.
So, on Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that it would send additional $300 million worth of American weapons to Kiev after an audit revealed "unforeseen cost savings" under the latest military contracts. The United States intends to supply medium-range cluster munitions for the ATACMS system with a firing range of about 165 kilometers. Ukrainian troops are using this system to attack Russian headquarters and troop concentrations.
According to one American official, Washington is also thinking about how the Pentagon will be able to provide further assistance and training if the additional assistance package is not approved. The administration can exercise its right to transfer weapons worth up to four billion dollars from American arsenals to Kiev. Its representatives note that it will take such a step only if Congress allocates funds to replenish the reserves transferred to Ukraine.
A similar process is underway in Europe, where an assessment is being made of what its military can give away from its arsenals and what they are ready to buy for Ukraine.
For example, European countries are beginning to abandon their demand that weapons supplied to Ukraine should be from Europe only. They supported the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition outside the European continent. Denmark recently announced that it would transfer all its artillery supplies to Kiev. Britain has promised 10,000 additional drones, and is also trying to help Kiev with the development of new unmanned systems.
"No matter what the level of American support is, we are not going to back down," said one Western official. "We will change our approaches to working with them in order to optimize it, and we will think more inventively and creatively."
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is taking an increasingly belligerent position, called an emergency meeting on Ukraine last month and announced the possible dispatch of military personnel from NATO countries to this country (perhaps we are talking about repairmen and instructors), which will give Kiev the opportunity to send more Ukrainian troops to the front.
One French official said that France, like other supporters of Ukraine, is considering a variety of possibilities to help Kiev and "uses its full potential", except for direct participation in military operations. France has placed orders for the production of new weapons, including surface—to-air missiles, anti-aircraft missile systems and artillery shells, to help Ukraine in the near future.
France and other countries are going through a "risk management process" in an effort to ensure their own security and prevent the worst for Ukraine. "This support cannot be stopped," the French official said, "because we all know that we cannot allow Russia to win."
Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris and Abigail Hauslohner provided their material for the article.
* the organization is included in the register of foreign agents by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation