Colonel Khodarenok warned that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are planning to raid thousands of UAVs
Kiev is trying to attack the regions of Russia in order to prevent the holding of presidential elections. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview with Rossiya 1 TV channel and RIA Novosti. According to the head of state, similar attacks will continue in "some other areas." How the Armed Forces of Ukraine can try to disrupt the elections in Russia, where and when they can strike and what Russian troops should prepare for - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
The intensity of attacks by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on objects in Russia is constantly increasing. First of all, the objects of the fuel and energy complex of Russia are being attacked (only recently St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, now Ryazan). Today, a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle of an airplane type was shot down on approach to the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery in the Leningrad region.
The attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on fuel and energy facilities fit perfectly into the logic of conducting an armed struggle. Oil is, firstly, figuratively speaking, the blood of war, and secondly, a source of foreign exchange resources to the treasury of the Russian state. And this (among other things) means to continue conducting a special military operation.
It should also be noted that attacks by Ukrainian drones on a wide variety of objects on the territory of the European part of Russia, and even more so in the interior of the country, on the borders thousands of kilometers away from the front line, inevitably cause a very negative reaction from the population of our country and sometimes disbelief in the capabilities of the army. In addition, the successful actions of the Ukrainian UAVs on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia create far from the best background for citizens who are going to come to the polls.
Among other things, the raids of unmanned aerial vehicles on the territory of the Russian Federation every time cause a surge of questions in the broadest strata of Russian society about the effectiveness of the country's air defense system and the Armed Forces.
The inevitable question arises in this case - what will happen next. In August 2023, the Newspaper.Ru" analyzed how the situation related to UAV strikes on the territory of Russia will approximately develop . In many ways, this forecast turned out to be very close to the realities of March 2024.
Raid of a thousand UAVs
The UAV itself is a very simple device. To assemble such drones by the hundreds and thousands at the facilities of any combine plant in Ukraine is a completely solvable task. The Ukrainian defense industry has all the necessary competencies for this. In addition, drones can be delivered to Ukraine ready-made, in the form of kits for subsequent assembly or produced under licenses from foreign manufacturers.
The engine and guidance system are critical elements of any UAV. However, getting hundreds of engines from any company in the West (such as the Austrian Rotax or the German Limbach Flugmotoren) will not be a big problem for Ukraine.
And the APU has guidance systems for its drones. They can use either Starlink (the global satellite system deployed by SpaceX, which has been used by the APU to guide UAVs since 2022) or NAVSTAR GPS (Navigation Satellite Time and Ranging, Global Positioning System) for this purpose. There are also inertial navigation systems (based on the inertia of bodies and on external landmarks or signals) that are used in many modern UAVs.
So, Ukraine has no difficulties in mass production of drones, and the range of drones allows them to hit important objects within the European part of Russia.
There is no doubt that in Ukraine they study military history and know what a "raid of a thousand bombers" is. The first such raid, consisting of 1,047 aircraft of the Royal Air Force of Great Britain, took place on the night of May 30-31, 1942.
It is quite possible that Ukrainian politicians and the military are keen on bringing a similar idea to life. To say a new word on the issues of massive combat use of UAVs, and even to compare with the Royal Air Force (RAF), is undoubtedly an ambitious goal for Ukrainian politicians.
There is no doubt that in the near future, attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on objects in the European part of Russia (and maybe not only in Europe) will only intensify. And there are well-founded fears that the Ukrainian military has prepared surprises of a special kind (for example, extended-range UAVs, new combat units, etc.), especially for the period of March 15-17.
Potential goals
In the list of potential targets of strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is every reason to assume that in the near future there will again be facilities of the fuel and energy complex of the country (including gas pipelines and oil pipelines), airfields of Long-range and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, critical infrastructure facilities (first of all, the most important bridge crossings, including Crimean Bridge), armed forces groups and administrative and political centers.
Among other things, Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Jake Sullivan announced a new $300 million package of military assistance to Ukraine, which will include guided missiles GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launcher Rocket System) to HIMARS systems. And the Pentagon, according to the WSJ, is already talking about its readiness to supply Kiev with tactical ballistic missiles ATACMS with a firing range of up to 160 km (apparently, we are talking about MGM-140A ATACMS Block 1).
There is no talk of supplying the APU with MGM-168A ATACMS Block 1A (QRU), MGM-164 ATACMS 2000 and MGM-164 ATACMS 2000 MOD missiles with a range of 300-310 km. But it's quite possible that it's only a matter of time. When US President Joe Biden decides to take such a step, it will also encourage German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to transfer TAURUS KEPD 350/150 missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The German government has already decided to bring all long-range Taurus missiles in service with the Bundeswehr to a state of readiness. In total, the German armed forces have about 600 such missiles.
So we need to prepare for the fight against the means of air attack and these types.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok