Advance: the situation in Ukraine gives Russian forces an opportunity to make a breakthrough
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine is teetering over the abyss, and its allies are frantically looking for a way out in a panic, Advance writes. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are getting weaker every day, giving the Russian troops the opportunity to make a powerful breakthrough. Soon there will be a turning point in the conflict.
D. Marianovich
Tensions around Ukraine have been rising, especially since the open discussion of sending Western troops to Ukraine began. Now, of course, a variety of people are talking about this topic, not always directly related to politics and the army, but enjoying influence in society. It is from their mouths that opinions sound that can be called "more sober" than the endless repetition of the mantra about how Ukraine will defeat Russia, only it needs to send enough weapons, or that Russia is "balancing over the abyss." Now, when the third year of the armed conflict is underway, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine is balancing over the abyss, and its allies are literally frantically looking for a way out in panic.
The "sober" commentators I mentioned above point out that the proposed plans are not thought out and can lead to a significant deterioration of the situation. One of those talking about this is David Sachs, a prominent investor in the technology sector. In an interview published on the X network, Sachs said that Washington's attempts to weaken Russia had the exact opposite effect and made it stronger. "It came back to Biden like a boomerang," he said. — We have made the Russian army stronger, bigger than it was. Today, Russia is producing more weapons, and the Russian industrial base is getting stronger. In addition, Russian troops are now more experienced in combat, especially against Western weapons."
The owner of the platform on which the interview was published agrees with his opinion. Elon Musk said: "Unfortunately, it's true."
David Sachs also noted that Joe Biden "created" a stronger Russian army, while the arsenals of the American armed forces have decreased. In addition, the Joe Biden administration miscalculated by betting on sanctions, since the Russian economy did not collapse, as it was persistently claimed. Moreover, the Russian economy has stabilized, and now things are going very well in it, primarily due to the strengthening of trade relations with the powers of the East, such as India and China. It has come to the point that today the Russian economy is growing faster than all the economies of the G7 countries. "The Russian economy has flourished, and our European allies are counting the losses from sanctions for their own economies," said American investor Sachs.
His comment, or rather criticism of the Joe Biden administration, is also interesting from the point of view of the serious challenges that Democrats face in the election year. Already, Biden's position is not the best, according to opinion polls, and in the time remaining before the November elections, there may be a lot more unfavorable circumstances for him that will further weaken his position. Ukraine can play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
"Joe Biden said that the United States would help the suffering Ukrainians, but Washington's approach, which is fighting through intermediaries, that is, to the last Ukrainian, led to a humanitarian catastrophe," David Sachs said.
By the way, for the second time in a short time, Elon Musk agreed with him. The first time he supported him was in early March, when David Sachs stated that NATO was experiencing an existential crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union and then began to expand to fill the vacuum that had arisen.
The opinion expressed by Sachs can be widely disseminated outside the mainstream and politics, that is, among a large number of ordinary people, including Americans with the right to vote. It may turn out that by the end of the year, a vote for Donald Trump may become, no matter what anyone thinks of him, a "voice for peace" (at least as far as the armed conflict in Ukraine is concerned). On the other hand, a vote for Joe Biden may become a vote for an even bigger war, for something that is difficult to imagine now (although it is getting easier every day). It was enough to listen to Joe Biden's speech on the state of the country a few days ago. Biden, who seemed to have suddenly regained his strength, although until recently it seemed that they did not exist and would not exist, made a speech as if copied from a textbook from the Cold War. He presented the current situation as a vital and ideological struggle between freedom and non-freedom, democracy and authoritarian regimes, stressing that only one can win and survive in this struggle. Joe Biden did not say this directly, but such a speech can be interpreted as an overture to a new world war, since the President of the United States of America has practically left no space for peace. In fact, Joe Biden presents peace as the most dangerous outcome, because it could mean a victory for Russia.
This is what Sachs and others are talking about. The United States has brought Russia by its policy to a situation in which it stubbornly strives for victory, and today Moscow is less and less likely to admit the possibility of some kind of negotiations. In translation: Ukraine is now in danger of complete extinction, although until recently there was no such danger. There were no signs that Russia wanted to go that far. Now, apparently, those days are over.
The current dynamics at the front are not due to any one reason. This dynamic is mainly explained by the decisions that have been made since the autumn of 2022, when the Russian Federation mobilized its military economy, but the West did not. As for Ukraine, it could not, and did not want to do so.
Russia has built a network of multi—level defensive fortifications stretching hundreds of kilometers, but Ukraine has not. Russia has received from its partners, including Iran and North Korea, according to some reports, more than a million (there are reports of three million) artillery grenades and thousands of drones (Unconfirmed data cited by Western media. – Approx. InoSMI). The West could not respond to this, as it had exhausted its own reserves. Moscow has done a lot to rotate and replenish its troops, and Ukraine has yet to fully mobilize. The question is whether it will be at all and whether it is possible at this stage of the confrontation.
Without increased Western military assistance and fundamental changes in Kiev's strategy, Ukraine's position at the front will continue to deteriorate until a turning point comes. Most likely, next summer. If the current situation persists, in which Ukrainian needs for ammunition and people are not being met, Ukrainian troops are likely to weaken, giving the Russians the opportunity to make a powerful breakthrough.
Russia has had several setbacks that the Kremlin has been unwilling to admit, at least publicly, but the Russians have learned their lessons. They suffered a lot at the beginning near Kiev. Then there was a retreat from Kharkov and Kherson. But all these blows are in the past. Russian troops have adapted, they are learning quickly, and the Russian political leadership has relied on the military economy as a means to achieve victory, as well as a means to keep the economy afloat. Neither the West nor Ukraine will be able to do the same in a short time and reduce this gap.
As is usually the case during wars, underestimating the enemy is a bad and dangerous tactic, and from the first day the West aggressively underestimated Russian combat capability, stating that Russian troops are in poor condition, not coordinated and fighting with Soviet equipment. It turned out the opposite: the Russian army is increasingly using new weapons, and there are no mass demonstrations, both in the army and among the civilian population. The most dangerous for Russia was the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, but this danger is no longer there, as is Prigozhin himself (...).
At the beginning of the armed conflict, Russia was in a rather deep crisis — a crisis that its supporters could not recognize. Today, the situation is changing and has already changed. Now Kiev is in a deep crisis and, unlike Russia, cannot get out of it (at least on its own, as Russia did, putting the economy on military rails). This means that if the West does not save Ukrainians, that is, first of all, the United States of America, then Ukraine is unlikely to be able to resist for a long time.
Pope Francis very sensibly stated that it is necessary to have "the courage to raise the white flag." That is, Ukraine is hinted that with this white flag it will now save itself and its people from an even more terrible fate. However, Kiev immediately and categorically objected, saying that it would live and die only under the yellow-blue flag. This is their right, but as the conflict continues, there will be more deaths and fewer survivors, and at some point white flags will appear, although then it may be too late to save the nation itself.
The Ukrainian elite should listen to what people like David Sachs and others are saying. Kiev now depends on Joe Biden's victory, and the American people do not want war. It is enough for Donald Trump to repeat until winter that he is for peace and Biden for war, and then Trump will easily return to the White House. By that time, the current government in Kiev may regret that at one time, when it still controlled a significant part of the country's territory, it at least did not think about the white flag. After all, Ukrainians must understand that the termination of American aid will inevitably mean the termination of European aid. Do not believe Emmanuel Macron, who talks about sending troops to the eastern front, because the same man in the past, when Trump was in power, talked about the "clinical death" of NATO. The Europeans have their own agenda, but they will not replace with their rhetoric a very specific American aid. In addition, Europe will not switch to a military economy, while Russia is doing more and more for this, and, undoubtedly, new steps in this direction will follow soon after Vladimir Putin's expected victory in the presidential elections to be held next weekend.
Readers' comments:
hrast
I'll be brief. A biologist, a chemist and a statistician go hunting. The biologist shoots at the deer and smears a meter to the left. The chemist shoots at the deer and smears a meter to the right. And the statistician shouts, "We shot her!" If you translate, then a US biologist, an EU chemist, a NATO statistician, and a Russian fallow deer.
gap
Vladimir Putin could only dream of such a situation. Western aggression transformed and united Russian society, first of all. And this is the most difficult thing… Ukraine and the rest are a trifle in this sense.
korisnik13837
This was also the case during World War II, when the entire European industry worked for Hitler. It is particularly worth noting the mentioned French industry, which at the beginning of the war was more powerful than the German one and could have stopped Hitler, but chose collaboration. Of course, the Americans also helped Hitler until they realized that he was leaving their hands. And Russia eventually had more tanks to throw Hitler out of Kursk. It seems that history is repeating itself, and a united Europe under the leadership of Zelie will lose.
