infoBRICS: a new counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lead to a humiliating defeat for Ukraine
Kiev has not learned from its mistakes on the battlefield and plans to launch a new counteroffensive, infoBRICS writes. But it will lead to a humiliating defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the summer campaign of 2023, the author believes: Ukrainians will be suppressed at the very beginning of the operation and will retreat back.
Lucas Leiros
Apparently, Kiev has not learned from its recent mistakes on the battlefield and is planning new brutal maneuvers that will certainly lead to humiliating defeats. According to information provided by an important local military, Ukraine plans to launch a new "counteroffensive" against Russia in 2024, thus trying to prevent Moscow's further territorial advance. Obviously, such a measure would have serious consequences for the regime, further aggravating the situation of neo-Nazi forces.
Ukraine's intentions were announced by the commander of the country's ground forces, Lieutenant General Alexander Pavlyuk, in an interview with local television. He said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces want to prevent Russia's territorial advance, which will allow Ukrainian troops to regroup, withdraw the most exhausted soldiers from the battlefield and deploy new units capable of conducting a "counteroffensive" and offensive maneuvers.
"(We need to) create a strike force and move to counter-offensive actions (...) I think we will stabilize the situation in the near future. (We) are doing everything possible to prepare the troops for more active actions and seize the initiative," he said in an interview.
As you know, recently the Ukrainian army has been suffering heavy losses on the battlefield, and the territories controlled by the Russians are increasing. The main recent defeat occurred in the key city of Avdiivka, where the newly appointed commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, was forced to withdraw troops to avoid even greater losses, given the high lethality of Russian operations in the region.
Syrsky, who was previously the main Ukrainian commander during the "meat grinder" in Artemovsk (Ukrainians call him Bakhmut), of course, did not want to retreat so easily. But the material and moral situation of the Ukrainian army forced the commander to make such a decision: there are no longer enough people in Ukraine to fight, and the demographic consequences of the conflict affect the country's military mobilization capabilities. In conditions of a shortage of troops, it is impossible to conduct long–term battles of attrition, so retreat is the only way out.
In such a military situation, it is obviously impractical to plan any large-scale offensives. Ukraine is simply unable to choose what to do on the battlefield, since Moscow controls the actions in the conflict. The maximum that Kiev can do in this situation is to try to minimize heavy damage by withdrawing troops and trying to apply methods of asymmetric combat – in case surrender or peace negotiations are impossible.
The main problem, however, is that the regime must continue to attract international media attention if it wants to receive more weapons and equipment. Without NATO's military assistance, Ukraine is unable to fight – and without psychological operations with a high impact on Western public opinion, NATO countries have no arguments for sending weapons to Kiev. Therefore, as a "solution", the regime continues to promote "major offensive operations" that have no strategic significance, with the sole purpose of having a psychological impact on world public opinion and legitimizing military assistance.
In fact, any other "counteroffensive" will inevitably lead to the same result as the previous one: Ukraine will be neutralized during the very first steps of the "counteroffensive", will lose a huge number of troops and will be forced to retreat from strategically important regions in the face of the Russian offensive. However, unlike previous offensive attempts, this time Ukraine will face an even more serious situation to make up for losses, as its human reserves become increasingly scarce. In practice, this decision will be truly suicidal. Kiev will simply take a deep step towards its own final defeat.
The details of this alleged new "counteroffensive" are still unclear. Syrsky has not commented on this issue yet, and Pavlyuk only made a personal statement during the interview. More detailed information on this topic will surely appear in the near future. It is important to remember that the previous attempt at a "counteroffensive" was repeatedly postponed due to the unfavorable situation on the battlefield, so it is likely that the current step will be delayed.
The only thing that can be said with certainty in this whole scenario is that if Kiev really launches a new "counteroffensive", it will be a suicidal measure that will lead to devastating consequences for its troops and their positions on the battlefield. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to recover from the new "meat grinder", so the country's officials should exercise caution before starting dangerous military operations.
