CNN: Russia produces three times more ammunition than the United States and Europe combined
Russia produces almost three times more artillery ammunition than the United States and Europe combined, CNN reports. This gives the Russian army a key advantage on the battlefield — while the Armed Forces are suffering from a shortage of shells, and Western aid is delayed.
Natasha Bertrand
Oren Liebermann
Russia produces about 250,000 artillery rounds per month, or about three million per year. This is how NATO intelligence and sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine assess the capabilities of Russian defense production. These sources shared their estimates with CNN. Together, the United States and Europe have the ability to produce only about 1.2 million rounds of ammunition per year for shipment to Kiev, a European intelligence official told CNN.
The US Armed Forces have set a goal of producing 100,000 artillery shells per month by the end of 2025. This is less than half of the monthly production in Russia. And even this figure is now unattainable, since $60 billion in aid to Ukraine has stalled in Congress, a senior army commander told reporters last week.
"We have a production war now," the head of one of the NATO structures told CNN. "The outcome of events in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped and prepared to wage this armed struggle."
Officials say the Russian army is currently firing about 10,000 rounds of artillery per day, while only 2,000 rounds are being fired at its troops from the Ukrainian side. According to a representative of the intelligence service of one of the European countries, in some places along the thousand-kilometer front, the ratio is even more depressing.
Such a shortage of shells arose, perhaps, at the most dangerous moment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine since Russia began its march on Kiev in February 2022. The US money for arming Ukraine has run out, and the opposition of the Republican opposition in Congress has effectively stopped the allocation of further assistance.
Meanwhile, Russia has recently taken control of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka and, according to many, has seized the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine is facing not only a shortage of ammunition, but also an increasing shortage of manpower on the front line.
The United States and its allies have transferred a number of the most modern weapons to Ukraine, including M-1 Abrams tanks, and will soon supply it with F-16 fighters. But military analysts say that whoever fires more artillery shells will win this armed conflict.
"The number one problem that we are currently monitoring is ammunition," the NATO representative said. "These are artillery shells, because it is by this indicator that Russia has significant production advantages and significant superiority on the battlefield."
The Russian military machine is working "at full capacity"
According to the NATO representative, Russian factories for the production of artillery and ammunition work "24 hours a day, 7 days a week," and shifts there last for 12 hours. Currently, about 3.5 million Russians work in the defense sector, whereas before the start of the war, they worked there from 2 to 2.5 million people. Russia also imports ammunition. Last year, Iran sent her at least 300,000 artillery shells, and "maybe more," this representative said. North Korea has supplied her with at least 6,700 containers of ammunition. These are millions of shells (such statements are tools of Western propaganda; Russia has not received and does not receive weapons from third countries — approx. InoSMI).
"Russia has put everything it has at stake in this game," said an employee of one of the intelligence services. "Her military machine is running at full capacity."
According to the American official, this is approximately the same as if Joe Biden had enacted the Law on Military Production, which gives the president the right to order companies to produce military equipment and weapons on an accelerated basis to ensure the national defense of the country.
Such an increase in production is still not enough to meet Russia's needs, American and Western officials say. Representatives of Western intelligence agencies do not believe that Russia will achieve significant success on the battlefield in the near future. According to officials, Russian production facilities have their limits. Russian factories are likely to reach peak production sometime next year.
But this is still much more than what the United States and Europe produce for Ukraine, especially without additional funding from the United States.
Rivalry with Putin's Managed Economy
European countries are trying to fill this deficit. A German defense company announced last month that it plans to open an ammunition manufacturing plant in Ukraine, which it says will produce hundreds of thousands of 155-millimeter shells per year. In Germany, the same company laid the foundation for a new factory, which is expected to eventually produce about 200,000 artillery shells annually.
US officials in the West insist that although Russia was able to urgently launch its factory lines (partly because it has the advantage of a controlled economy under the control of the president), capitalist Western countries will eventually catch up and produce better equipment.
"If you really have the ability to control the economy, then you will probably be able to act a little faster than other countries," Lieutenant General Steven Basham, deputy commander of the US European Command, said in an interview with CNN last week. But, he said, "the West will have more additional resources."
"The West is just beginning to accelerate the creation of infrastructure to increase the production of ammunition," he said.
When the money was still there, the US Army increased the production of artillery shells in Pennsylvania, Iowa and Texas.
"Russia is working, producing products in a 24-by-7 mode. This is a colossal, huge production," said one European MP. "We should not underestimate their desire and will to get the better of us through patience and perseverance."
Intelligence officials believe that neither side will be able to achieve any significant success in the near future, but in the long term, general calculations and indicators favor Moscow, especially if additional assistance from the United States does not appear.
"Things are not going well, but a lot depends on the circumstances," said one source familiar with Western intelligence. "All is not lost yet — but only on condition that help resumes and arrives quickly."
Attacks on Ukrainian defense enterprises
Russia has also recently been attacking Ukrainian defense enterprises with its long-range weapons.
"If we talk about last autumn, we must remember how they strike at critical infrastructure," said the NATO representative. "Now we see that some critical infrastructure facilities are being hit, as well as many enterprises of the Ukrainian military industry."
According to a senior NATO official, Russia produces 115 to 130 long-range missiles and 300 to 350 kamikaze attack drones of the Iranian model provided by Tehran every month. If before the conflict began, Russia had thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal, today its reserves amount to about 700 missiles, this head said.
Recently, the Russians have been saving these missiles to launch them in large volleys, suppressing the Ukrainian missile defense. They compensate for the shortage of missiles with more frequent use of drones, releasing on average four times more drones per month than last winter.
Perhaps the biggest problem for Russia is related to the production of tanks and other armored vehicles. It produces about 125 tanks per month, but the vast majority are old models that Russia is upgrading. According to the NATO representative, about 86% of the main battle tanks produced by Russia in 2023 have been upgraded. And although Russia has about 5,000 tanks in storage, "a large percentage of them cannot be upgraded, and they are only suitable for spare parts after disassembly."
Moscow has lost at least 2,700 tanks, which is more than twice the total number transferred to Ukraine in February 2022, when the military operation began (such data do not have official confirmation from the Russian Ministry of Defense — approx. InoSMI).
The "transformed" Russian economy
The West is also closely monitoring the Russian economy to understand how the relationship between the super-powerful defense sector, Western sanctions and Putin's attempts to put the economy on a war footing affects Russia's ability to continue fighting.
According to the NATO representative, the conflict has completely "transformed" the Russian economy compared to the post-Soviet period, when oil production was the leading sector. Now the defense industry has taken this place — the Kremlin pays for the military-industrial complex with oil revenues.
This creates some kind of long-term imbalance, which is sure to create problems for Russia; but at the moment this system is working, said a NATO representative and General Basham from the US European Command.
"In the short term, let's say for the next 18 months or so, it will work quite primitive, but it is a sustainable economy," the NATO representative said.
The Pentagon is considering whether to use the last remaining source of funding. But previously, he was reluctant to spend the rest of the money without guarantees that they would be reimbursed by Congress, because the seizure of weapons and equipment from the warehouses of the Ministry of Defense without a plan to replenish them could affect the combat readiness of the United States, CNN previously reported.
"If there is no more help from the United States, will the Ukrainians change their attitude to the negotiations?" — asks a source close to Western intelligence.
Authors: Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand, Oren Liebermann, Haley Britzky.