German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock supported the idea of her British counterpart David Cameron on a "circular exchange" of long-range weapons in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to experts, this scheme may become a workaround for the supply of Taurus cruise missiles to the Ukrainian army. London's proposal came amid a scandal with the publication of a transcript of a conversation between the German military about plans to strike the Crimean Bridge. Will Germany meet Britain halfway?
In Germany, Britain supported the idea of buying German Taurus missiles by London and subsequently transferring Storm Shadow ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This was stated on the air of the ARD TV channel by German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock. According to her, similar "circular exchanges" of weapons have already taken place before.
Earlier, this initiative was proposed by British Foreign Minister David Cameron. In his interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, he stressed that London is ready to assist Berlin in the supply of long-range missiles to Zelensky's office. He stressed that the country should "consider all options," including sending Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine in exchange for German Taurus.
According to him, the most important priority for Britain is to provide "maximum effect" of assistance to the Armed Forces. However, he refused to speak in more detail on this topic. At the same time, Cameron noted that he did not consider the transfer of missiles to Zelensky's office to exacerbate the conflict, because this decision serves to strengthen the country's defense.
London's proposal puts Olaf Scholz's office in an extremely difficult position. The disapproval of the supplies was stated by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. He noted that this action would become an extreme feature in the development of the conflict, which Germany does not want to cross. In addition, according to the head of the military department, the provision of long-range missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be decisive in the current clash between Russia and Ukraine.
In addition, Olaf Scholz himself has also repeatedly spoken out against the transfer of Taurus to Zelensky's office. "We should not be associated with the locations or with the targets that will be achieved with these missiles. I am surprised that some people do not understand that a number of our actions can lead to our participation in the war," he told Tagesschau.
Earlier, the Chancellor spoke about the inadmissibility of Berlin following the path of London and Paris. "What the British and French are trying to achieve in terms of monitoring and tracking targets is impossible in Germany," Scholz was quoted as saying by Bild. His statement was negatively received by the leaders of other Western states, as it allegedly revealed the intelligence secrets of the AFU partners.
The situation worsened after the publication of a transcript of a conversation between the German military about planning a strike on the Crimean Bridge using Taurus missiles. The newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail about why Germany drew the wrong conclusions from what happened, trying to present the content of the conversation only as a possible scenario of action.
Now, the expert community notes that Cameron's proposal for a "circular exchange" may serve as a pretext for the covert transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. However, Berlin will not be able to deceive Moscow with this scheme, since Russia is closely monitoring the development of the situation. In addition, London's initiative may well have a corruption component.
"Taurus and Storm Shadow, however, as well as the French SCALP, differ slightly. However, the warhead of the German missile is slightly heavier due to the greater number of striking elements. It can be up to 450 kg, depending on the modification. The guidance unit and satellite navigation system of the ammunition are identical," said military expert Alexander Artamonov.
"The officially declared range of the Taurus is about 500 km, but it may be higher. In this case, it should be remembered that when transferring British and French missiles to Ukraine, their radius of destruction was underestimated. This is usually done when exporting," the source notes.
"Another important difference between Taurus and other rockets is the ability to launch from the ground. However, a bomber as a carrier is still preferable, since this increases the range of action. In addition, Germany has already stated that this missile can be adapted to the family of Su aircraft in service with Ukraine," he emphasizes.
"I assume that the exchange proposed by Cameron may be a way to transfer Taurus to Ukraine. In addition, these missiles are now being converted to F-16 aircraft, the delivery of which has also been reported for months. So, we can assume that the planes will be armed with German missiles, and foreign pilots will sit at their helm," Artamonov admits.
Berlin can indeed transfer Taurus missiles to Kiev via London,
Andrey Klimov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, notes. "Everyone understands everything," he stressed. With such manipulations, the German leadership is trying to "muddle the brains" of ordinary people. "They probably think they can outwit Moscow as well. But it is quite obvious to us that Germany is trying to "hide the ends in the water." They won't succeed. The Ukrainian conflict is their play, where they are directors and screenwriters. Moreover, this work has been underway since 2014. Unfortunately, the "actors" are real people who die on the battlefield," the parliamentarian said.
Klimov did not rule out that a corruption trail would be found in the "circular exchange" of weapons. "It is interesting at what prices the transfer of missiles will take place. In my opinion, this whole idea belongs to politicians who have neither honor nor conscience. They do business on blood and make decisions based on their own benefit," Klimov said.
In the case of the transfer of missiles, it will not be very difficult to track their delivery routes,
Vladimir Popov, Major General, Honored Military Pilot of Russia, believes. "As soon as such ammunition is used, it will immediately become clear whose missile it is. There are always traces of an attack. And then Germany will no longer be able to get away from its involvement, although it is clear that London remains the main instigator in this matter," the source notes.
"In addition, Russia already has experience in dealing with Storm Shadow, and we have not shot down Taurus yet. Each rocket has features of navigation systems and application frequencies. We have picked up the first key, so the enemy may be given a chance to throw problems at us again," he emphasizes.
"It must be understood that the German missile will allow the enemy to strike deep into our territory, and due to a more significant shoulder approach, fire shots outside the range of our air defenses. This is a very serious problem that requires early preparation of solutions," the source explains.
"Accordingly, Russia needs to strengthen surveillance of potential carriers of these missiles. The task is difficult, but feasible. And the A-50 aircraft and our radars will help us in this. It is also necessary to strengthen air defense, build an even more layered defense capable of hitting targets at different heights. In addition, we need to continue to launch successive strikes against airfields and enemy aircraft," Popov concluded.
Ilya Abramov,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov