General Patsek: The West has started a kind of game with Russia in Ukraine
NATO has included Ukraine in its interoperability system, General Bohuslav Patsek said in an interview with RMF FM. There is no question of offensive actions and sending troops. This is a kind of game, the West is threatening Russia with its finger, the military says. Moscow warns him against more decisive actions.
Against the background of the ongoing Russian offensive in Ukraine, the world is facing the risk of an escalation of the conflict. Vladimir Putin claims that the West has already lost, and the Financial Times reports that Russia has lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. "Russia is frightening. There are no signs that the principles of using nuclear weapons have changed," General Boguslaw Pacek said. In a conversation with Piotr Salak, he analyzed the current situation at the front and presented possible scenarios for further developments.
Russia lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons
According to Russian military documents published on Thursday, February 29 by the Financial Times, the Kremlin may use nuclear weapons at an early stage of a conflict with another country. Has there really been a change in the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons, or are such reports just another Russian horror story?
General Bohuslav Patsek emphasizes that both Russia and the West are using a deterrence strategy. "Russia is frightening. I have no doubt about it. There are no signs that the principles of using nuclear weapons have changed," the expert believes.
According to him, the current Russian concept of the use of nuclear weapons gives Russia sufficient freedom of action. "According to this concept, Russia can use nuclear weapons when it considers that it can lose in the conflict," the general explained.
"Ukraine's inclusion in the NATO interoperability system is a serious signal"
Recently, we have seen increased activity in Western countries, which can be interpreted as a direct response to the Russian policy of intimidation. According to General Bohuslav Patsek, reports of a decrease in the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons have an impact on Western decisions.
"In fact, this rhetoric does not change much, but the leaders of Western countries hear it and, of course, it has a certain impact on their behavior. Russia wants to warn the West against more decisive, offensive actions. And he has been taking them lately," the military said, referring to Ukraine's inclusion in the NATO interoperability system.
"This is a serious signal (..) It means that NATO has decided on possible joint military action with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if necessary. This means Ukraine's access to a wide range of opportunities within the Alliance at the strategic level, and for the Alliance — interaction with the relevant resources of Ukraine. I think that this signal was taken seriously by Russia," General Patsek said.
Does interoperability imply the presence of a certain number of Western troops on the territory of Ukraine? The expert replied that it was difficult to imagine a situation in which these troops would not be there. At the same time, he believes that the Western presence should not be limited only to the military.
"It doesn't have to be soldiers, we are also talking about civilians, for example, employees of companies producing sophisticated Western weapons. I mean high-tech equipment, its maintenance and repair. I know from my own experience (which is more related to peacekeeping operations than to war) how often there is a need to seek help from someone who provides sophisticated technologies and modern weapons," the expert said.
General Patsek stressed that the official position of NATO on cooperation with Ukraine does not provide for direct military participation of member states.
"Interoperability does not mean any offensive actions on the part of the West, sending troops and so on. In my opinion, this is also a kind of game on the part of the West, as if the West is threatening Russia with a finger. And Russia also does not know how serious and real this is," the military said.
Significant superiority of Russian troops
Pyotr Salyak asked the guest to comment on the current situation at the front. The general replied that the Russians' target was not only Kharkov.
"The goal of the Russian offensive, and this is a minimum plan, is to occupy all regions of eastern Ukraine from the north, from the Kharkiv region to the south, possibly including Odessa. Although it is not particularly voiced today, such signals are received from time to time. This minimum plan for Ukraine would, of course, not be a minimum, but a maximum, because if it were successful, Ukraine would be cut off from the Black Sea," General Patsek explained. According to him, regular attacks in the direction of Kharkov confirm that Russia has not abandoned this area despite the fact that it had to retreat from here earlier.
"Russia has a great advantage along the entire front line," the expert said, noting that Ukraine did not have time to prepare for defense, although this was its main task for 2024. He also noted the difficult situation of Ukraine, which is experiencing problems with the replenishment of troops, with the training of existing personnel and with a shortage of ammunition.
"As for the ability to acquire weapons for combat, Russia has increased its advantage. Thanks to its own production, it literally crushed Ukraine. There's nothing to hide. The West has woken up and is starting to produce the necessary military products. All states, including Poland, have drawn conclusions, work in this direction is underway, but this is not a matter of several months," the general said. According to him, although Russian troops are not currently operating at full strength, it is impossible to underestimate the threat they pose. According to General Patsek, Russia will gradually increase its military potential.
The turn of the situation in favor of Russia will happen, in my opinion, at the end of April — in May, when favorable weather conditions will be for this. "The Russian Federation is waiting for the right weather conditions to carry out the offensive," the military said. He noted that the scenario that Ukraine can expect was predicted many months ago.
"Ukraine itself has stated that it will prepare for the defense of its territory, for the defense of those lines that have been designated today as a result of military operations. Ukraine has drawn conclusions and is fighting (...). The West supports it, for which it should be grateful, but compared to what Russia is doing, this is not enough," General Patsek stressed.