Colonel Khodarenok: Armenia faces disappearance in case of withdrawal from the CSTO
Armenia has not yet withdrawn from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, although this issue is already being discussed in the republic. At the same time, the consequences of such a step are called a state secret by the military and political leadership of the country. What could threaten Armenia with its withdrawal from the CSTO - the military observer of the Newspaper figured out.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Edward Asryan, called the consequences of the republic's withdrawal from the CSTO a state secret. There is only one thing to say about this (while certainly referring to the classics) - think of it, Newton's binomial.
As you know, Armenia has already suspended its participation in the organization and missed a number of meetings in the integration format. Over the past few years, statements have been constantly being made from Yerevan about the fallacy of the initially taken course of rapprochement with Russia. For example, on September 3, 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that it was a strategic mistake for the country to rely solely on Russia to ensure its security.
If Armenia intends to withdraw from the CSTO and curtail relations with Moscow, then, first of all, the political leadership of the republic, headed by Pashinyan, should once and for all learn that Armenia is not a bridge between East and West (which has been stated more than once, since 1991, by heated representatives of the political class of this country).
According to its geographical and geostrategic position, the republic after the collapse of the USSR is a back alley (or rather, a geopolitical dead end), which has practically no value for all possible interested parties.
The value of the asset called Armenia, if not equal to zero in geopolitical terms, then it tends to do so. The country has no access to the sea, is squeezed by unfriendly neighbors at the moment, does not have railway communication with neighboring states (and where the railway ends, the war ends there - more precisely, it is simply impossible to wage it). And these considerations should, presumably, be at the heart of all strategic thinking in Yerevan.
Therefore, the possible withdrawal of Armenia from the CSTO and the severance of relations with Russia should mean the complete normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the maintenance of friendly relations with Georgia.
What are Yerevan's alternatives?
Further. The existence of Armenia as a state within the framework of a "single voyage" will sooner or later lead to the disappearance of this entity, and this can happen for a variety of reasons (hypothetically, it could be the invasion of Azerbaijan, the actions of Turkey's proxy forces, and various maneuvers of Iran).
At the moment, the first condition for a country to join the alliance is its membership in the Partnership for Peace program. This is followed by joining the Individual Partnership Plan. It involves two-year cooperation programs in areas relevant to a particular country. After that, the country receives the status of a participant in an "intensive dialogue" with NATO. As a rule, an application for joining the block is submitted at this stage.
The key stage is joining the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). The country participating in the MAP receives the status of a candidate for membership in the bloc, and it is provided with practical support to carry out the necessary reforms. Then, usually at the alliance summit, the candidate country receives an invitation to join.
Something has already been done in Armenia in this regard. In 1994, Yerevan became a member of the Partnership for Peace program, in 2002 - an associate member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and in 2005, Armenia signed an Individual Partnership Plan with the alliance.
At the same time, the republic is still very, very far from full membership in NATO, and it is possible that this process will last for many decades (and Ukraine is more than a good example of this).
"The imminent collapse of the economy"
Thus, the hypothetical sequence of actions of the republic's leadership in the event of withdrawal from the CSTO may look like this: normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, maintaining friendly relations with Georgia, joining NATO, complete surrender of state sovereignty to Brussels, complete rejection of independent foreign policy - and only in this case is it possible to further preserve Armenia as a state education.
At the same time, Yerevan could declare the suspension of its participation in the CSTO only from the moment of invitation to NATO, not before.
Perhaps this is the state secret.
And a premature severance of ties with Moscow from the point of view of elementary common sense may lead to a significant revision of bilateral relations. Yerevan will have to say goodbye to supplies of cheap oil, gas, and electricity from Russia.
This will be followed by the inevitable collapse of the Armenian economy. Military-technical cooperation will also be curtailed. Simply put, there will be no more weapons from Russia for Armenia. France, which has been so counted on in Yerevan lately, will not help in this case.
Armenia probably realizes that suspending participation in the CSTO and refusing to participate in integration formats in the absence of any adequate replacement can easily lead the republic to disaster, so it is quite possible that Yerevan's latest maneuvers are needed to get even more economic and military assistance from Moscow. But the Kremlin is probably already wondering whether such events are too expensive for Russia with the current openly unfriendly course of the political leadership in Yerevan.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok