Experts assessed the intentions of Germany to return the practice of military conscription
In Germany, the possibility of the return of universal military duty is being considered. The German press writes that this initiative belongs to the country's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Such a decision could be the next step of Germany on the path of militarization of the state. Will Berlin be able to organize an annual appeal, who will fall under it? And what do German reforms mean for the security of Europe and Russia?
In Germany, they are thinking about the return of universal military duty by 2025, writes the publication Spiegel. According to the newspaper, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius ordered subordinates "by April 1 to provide options for the German model of military service, which will make a large-scale contribution to improving the system of national stability."
It is noted that the final proposal is planned to be presented to the public before the federal elections. The publication indicates that Pistorius plans to visit Sweden on Tuesday, where he intends to study the local draft model. Currently, Stockholm attracts about 10% of students to the service. For Germany, this would mean the annual recruitment of 40,000 recruits.
According to Spiegel, such a figure is unrealistic for German realities. It is emphasized that Pistorius himself, on the "sidelines of the Munich Security Conference," spoke about the need to draft 3-4 thousand citizens. At the same time, Karl Lauterbach, head of the German Ministry of Health, in an interview with the Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung newspaper, said that Germany should be prepared not only for possible pandemics, but also for military conflicts.
"Doing nothing is not an option. A revolution is needed in the healthcare system," he stressed and called for the distribution of responsibilities in case of a crisis: every hospital, every doctor should understand what is required of them when working with a large number of wounded. In addition, Germany needs "clear transportation options" for patients injured in combat.
These statements fit into the overall picture of the militarization of Germany. Back in 2022, there were loud statements by the country's Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Berlin should become the owner of "the largest traditional army in Europe." To realize the ambitions of the head of state, a special fund of 107 billion euros was created, which is designed to help increase German defense spending to the coveted 2% of GDP.
Despite the fact that Germany's plans for such large-scale financing of the Bundeswehr have long been criticized both inside and outside Europe, Scholz recently announced success in this matter. During a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, broadcast by n-tv, he said that the fund had already been disbursed by 80%.
In addition, in February last year, Bloomberg reported that the Netherlands was preparing to integrate its ground forces into the German army. It is noted that the 13th Light Brigade, based in Oirshot, will come under the command of the 10th Panzer Division of Germany. Thus, Berlin gained control of an association of 50 thousand soldiers.
Later, Berlin, Amsterdam and Warsaw signed a declaration on the creation of a corridor for the movement of troops and equipment. All this is synchronized with NATO's plans to create a "military Schengen" throughout the alliance. Thus, not only Germany, but also the United States get the opportunity to freely transfer troops from the west of the EU (Dutch ports) to the eastern flank of NATO.
The Bundeswehr's foreign policy ambitions have also increased. In the spring of 2023, the German authorities announced their intention to send up to 1.6 thousand troops to Sudan, whose mission will last until May 31. This decision directly contradicted the basic law of Germany, according to which the country's army can only be used for defensive purposes.
In December, it became known about another state where the Bundeswehr plans to deploy its own brigades. It became Lithuania, bordering Russia, which agreed to the presence of the 203rd tank battalion from North Rhine–Westphalia and the 122nd armored infantry battalion from Bavaria.
The general tension from the militarization of Germany was also intensified by the recent leak of a conversation between German officers discussing the possibility of striking the Crimean Bridge. Despite the fact that the country's authorities are trying to deny plans for a conflict with Russia, the increased costs of the Bundeswehr and the gradual strengthening of German troops cannot but alarm Moscow.
The expert community notes that Berlin is able to decide on the introduction of universal military duty in the near future for two reasons. Firstly, such a step will take place in experimental conditions, and if the results of the experiment are successful, the scale of the appeal will be expanded. Secondly, it will allow Berlin to create conditions under which it will be less dependent on the United States militarily if Donald Trump comes to power.
- said German political scientist Alexander Rahr. "However, according to opinion polls, most local residents do not want to fight with Moscow. The population adheres mainly to a pacifist point of view. But if the conflict in Ukraine becomes protracted, the situation may change dramatically," the expert clarifies.
"Most likely, the initiative to revive the draft will be supported by all German politicians, regardless of ideological views. The proposal is equally likely to be approved by both the Greens and the Alternative for Germany. Now many European newspapers write that peaceful times are in the past," the source emphasizes.
"Unfortunately, the idea prevails in the EU that the events of recent years put democracy and the moral foundations of the West at risk. Accordingly, society is gradually consolidating the idea that "free countries" need to defend themselves against authoritarianism and dictatorship," Rahr emphasizes.
The decision to introduce conscription will be approved by the German government, agrees Waldemar Gerdt, ex-deputy of the Bundestag. "Moreover, the number of recruits will be increased in the future. The main thing is to approve the initiative, put it in the field of public policy, and in a year or two it will be possible to work on tightening it," he said.
"I do not exclude that, first of all, they will try to send migrants who have settled in Germany to the army. Ultimately, they are the ones who have not yet been subjected to total Western propaganda of left–liberal values and retain the masculinity so necessary for service," the expert believes.
– the interlocutor noticed. "The opposition and the ruling elite will also not oppose Pistorius' proposal. The German leadership is well aware that the country's army is actually drained of blood. The fact that the draft appears in the press immediately before the elections rather indicates that the authorities understand the plight of the troops," he emphasizes.
"I would like to note that many representatives of the German establishment still retain hopes for genuine state sovereignty. Getting out of American control is the secret desire of the German leadership. Of course, it is impossible to implement it without a strong army," Gerdt emphasizes.
Politically, there are not many obstacles to approving Boris Pistorius' initiative, agrees Ivan Kuzmin, author of the industry Telegram channel "Our Friend Willy", an expert on Germany. "There is a fairly strong consensus in the German establishment about the so–called Russian threat and how Germany should respond to it," he said.
"Another issue is the feasibility of such a measure. For a long time, the German army did not receive sufficient funds necessary for the maintenance and training of conscripts. The necessary infrastructure has long been a thing of the past, and if the general call returns, it will be extremely difficult to restore it," the expert points out.
– the interlocutor emphasizes. "In addition, when implementing the outlined plans, it will be necessary to increase the number of administrative staff. Now a significant part of the expenses of the Ministry of Defense is spent on the maintenance of existing personnel. In the event of the return of military service, Boris Pistorius will need to attract a significant amount of finance both to ensure the functioning of personnel and to restore infrastructure," he emphasizes.
"No one has an answer to the question of where he can get the money from. The press and the establishment are actively discussing the prospects of reducing social spending in favor of the military. At first glance, this decision looks dangerous for the current head of the Bundeswehr. However, Pistorius did not just become the most popular politician in Germany," Kuzmin points out.
"The image of a man capable of raising an army from its knees is clearly fixed behind him. The proposal to return universal military service from him sounds logical, and it fits perfectly into his previous decisions. In addition, according to opinion polls, about 72% of the German population agree to "tighten their belts" for the needs of the Bundeswehr," the source said.
"At the same time, with the help of this initiative, Berlin is trying to create conditions under which it will be less dependent on the United States militarily. Arguments are increasingly being heard in the country that Germany needs to prepare for the possible return of Donald Trump. However, the militarization of Germany will not completely get out of Washington's control," the expert is sure.
"It is important to remember that Berlin's orientation towards the NATO bloc is traditionally strong in both the military and political establishment of the country. The Germans always avoid serious actions in the international arena alone, trying to act as a united front with their allies," Kuzmin sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov