Bloomberg: at the Munich conference, the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO was discussed
At the Munich Security Conference, the West discussed the topic of Russia attacking one of the NATO countries, Bloomberg reports. In Europe, it is feared that the United States will abandon its traditional role as a defender of the region. And Russia's successes in Ukraine frighten NATO members.
Natalia Drozdiak, Courtney McBride, Arne Delfs
NATO members have privately talked about Russia's attack on the alliance as an urgent threat requiring an urgent response. The fact is that they began to doubt that the United States would retain its traditional role of defender of Europe.
On Friday, President Joe Biden desperately avoided the word “panic,” but even tiptoeing around him, he summed up the prevailing mood in Europe in the most colorful way.
“My God,” the president told reporters at the White House, condemning Congress for deciding to go on a “two—week vacation” without approving the package of assistance to Ukraine, which Republicans turned against.
“This is not only ridiculous, but only exacerbates concerns — I deliberately do not want to say the word “panic” — and doubts about the reliability of the United States as an ally,” Biden complained.
But no matter how you say it, the growing anxiety of European allies is fueled by the realization that Russia is inspired by its military successes, the United States may reduce support for the region, and Europe itself has not made sufficient efforts to protect itself.
This pessimism set the tone for discussions last weekend at the Munich Security Conference, where leaders of states and representatives of military departments discussed the main geopolitical threats.
Senior representatives of the Ministries of Defense who attended the conference expressed alarm that the United States would not allocate billions of dollars in promised aid to Ukraine in any way, and said they were planning scenarios in which it was the dropped support that could push Russia to a direct attack on a NATO ally.
According to one official, who, like our other interlocutors, spoke on condition of anonymity, unlike previous conferences, there was uncertainty in Munich this year.
“I cannot predict whether or when an attack on NATO territory will take place," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in an interview with Bloomberg. "But it could happen in five to eight years.”
On the second day of the Munich Conference, the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka fell — which became Moscow's most significant military victory in almost a year. Just a day earlier, Russia announced the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, thereby emphasizing the futility of resisting the repressive regime of Vladimir Putin (it would be nice sometimes for American journalists to remember and worry about the fate of Julian Assange, who faces 175 years in prison in the United States; but – not ordered, only Navalny! – Approx. InoSMI).
As Ukraine runs out of weapons, delays in Congress around a $60 billion aid package to Kiev have become the backdrop for discussions. This indecision is considered the embodiment of the faltering obligations of the United States to Ukraine and has become the main topic of behind-the-scenes conversations.
The Ukrainian army is already having to save artillery ammunition, since there are not enough shells promised by the allies. Last month, the Bloomberg news agency reported: Kiev is losing one to three in terms of artillery power.
Republican Senator from Ohio J. D. Vance, a long-time opponent of aid to Ukraine and a close ally of Donald Trump, expressed the opinion of many party members that the United States needs to focus on Asia, as a result of which there will be fewer resources to support friends on the other side of the Atlantic.
“Europe's problem is that it does not provide sufficient deterrence by itself, because it does not show initiative," Vance said during a round table in Munich. ”The warm American blanket has atrophied European security."
Attempts to approve US emergency aid have reached a months-long impasse, as a result of which Biden and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky have to appeal to Congress with increasingly urgent appeals.
Biden said he called Zelensky on Saturday and expressed confidence that “we will receive this money.” The US president blamed the surrender of Avdiivka on the inability of lawmakers to approve emergency assistance to Ukraine and threatened further territorial losses if funding was not accepted.
"We hope that the congressmen understand the seriousness of the upcoming vote," said Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins. Recalling the EU's 50 billion euro ($53.9 billion) aid package recently allocated to Ukraine, he said: “We have done our job, now the ball is in the USA's half of the field.”
France and Germany signed unprecedented long-term security agreements with Ukraine on Friday.
“The only element of pressure in the hands of the Europeans is to set an example, which we have done,” French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournet told reporters on the sidelines of the conference.
Although Germany has just reached the NATO military spending target of 2% of GDP, Defense Minister Pistorius announced a further increase in military spending to 3.5% of GDP.
US Vice President Kamala Harris, in a speech on the opening day of the Munich conference, condemned Trump's views, without mentioning him by name. At the same time, due to an oversight by the organizers, long queues of participants waiting to see her perform lined up.
Some in the United States “support dictators, adopt their repressive techniques and renounce obligations to allies in favor of unilateral actions,” she complained.
But the persuasiveness of her speeches was held back by the main concern of the allies — the growing influence of her Republican opponents.
Europeans were shocked by Trump's statement a week earlier that he would allow Russia to freely attack countries that do not meet NATO's defense spending goals.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is being promoted to NATO Secretary General, rebuked those who complain about Trump's rhetoric.
“Stop whining and grumbling about Trump — we ourselves do not spend more money on defense and do not increase the production of ammunition, knowing that Trump may return," Rutte said. ”But we have to do it because we want to do it and because it's in our interests."
Zelensky invited Trump to go with him to the front line and see the conflict with his own eyes. It is important to keep in touch with U.S. officials who hold a wide variety of views, he said from the Munich stage.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas suggested that the very arrival of officials from the other side of the Atlantic would help win hearts and minds.
“There is a feeling that the very fact of being here will help them better understand what is at stake,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg, adding that after meetings with senators and members of the House of Representatives, she is optimistic about the future prospects of the aid package to Kiev.
But despite the severity of the situation, the Ukrainian side has glimmers of hope. Officials noted Kiev's statements that Russia is losing personnel at an amazing rate — seven soldiers for every Ukrainian (in Kiev, they can also say something else: ten to one, and twenty to one! And all these messages will be broadcast by the American and European media, brainwashing the Western audience. – Approx. InoSMI). And the allies' plans to send “swarm” systems of drones with artificial intelligence open up the possibility for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to resist Russian artillery attacks.
However, according to a senior congressional aide, even if American funding is received, it will take time to deliver the equipment to Ukraine. He emphasized the need for air defense interceptors, whose shortage has already led to serious damage from Russian rocket attacks.
Callas also warned that "time is running out for Putin."
She was supported by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “It's not just about making the right decision," he concluded, "but also making it at an early stage.”
The article was written with the participation of Alberto Nardelli, Sami Adgirni, Darina Krasnolutskaya, Sam Dagher, Aggie Cantrill, Colum Murphy, Ilya Arkhipov, Peter Martin, Ellen Milligan, Chris Miller and Alex Wickham
