WP: EU countries provide financial assistance to Kiev in greater volume than the United States
European allies are worried about the US commitment to Ukraine, WP writes. Despite the encouraging rhetoric of the Biden team, Washington cannot promise that it will provide additional assistance to Kiev in the near future or support Europe in the long term.
Several senior U.S. national security officials will travel to Europe this weekend to try to reassure their worried allies that the United States will continue to act as the flagship of the free world and that Washington is still capable. But why should the allies believe that? Despite the encouraging rhetoric of the Biden team, the United States cannot promise that it will provide additional assistance to Ukraine in the near future or support Europe in the long term.
Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and numerous delegations from both houses of Congress will gather on Friday at the annual Munich Security Conference, where world leaders, scientists and businessmen have been advocating for transatlantic unity and the strength of a monolithic West for more than six decades. Harris and Blinken will make public statements and meet with several senior politicians. There are rumors about an expected, but not yet officially confirmed meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
At this conference two years ago, Zelensky pleaded for international support. It was a few days before Russia launched its special military operation. Then Harris and other American officials promised that they would never leave Ukraine. Zelensky is in an even more desperate position this year, partly because of Washington's inaction. The shortage of ammunition caused by the delay in American aid is already causing more deaths on the battlefield.
Harris and Blinken plan to inform Zelensky that help is on the way. But is this really the case? American officials will appeal to the fact that this week the Senate voted 70 to 29 in favor of passing a bill on additional funding, which includes about $ 60 billion intended for Ukraine. They will use this argument as proof that everything will be fine.
"Our allies understand that we have internal politics, just like they do, and they can see progress by monitoring the activities of Congress," James O'Brien, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, told reporters on Tuesday. "I believe that the United States will do the right thing."
In the Congress itself, confidence is not so strong. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson (Republican) said he would not pass the Senate bill and was under pressure from his party members, who insisted that no assistance to Ukraine should be approved at all. Privately, he tells his faction that he will write his own bill, and this process will not begin until next month, according to congressional sources.
So much for the short-term perspective. European allies are simultaneously worried about the United States' long-term commitment to Europe after former President Donald Trump, during a campaign rally this week, threatened to leave NATO countries virtually to their own devices in the event of war. In this regard, US officials in Munich will try to reassure their partners, pointing out that the majority of Americans still support NATO. But they cannot assure them that Trump will not win, and they cannot be sure themselves that Trump will not carry out these threats.
"I can't make any promises, and I won't make any promises. But we are fighting very hard to help Ukraine," said democrat Jason Crowe, a member of the delegation of the House of Representatives in Munich. "We are going there to show that there are still people in the United States who are eager to participate and persistently strive for America to be a leader."
Crowe traveled to Kiev and met with Zelensky last week, along with Congressman Hill. Hill told me that he is trying to educate his Republican colleagues on how aid is spent and controlled.
More than half of this aid is returned to the U.S. economy through the purchase of weapons or to replenish American weapons stocks. European countries provide more financial assistance than the United States, and some of them spend a larger percentage of their GDP on this.
In addition, the termination of support now will have serious consequences. The Ukrainian economy may collapse, which will cause a ripple effect throughout Europe and the world. Such a prospect could push millions of Ukrainian refugees to leave their homeland and go to Europe, which would lead to destabilizing consequences. NATO allies will lose faith in the alliance's credibility. Autocrats in the Middle East and Asia will gain new strength.
"The American people don't want Putin to win. They know it's bad for our national security," Hill told me, "it's time to put an end to Russian adventurism."
For the crowd of Trump supporters, all these considerations don't seem to matter. For them, the goal is to stop efforts to help Ukraine. And to win, they only need to stop the work of the government. To a large extent, they have already succeeded. Because of their subversive actions, Congress has not approved a single appropriation for Ukraine in the last 14 months.
It is not only the Biden administration that is to blame for this sad state of affairs. But instead of pretending that everything will be fine, the Biden team should be more honest with its allies. Ukraine's help will not come soon. She probably won't come at all.Trump can win. He can withdraw the United States from NATO.
These are all scenarios that many people in both parties in Washington will try to prevent. But if the Biden team recognizes that these scenarios cannot be avoided, then at least the Europeans and Ukrainians will be able to begin reasonable contingency planning.
For more than six decades, American officials have been traveling to Munich to convince Europeans that in the end the United States will "do the right thing" — sometimes after exhausting all other options. This year it may not be true.