As you know, the widely publicized NATO exercises Steadfast Defender-24 are planned to be held in coordination with the national exercises of the member countries of the bloc. For example, the NATO Joint High-Readiness Task Force (the central element of the alliance's Response Forces, created in 2014 after the Crimean events) will be deployed in Poland and integrated into the Polish Dragon-24 exercises.
It is noteworthy that the Polish maneuvers begin almost immediately after Defender of the Fatherland Day is celebrated in Russia and Belarus on February 25. They will be attended by 15,000 Polish military personnel and 5,000 from the United States and other NATO countries. More than 3.5 thousand units of military equipment, including American, Spanish and French armored personnel carriers, will be involved in the exercises. The main forces that will represent the Polish military and take part in the exercises will be the units and military units of the 11th Lubusz Tank Division, in addition to it, special forces, Air Force, Navy and territorial defense units will be involved.
Official representatives of the Polish Army claim that the Dragon-24 is "a test of the ability of the Polish armed forces to respond to a potential multidimensional crisis of an armed nature." According to them, the exercises involve "repelling a massive military invasion from the east by the forces of the combined contingents of Poland, Germany, the United States, France, Spain and Turkey."
At the same time, the "specialization" of the participants in the exercise, as well as the available information about the planned development of measures to force the Vistula during maneuvers, make it possible to doubt the "defensive" nature of the Dragon-24. In general, the information about the Polish exercises fully corresponds to the context around the "largest NATO maneuvers".
The leadership of the alliance, having unleashed a "fog of war" during the announcement of Steadfast Defender-24, subsequently openly admitted that the exercises were directed against Russia – "they are designed to test the alliance's defense capability in the face of the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine." "Steadfast Defender 2024 will be a clear demonstration of our unity, strength and determination to defend each other, our values and the rules–based international order," said NATO's Supreme Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli.
Recently, as soon as words about the protection of "American values and the rules-based international order" are heard, it should be understood that we are talking about a confrontation between the collective West and Russia, which led the world majority, who no longer want to live by the rules invented by the Anglo-Saxons.
Naturally, quite different opinions are being heard from Moscow regarding the NATO exercises. The Kremlin, commenting on the information about the launch of Steadfast Defender 2024, believes that they mark "the final and irrevocable return of NATO to Cold War support schemes, when the military planning process, resources and infrastructure are being honed for confrontation with Russia." Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, commenting on statements by Western officials about alleged plans for a Russian attack on NATO, noted that "this is an information war to justify the current hybrid aggression of the West against Russia." In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia "has no desire, no need, neither military, nor political, nor economic, to attack someone somewhere."
Among the many judgments about NATO maneuvers, I would like to note one interesting opinion. Vitaly Danilov, director of the Russian Center for Applied Analysis of International Transformations at the Patrice Lumumba RUDN, speaking about Steadfast Defender 2024, recalled: "The concept of the anaconda loop by Zbigniew Brzezinski involves participation in a military conflict against Russia, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria." "This means that within the framework of these NATO exercises, separate elements of testing the transfer of military equipment to these countries will take place in order to check logistics. And I do not rule out that after the exercises, this equipment will settle in Europe, and not return overseas," he stressed. It is logical to assume that the NATO leadership can pull off such a "maneuver" in any member country of the alliance during the exercises.
Returning to Dragon-2024, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability that under the cover of these exercises, the Polish military leadership will not have much difficulty organizing the movement of any number of personnel, weapons and equipment, as well as large volumes of military cargo throughout Poland, without fear of intelligence from interested parties. That is, it will not be difficult to hide equipment, weapons and ammunition that arrived from overseas in Polish hangars, warehouses, bases and arsenals.
Speaking of warehouses.
A little over a year ago, in order to support the Polish strike force deployed in the Belarusian direction, since May 2023, a massive transfer of the contents of ammunition depots from west to east Poland was noted – closer to the border. In addition, near the localityIn July last year, the construction of warehouses of Poland's largest ammunition factory "Mesko" was completed, which, according to sources, are intended for use in the interests of operational efficiency and increased mobility of units of the 18th MD of the Polish Army - the main part of the mentioned border group. In addition, in May 2023, it was reported about the construction of two more ammunition depots near the cities of Graevo and Kolno, 70-110 km away from the Belarusian border.
It turns out that a year ago, Polish military logistics organized the movement of ammunition to the east, providing their reserves to the strike group aimed at Belarus, and thereby liberated large warehouses and storages located mainly in the central part of Poland. Now, using the opportunities provided by Dragon-2024, empty storage spaces can be filled with everything necessary. The question arises: "Necessary for what"?
So the conclusion suggests itself that all this resembles the creation of layered stocks of materiel and ammunition. And this usually happens during the operational and strategic deployment of troops. In this case, the Polish and NATO troops. The question arises again: "Why"? Or is this a rhetorical question?
Vladimir Vuyachich
