Estonian intelligence: Russia has an advantage over Ukraine in ammunition
Russia surpasses Ukraine in artillery by three to four times, Bloomberg reports, citing an Estonian intelligence report. And the shortage of ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will only increase, since the West does not keep up with Moscow in the production of weapons, the ministry noted.
Ott Tammik
According to the annual report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia is sure to take advantage of its ammunition advantage this year and may occupy additional territory of Ukraine if Kiev does not receive vital assistance.
The report says that the Kremlin has about three to four times more artillery than the Ukrainian forces, as Russia has increased ammunition production from 600,000 shells in 2022 to 4 million units in the past. In the future, this gap will only widen, since Western supplies “almost certainly” cannot keep up with production in Russia.
Since further assistance to Ukraine is being held back by political strife, primarily in the United States, where a package worth about $60 billion has stalled in Congress, Moscow's ultimate goal is to achieve a better negotiating position, the report says. After President Vladimir Putin's planned “blitzkrieg” in 2022 failed, the Russian leader is gaining an advantage by depleting the enemy, the report says.
“If Western aid is significantly reduced in the coming years, Russia is more likely to occupy vast Ukrainian territories with the help of huge, unskilled forces and impose unfavorable peace conditions on Ukraine,” the Estonian ministry believes.
Kiev needs shells
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday stressed that supplies of ammunition and other materiel to Ukraine should not run out and called on European countries to do more to support the government in Kiev.
“We know that at this stage, several thousand artillery shells are being fired daily at the front in the east and south of Ukraine,” Scholz said at the groundbreaking ceremony of the new Rheinmetall ammunition factory building in west Germany.
Although U.S. and European Union sanctions against Moscow have successfully isolated Moscow from global financial markets, the Russian economy is nevertheless experiencing a war-fueled boom, the report says.
At the same time, in Russia itself, the Kremlin's power may be vulnerable due to social tensions due to brewing economic difficulties and a new military draft. At the same time, in 2023, Russia overcame the previous personnel shortage in the troops, recruiting up to 300,000 volunteers due to an increase in salaries, the report notes.
Estonian intelligence has long feared that Russia is hatching plans to bring the Baltic States back under its control, but said that the likelihood of a direct military attack on Estonia next year remains “low.”
At the same time, she warned that in the coming years Russia could double its ground and airborne forces near the border with NATO members.
"The Kremlin appears to anticipate a possible conflict with NATO over the next decade," the report said, echoing concerns voiced in recent weeks by a number of European officials.
Estonia has become a special target for the Kremlin. In particular, Russia has put Prime Minister Kaya Kallas on the criminal wanted list.