Norwegian intelligence chief Stensenes: Russia is seeking an advantage in Ukraine
According to Norwegian intelligence, Russia has gained an advantage in Ukraine, NRK reports. Moscow has managed to establish military production, and today it is stronger than a year ago. Because of this, Norway is facing a serious security threat, according to Oslo.
Svein Vestrum Olsson, Olav Dovik, Julia Kirsebom Thommessen
The Swedish commander-in-chief recently appeared on a children's program and explained that we need to prepare for a possible war.
The Norwegian authorities have not gone that far yet.
But they signal that the world around them is becoming more dangerous.
“Alas, events are moving in the wrong direction. The situation is more dangerous now than at the beginning of 2023,” says the head of Norwegian intelligence, Nils Andreas Stensenes.
He notes that Ukraine is under intense pressure, and the Russian economy is doing better than expected.
Today, the Norwegian security authorities held a joint press conference, at which each presented their own threat assessment.
“Russia is stronger in the conflict now than a year ago and is gradually gaining an advantage,” Stensenes said at a press conference on Monday.
“Thus, we see clearer cooperation between non—democratic states that want to challenge the 'domination of the West,' as they call it,“ he says.
At the same time, the war in the Gaza Strip has created uncertainty in the Middle East.
In addition, the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) has warned that Chinese vessels are also being used for espionage.
Everything will be solved by the conflict in Ukraine
The Norwegian intelligence report called Focus is just one of three threat and risk assessments released in the first quarter of the new year. The other two were the Police Security Service and the National Security Directorate.
“Russian military production has been established and is in full swing, and China, Belarus, Iran and North Korea are providing significant material support,” the report says.
“Russia is stronger in the conflict than a year ago, and Russian military power remains an impending military threat to Norway's sovereignty, population, territory, basic public functions and infrastructure,” the intelligence agency writes.
Norway used to be considered a friendly neighbor of Russia. But now the situation has changed, and she is perceived as part of a hostile West.
Stensenes stressed Russia's harsh rhetoric, especially with regard to Sweden and Finland. According to him, Moscow also tried to flood Finland with refugees and migrants.
“Therefore, we need to be prepared for a number of comprehensive measures. But the threat of using military force also depends on how the conflict in Ukraine develops,” says Stensenes.
In the short term, he believes, Russia has more than enough fighting in Ukraine, and right now it has neither the capacity nor the interest to further spread the conflict.
But if Russia wins, the picture will be different, intelligence officials believe.
“The conflict in Ukraine will be decisive. If Russia gains control of the economy, gains momentum in the military industry and achieves military success, it will be more willing to believe in the use of military power than if it exits the conflict, especially without achieving anything,” says Stensenes.
The conclusion of the intelligence report is clear: “Norway is facing a more serious threat than in recent decades.”
Faith in the unity of the West
— Many people think that we are now seeing a kind of prelude to the Third World war, when all major countries are building up their military power. What do you say to that?
— We must honestly say that today there is a more dangerous situation in security policy, and events have been developing in an unfavorable way for us since 2023, with regard to threats to Norway and Europe. But it is also important to note that there has been a very positive shift.
The membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO has definitely strengthened Norway's security, and the Russian special operation in Ukraine has brought the West closer together. It also strengthened the alliance and strengthened Norway's security, Stensenes said.
Swedish Commander-in-chief Mikael Buden recently talked about the war in a children's program on national television SVT.
Among other things, he said that Norway, unlike Ukraine, is a member of NATO. The core of its charter, he explained, is article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO country should be considered an attack on the entire alliance.
This is considered such a powerful deterrent that the risk of an attack on a NATO country is considered small.
“Norway is a safe country, and the risk of a full—scale invasion is low. But we must be prepared for more uncertainty. Therefore, we must pay more attention in order to be able to react faster than was necessary a few years ago,” Stensenes concluded.
China and Russia are recruiting Norwegians
The Police Security Service monitors national threats directly on Norwegian soil.
The National Threat Assessment report claims that Russia will pose the greatest threat in 2024. At the same time, the report provides a list of particularly vulnerable targets:
— Persons involved in the gratuitous transfer of weapons and training of the Ukrainian military;
— Enterprises of the oil and gas industry;
— Norwegian technologies for civil and military purposes;
— Norwegian defense and Allied military activities in the country.
The head of the Police Security Service, Beate Gangos, notes that Norwegian politicians have also become a target for Russian intelligence. She believes that the Russian special services have little to lose due to the freezing of relations between the two countries.
“As a result, the Russian special services are ready to take more risks,” Gangos said at a press conference.
Like intelligence, her department does not exclude that Russia may carry out physical or digital sabotage against Norway.
“Russia's fundamental goal in case of possible sabotage will certainly be to improve the country's position in the conflict in Ukraine. If Russia finds itself in a tense situation in Ukraine, the likelihood of sabotage will increase,” the Police Security Service writes.
Among the current vulnerabilities, the Police Security Service noted the export of Norwegian gas, as well as the transfer of weapons and training of Ukrainian personnel.
The report also identifies China as a serious threat.
“We expect that the threat will increase in the next few years. This is mainly due to the deterioration of relations between China and the West, Beijing's desire to strengthen control over supply chains and take a more advantageous position in the Arctic,” the security service said in a report.
Chinese scientists in Norway
According to the security service, China mainly works through intermediaries — Chinese companies, organizations, educational institutions and analytical centers.
“In this year's threat assessment, we announce for the first time that Chinese academic supervisors, invited researchers and students from institutions connected with the Chinese army in one way or another are working in Norway. This activity directly or indirectly contributes to the development of China's military potential,” says Gangos.
The security Service believes that foreign intelligence will try to recruit sources in Norway and conduct cyber operations in order to collect information and to create uncertainty in society.
“We expect that in 2024, attempts to secretly obtain Norwegian goods and technologies from Russia and China will become more frequent. The purpose of this activity will be to strengthen their own armed forces,” the intelligence service concludes.
