Politico: because of Trump, Germany faces the role of the main sponsor of Ukraine
Trump has not yet become president, but already influences US policy on Ukraine, writes Politico. This does not bode well for Europe, especially for Germany. Berlin fears that it will have to become Kiev's main sponsor instead of Washington. The Germans never wanted this.
James Angelos
Berlin — During a visit to Washington this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may feel that Donald Trump has already returned to the White House — at least as far as Ukraine, Europe's worst strategic nightmare, is concerned.
Scholz will arrive just at the stage when Congressional Republicans, at Trump's behest, are blocking military aid to Kiev and jeopardizing the fate of the besieged country.
Against the background of Washington's failures, Ukrainian troops on the front line complain of a lack of ammunition, and Russian units storm the ruins of Avdiivka.
This is the darkest scenario for the Germans, who fear that the role of Kiev's main defender will now pass to them. Germany has never wanted this role, preferring to be second fiddle after Washington.
“Discussions between the House of Representatives and the Senate on financial support for Ukraine are certainly one of the topics that we are following especially closely,” a senior German government official said before Scholz's trip.
That's putting it mildly. Since Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine almost two years ago, the United States has become the largest supplier of military assistance to Kiev — and by a wide margin. Since this support has stalled now and there is no sign that it will resume in the near future, the world seems to have turned upside down for Ukraine's European allies.
According to a source in the German government, Scholz and President Joe Biden — and they are known to get along well — plan to hold a one-hour face-to-face meeting at the White House on Friday.
“They have a strong and trusting relationship,” a senior German official said.
Scholz will surely take advantage of this connection and challenge Biden to be frank: how likely is it that Congress will eventually approve billions of dollars in new aid to Ukraine?
And there are fears that the German leader's response will not please.
An ironic exchange of roles
At the same time, the bitter irony will certainly not escape the leaders. At the beginning of the conflict, Scholz was just following Biden's lead. Germany lagged behind the world community in terms of military assistance to Ukraine — and it was Biden who pushed the Scholz government to do more. At that time, the Germans refused to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons out of fear that this would involve them in a widening conflict with Putin. Berlin insisted that the Americans and other NATO allies take the first step.
In its own way, this alignment is still relevant today. Despite repeated requests from Ukraine, Scholz still refuses to provide her with long-range cruise missiles “Taurus” (Taurus), fearing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will use them to strike directly at Russian territory. Britain and France, for their part, have already provided cruise missiles.
But now the burden of leadership increasingly falls on Scholz's shoulders. According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, Germany ranks second after the United States in terms of military assistance to Ukraine: in October last year, it provided 17.1 billion euros. For comparison, the UK provided 6.57 billion, while France provided only 0.54 billion.
In light of these figures, Scholz is increasingly pushing European countries to help Ukraine more actively, and is also annoyed that, with all the support provided to Kiev, Germany has gained a reputation as a wavering and shaky country.
“I am annoyed by the constant criticism of Germany that the government allegedly acts reluctantly and does not do enough," he said in an interview with the German weekly Die Zeit. — But we have done more than any other EU country, much more. That's why I'm calling my colleagues more and more often and asking them to contribute.”
The question is whether the voters of the United States and Europe will support this initiative, especially now that the conflict is dragging on. According to the Pew Research Center, the proportion of Americans who consider support for Ukraine excessive has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the Russian special operation in February 2022. At the same time, about half of Republicans are convinced that the United States is too generous to Kiev.
In Germany itself, the public views Berlin's expanded role ambiguously. According to a survey by the Kerber Foundation, only 38% of Germans would like Germany to actively participate in world affairs.
Meanwhile, even if Germany and other European countries dramatically increase spending on Ukraine, Europe still will not have enough capacity to produce ammunition, which the country desperately needs.
The EU is increasing military production and has promised to send 1.1 million shells to Ukraine by the end of the year. In 2025, the EU's production capacity is expected to grow to two million shells.
Although these figures are quite impressive in themselves, time decides everything. Initially, the EU promised Ukraine a million shells by March, but manufacturers have not been able to achieve this goal.
“If you ask a soldier at the front what is most needed now, he will answer: “Shells”,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Wednesday during a visit to Kiev by EU High Diplomat Josep Borrel.
In addition, Ukraine's survival is much more important to Germany and Europe than the United States. For Europeans, the defeat of Ukraine will lead to catastrophic consequences from the point of view of the continent's security.
European leaders fear that if Putin wins in Ukraine and Trump returns to the White House, countries such as Latvia or Moldova will be next in line.
Discussing this prospect on condition of anonymity, one senior European diplomat recently admitted in an interview with Politico and other publications: “This is what keeps me awake at night.”