WP: the special operation in Ukraine has rewritten the rules of armed conflict
The military revolution taking place in Ukraine is rewriting the rules of armed conflict, WP writes. The generals in Moscow and Kiev assessed the fighting and came to the same conclusions. At the same time, the analysis of the Russian specialist is new and striking, the author of the article points out.
David Ignatius
Assessing the situation on the battlefield two terrible years after the start of the deadlocked "positional" hostilities, high-ranking Russian and Ukrainian generals draw the same conclusion. Tanks, manned aircraft and traditional strike forces are easy prey for the enemy, and modern drones and digital combat control systems can be crucial.
Russia has realized what Ukraine realized more than a year ago: This is a war of algorithms, in which digital intelligence and guidance systems rewrite the rules of armed conflict. The "fog of war" that commanders have faced for centuries has dissipated. In the new, transparent combat space, the movements of large military formations immediately become noticeable, and the troops are in danger.
Comments published over the past two weeks by former Chief of the Russian General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, helped to analyze the assessments of the Russian and Ukrainian military. They appeared, respectively, in the Russian edition of the Army Standard and on the website of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
I was informed about these comments by retired Brigadier General Kevin Ryan, who worked as an American military attache in Moscow and then taught at the Belfer Center of the Kennedy School of Government. He translated these articles, and then sent them to specialists in Russia. Zaluzhny made similar comments about the importance of drones in an interview published in November in The Economist. But the Russian analysis is new and striking.
"These two opponents draw largely the same conclusions," Ryan writes in an accompanying note to the military leaders' comments. The generals recognize that in the Ukrainian combat space, "no concentration of troops, large or small, can be hidden from the ubiquitous intelligence conducted by unmanned aircraft systems and satellites," Ryan notes.
The military revolution taking place in Ukraine clearly shows why the refusal of Congress to approve a package of American military assistance to Kiev will be a crushing blow to this country. Russia is improving its skills in conducting digital warfare, and Zaluzhny is concerned that the partners have "exhausted their stocks of missiles and ammunition" and cannot "determine priorities in the military assistance provided," which hinders the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Baluyevsky's comments are like an alarm signal that he wants to wake up his fellow Russian officers. He claims that the so-called special military operation in Ukraine "has become an unprecedented test of literally all components of military affairs and military construction." The general outlined his analysis in the preface to the collection of military scientific articles, about which Russian journalist Sergei Valchenko briefly wrote in the Army Standard.
Baluyevsky confirms the point of view of many Western commentators who say that in Ukraine, defense has surpassed the offensive. "Air defense has won an unexpected triumph over military aviation, which has not only lost the ability to operate massively over enemy territory, but is also forced to fly and base over its territory with caution," he writes.
According to the general, the tank "has become one of the main victims of the combat experience of the last two years." He turned out to be an "easily detectable and easily hit target." In addition, "the tank turned out to be very vulnerable to mines." Similarly, "the inability to concentrate troops forces ... to conduct combat operations in small units and individual combat vehicles."
Baluyevsky speaks rather sarcastically about the effectiveness of Russian weapons. "There is a qualitative superiority of NATO artillery," he admits. — ITS revealed a significant backlog of domestic artillery and missile systems and requires priority cardinal rearmament in the coming years."
The winners in this armed conflict were drones. "Unmanned aircraft has rapidly and unconditionally conquered the airspace," says Baluyevsky. Zaluzhny agrees with this assessment and notes that "unmanned systems, along with other types of weapons, are almost the only means to get out of the impasse of trench warfare."
Zaluzhny complains about Russia's superiority in manpower, as well as Ukraine's "inability to improve the staffing of the Armed Forces without the use of unpopular measures," such as a nationwide appeal. He disagreed with President Vladimir Zelensky about the need for such a total mobilization, and this became one of the reasons for the tension between them. It is said that Zelensky is even ready to dismiss the commander-in-chief.
As I wrote after my October trip to Kiev, Ukraine is exhausted by military operations and is slowly bleeding. Zaluzhny indirectly recognizes war fatigue, advocating for more active use of unmanned systems in order to "reduce human losses ... reduce the degree of participation of traditional means of destruction ... and limited involvement of heavy military equipment."
For the United States, the simple lesson is that America must urgently continue providing military assistance to Ukraine. In addition, the United States should focus on the supply of important high-tech weapons. Those systems that cause endless debate, such as tanks and F-16 fighter jets, are not as important as drones, air defense systems and electronic warfare equipment such as jammers.
Russian and Ukrainian generals agree that the best weapons for today are small and cheap systems such as FPV drones with a first—person view function that hit targets like tiny suicide bombers, and which are almost impossible to stop. The frightening truth is that this silent killer can be bought and used by anyone, anywhere in the world. The generals agree that a new day has come in the military operations.
Readers' comments
Naterbob
Besides the fact that supporting Ukraine is a moral issue, that it helps to deter further aggression by Putin, the United States has quite selfish reasons to help Ukraine further. The armed conflict in this country is an example of modern warfare, and our military can learn a lot from it.
Tzzz
The slogan of the Great Old Party... Trump first of all, Putin second, America third. A real American tragedy is unfolding.
2295Suza
It's all about ammunition. Europe is not able to deliver the promised quantity. Apparently, it is difficult for her to increase production. There is another reason. Arms manufacturers cannot get permission from local authorities to expand production facilities!
Stockinator20
Let's hope that our "Team" is watching this and thinking about how to implement the lessons learned. I wonder if the Navy needs to reconsider the role of carrier strike groups? How vulnerable are they? There is a lot at stake!
Thatpj
The conclusion from their assessment is as follows. A larger-scale war is simply impossible. If everyone is so technologically advanced, there will be deadlock and stagnation everywhere.