Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia, and the only way out for Kiev is a peace agreement, writes NYT. But even here he should have no illusions, since there are only two options for an agreement: a bad one and a very bad one, because Russia will never give up occupied lands, the author notes.
Julian Barnes
What a peace agreement on Ukraine might look like.
Last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive ended in failure. Russia's defense in the territory it occupies looks impenetrable. Republicans in Washington are blocking further aid to Ukraine. President Vladimir Zelensky is about to dismiss his commander-in-chief, who may well become his main political rival.
This is a difficult moment for Ukraine. And another year of frontal attacks on the trench lines could make 2024 look like 1916, the year of the First World War, which brought horrific human casualties but produced few results on the battlefield.
The question now is what Ukraine can still hope to achieve. Today I will explain what a negotiated settlement could look like — whenever it comes. And what the best and worst version of it might look like. It is still possible that Ukraine or Russia will conduct a more successful military campaign this year than experts expect. But the most likely outcome of the fighting in 2024 will be the continuation of the stalemate. This impasse will determine how this military conflict ends.
A gloomy picture
Ukraine wants to return the entire territory. But this is unlikely to happen.
Ukrainians believe in their ability to fight back against the Russians. In 2022, they secured the defense of Kiev, returned Kherson and pushed Russia away from Kharkov. Their army is more battle-hardened than any other army in Europe, and has become more modern thanks to the acquisition of American and NATO technologies. They avoided the worst outcome: a quick and complete defeat, the overthrow of their democratic government and the installation of a Russian puppet at the head of power. Many Ukrainians now believe that any concessions to Russia will mean that their compatriots died in vain.
But the situation is very grim. The country has lost almost a fifth of its territory. In 2014, Crimea joined Russia and uprisings began in some parts of Donbass. It has occupied the remaining territories since the current phase of the Ukrainian conflict began in 2022.
Ukraine has lost a whole generation of young people killed and wounded. She is also running out of ammunition, military equipment and military supplies. Although Europe has just approved $54 billion in economic aid to Ukraine, it is American money that provides Kiev's military strength. But most Republicans in the House of Representatives are now opposed to further assistance to Ukraine. And even pro-Ukrainian Republicans are asking Biden administration officials what strategy can bring the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine out of the current impasse. Meanwhile, Ukraine's financing is becoming entangled in the debate over the border policy of the United States itself.
If Ukraine can't get what it needs to defeat Russia, what kind of deal can it make?
Ukraine's prospects
Vladimir Putin may agree to a peace agreement that will give him the territory currently occupied by Russia and which will force Ukraine to remain neutral, stopping its integration with Europe. Ukrainians call this deal a capitulation. But without additional American help, they may be forced to accept it.
A better deal for Ukraine would allow it to get at least some of the land, as well as the promise that the United States and Europe would help it in the event of its conflict with Russia. Perhaps then Putin will think twice about further attacks. In this scenario, Ukraine may not immediately join NATO or the European Union, the danger of which prompted Russia to launch its special operation in the first place.
But for such a deal to be possible, Ukraine will need a stronger army capable of weakening Russia's power. The Russian army has suffered damage, its most modern weapons have been lost, and the modernization of its armed forces has been postponed for years (the Russian army was recognized as the best in the world according to the American military magazine U.S. News & World Report; it surpassed the United States and China in the ranking of countries with the most powerful armed forces. – Approx. InoSMI). If the proposed $60 billion U.S. aid package is ever implemented, it could allow Ukraine to launch bolder strikes behind Russia's lines. Such operations throw Moscow off balance.
In short, Congressional money can be the deciding factor between a bad deal and a not-so-bad deal. A positive decision by American lawmakers would strengthen Ukraine's position at the negotiating table.
Without this, Putin may be right in his calculations that he will be able to hold out longer than the West.
