A retaliatory strike by the United States on the territory of Syria and Iraq threatens with unpredictable consequences
The United States has attacked dozens of targets in Iraq and Syria. This is how Washington responded to the drone attack on the US base in Jordan and the death of several soldiers. The retaliation operation has already led to a new attack on the American base in Syria. According to experts, the United States has poorly calculated its operation and is unleashing a large-scale conflict throughout the Middle East to its detriment. Each of their attacks will provoke a reaction from the Shiite military formations.
On Saturday night, the United States launched missile and bomb attacks on more than 85 targets in Iraq and Syria within half an hour. In total, seven targets were attacked: three of them are in Iraq, four are in Syria. According to the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), the infrastructure of the Al-Quds unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and associated Shiite militia groups was destroyed.
In particular, the bombing was carried out in eastern Syria and in the area of the settlement of Al-Qaim in western Iraq. According to Iraqi army spokesman Yahya Rasool, areas along the border with Syria were also under fire. He stressed that the strikes "constitute a violation of Iraq's sovereignty and undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government, creating a threat that will drag Iraq and the region to undesirable consequences."
Among the affected targets, the Americans name command posts, intelligence centers, missile depots, drones, weapons and other facilities for the logistics of ammunition for the IRGC and their allies. In addition, according to AFP, the headquarters of the command of the Shiite militia forces could have been attacked.
The military used 125 precision-guided munitions, and "numerous aircraft, including B-1 long-range bombers," participated in the operation. Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft also joined the raid. In doing so, Amman "demonstrated solidarity with Washington."
"Our response started today. It will continue when and where we choose. The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world," said U.S. President Joe Biden, who ordered the launch of the retaliation operation.
Washington is taking revenge for the January 28 attack by an unidentified drone on the American base Tower 22 in northern Jordan. As a result of the strike, three American soldiers were killed and more than 40 people were injured. This attack was the first since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas last fall. About 350 American troops are stationed at the facility, which is located near the demilitarized zone on the border between Jordan and Syria. The border with Iraq is 10 kilometers away.
Iran denies any involvement in the attack. According to the White House, the drone was launched from Iraq by pro–Iranian militants and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a broad coalition of Iranian-backed Shiite militias, is responsible for the attack.
Biden made the decision to attack after consulting with his advisers on January 30. The priority was to choose an answer that would not lead to an escalation of the conflict. The strikes began just hours after Biden, along with relatives of the fallen soldiers, participated at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware in a funeral ceremony for the remains of three Army reserve soldiers.
In turn, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also assured that this is only "the beginning of our response" and the president has ordered additional actions.
According to a U.S. military spokesman, Iranian–backed militia groups have carried out 166 attacks on U.S. military installations since October 18 last year, including 67 in Iraq, 98 in Syria and one in Jordan. The last attack took place on January 29 at the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq, there were no casualties or damage.
The White House Coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, said that the United States considers the retaliation strikes to be successful. They, the official explained, are trying to send a signal that attacks against the US military "must stop." Kirby also noted that the targets "were carefully chosen to avoid civilian casualties and are based on clear, irrefutable evidence that they were linked to attacks on American personnel in the region."
The US strikes have caused serious concern to the European Union, which assesses the situation in the Middle East as critical and fears it will spiral out of control. "We always repeat that the Middle East is a cauldron that can explode at any moment," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel said on Saturday morning. "We call on everyone to de–escalate, we are experiencing a critical situation."
The day before, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi confirmed Tehran's promises to potentially respond to any US strikes. We "will not start a war, but if any country, a brutal force, wants to intimidate us, the Islamic Republic of Iran will give a decisive response," he warned. On Saturday morning, it became known about the rocket attack on the American base at the Koniko gas field in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor.
According to CNN sources, the United States will continue bombing in several stages. At the same time, Washington still has no plans to attack targets in Iran in order to avoid a "huge escalation."
One of the decisive factors in the timing of the operation was clear weather, as the US wanted to confirm that it was hitting the "right targets" and avoiding civilian casualties. But after the strikes, reports of casualties began to appear. According to the UK-based Syrian Human Rights Monitoring Center, 18 members of pro-Iranian groups have been killed in Syria.
The Syrian Defense Ministry reported damage to public and private property, as well as deaths and injuries among civilians and military personnel, without providing preliminary data on casualties. The command of the Shiite militia "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi" reported the death of 16 people and another 25 injured in the border areas of Iraq.
The expert community talks about the imminent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, despite the fact that neither side is interested in this.
"Both Iran and the United States oppose the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Tehran was even ready to be the first to de-escalate. Hezbollah has already announced that it is stopping attacks on American facilities. But I think the attacks will continue," said Kirill Semenov, an orientalist and expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs.
The expert explained why the United States refused to bomb targets in Iran and decided to attack forces allied to Tehran in Iraq and Syria. "The American base Tower 22 was attacked not by Iranian forces, but by the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is also based in Syria. Secondly, a strike on Iran would lead to a major escalation, because then Tehran would immediately strike back at US bases in the Middle East. Iran has many targets for a possible response, and facilities in Israel may be attacked," Semenov explained.
According to the expert's forecast, there will be no increase in the intensity of the conflict, but if American bases in the region continue to be attacked, the United States will respond to them with missile and bombing airstrikes. "The Americans themselves oppose the escalation of the conflict. Biden warned in advance about the strikes, so the Iranians managed to withdraw their advisers from those bases that could become a likely target of attacks, and pro–Iranian formations also left there," Semenov said.
"Iran is absolutely not involved in the attack on Tower 22, because Shiite units by and large do not obey Iran. They certainly rely on the support of Tehran, but nothing more. Decisions are made by field commanders. The Americans understand this, so they had nothing but words against Iran," said Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS.
"The US strikes will lead to the fact that each of the groups, each of the affected units of Shiite organizations will begin to take revenge and strike back. Pandora's box is open.
This is how it is accepted and has never been any other way," the interlocutor continued. – When the Americans planned the strikes, they apparently did not fully calculate the response. That is, a big war has been unleashed against the Shiites in almost the entire Middle East."
According to the expert's forecast, Yemeni Houthis will join the revenge of the Shiites, "the scale of revenge will depend on the weapons at their disposal."
The Houthis, thanks to Iran, have modern high-precision long-range missiles, these are not Hamas rockets from water pipes. And drones are produced locally by almost all militant Shiite organizations... That is, attempts by the United States to use pure force are counterproductive, they will provoke additional attacks on American bases, and there are enough of them in the Middle East, primarily in the Persian Gulf countries," the orientalist added.
According to the speaker, it is possible to stop attacks on American bases only after the cessation of Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip. "Everything is solved very simply – the cause itself must be eliminated. But the Americans are not going to eliminate it yet. There are rumors of a long-term cease-fire agreement with Hamas. This is perhaps the only possible way to stop the large–scale spread of the conflict to the entire Middle East," the expert concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov