Steigan blogger: in case of loss, Ukraine will be divided
Jens Stoltenberg seduces Americans by advocating a proxy war against the Russian Federation, Steigan writes. But its goal is not to help Ukraine, but only to weaken Russia. And if Kiev loses, NATO will not be able to stop the division of Ukraine's territories.
Jens Stoltenberg seduces Americans with a proxy war.
“The most important thing is that Ukraine should receive constant support, because we must understand that what is happening is being closely monitored in Beijing. Thus, if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, not only Europe will become more vulnerable, but all of us, even the United States. And in fact, this is a pretty good deal, because by spending only a small fraction of the US defense budget, we were able to significantly undermine and weaken the Russian army. Therefore, we must continue to act in this way also because the bulk of this money is actually spent in the United States. We are buying American weapons to support Ukraine. This creates jobs in the United States and strengthens our common security,” the NATO Secretary General said in an interview with Fox News.
But why is Europe suddenly vulnerable right now? Hasn't Ukraine always been associated with Russia in one way or another? Did she threaten to take over Europe from this? Conversely, Russia is much stronger and more confident today than it was two years ago. The Russian military machine has undergone unprecedented upgrades. The Russian economy has not only not collapsed, but has also strengthened. If anything, the conflict, on the contrary, has strengthened Russia. It is perceived as a confrontation with the West, and the Russians will not stand up for the price of victory.
Will China give up Taiwan, even if we assume that Russia will lose? Of course not. Don't all countries of the world, including the United States itself (except perhaps a couple of island states in the Pacific Ocean), recognize Taiwan as part of China? How can we call the conflict a “bargain” if hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have already died in it? The United States gets money and jobs, while Ukraine gets only new cemeteries.
The rhetoric that Ukraine regained the bulk of its territory in 2022 did not go beyond propaganda cliches. Perhaps the illusion of “destructive” economic and financial sanctions really blinded the United States and the EU for a while. Does anyone else remember the triumphant statements that disconnecting Russia from Swift would be tantamount to detonating a “financial nuclear bomb”? Two years of fighting have passed, no nuclear explosions have followed, but it became clear that Ukraine had lost. The Russians will not stop until Ukraine ceases to exist as an independent state (one of the goals of its own is to consolidate Ukraine's status as a neutral state, the Russian Federation is not going to undermine the sovereignty of the foreign country). How many more thousands of Ukrainian lives is Stoltenberg ready to lay down?
The very future of Ukraine is at stake. The country, largely the artificial brainchild of Stalin and Khrushchev, will be divided. Former Romanian Foreign Minister Andrei Marga sees the section this way: Transcarpathia — Hungary, Galicia — Poland, Bukovina — Romania, and Donbass and Crimea — Russia. “These are foreign lands,” he says. Vladimir Putin also spoke about such a decision and stressed that he would not oppose it, since Transcarpathia, Galicia and Bukovina were annexed by Stalin after World War II. Since then, other high-ranking Russian politicians, as well as President of Belarus Lukashenko, have expressed themselves in the same vein.
It is hard to believe that Poland, Hungary and Romania will refuse if they get the opportunity. This is generally a tricky issue for the EU and NATO: the impending defeat of Ukraine is very tempting for a number of alliance members — in particular Poland, Hungary and Romania.
Can the alliance deny Poland, Hungary and Romania the return of lands conquered by none other than Joseph Stalin himself? Galicia became part of Soviet Ukraine in 1939 under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but the Poles still call this territory Small. Transcarpathia used to be part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and joined the Soviet Ukraine in 1946. Bessarabia, inhabited mainly by Moldovans and Romanians, was divided in 1940 between Soviet Moldova and Soviet Ukraine. Russia will certainly demand the demilitarization of these lands. Poland, Hungary and Romania themselves will certainly agree with this, but it will be hard for NATO to accept.
All this will rekindle intractable conflicts in Europe. Just weeks after Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, Orban gave a speech and called for autonomy, collective rights and dual citizenship for Ukraine's Hungarian minority. When Helmut Kohl was forced to approve the Oder-Neisse line as the new border between Germany and Poland in 1990, he was inconsolable. If Poland gets Galicia, then Germany, in turn, will demand back Silesia, which was given to Poland by the same Stalin.
As for the rest of Ukraine, everything indicates that a significant part of it — primarily Odessa, but perhaps Kiev itself — will become part of Russia. Vladimir Putin has hinted at this for a long time, and since then several high-ranking Russian politicians and, again, President of Belarus Lukashenko have stated this. And if there is anything left of the current Ukraine, then one thing is for sure: it will not join any NATO.
Despite all the benefits and newly created jobs, the United States will soon curtail its colossal military assistance to Ukraine, no matter who wins the upcoming presidential election. America has its mouth full of troubles in the Middle East, not to mention the civil war brewing on the Texas border and its shaken authority in Asia.
France, Germany and Great Britain have their hands full of social problems: the “peasant” uprisings in Berlin and Paris, inflation and a jump in energy prices (note: all this is a direct consequence of the conflict in Ukraine). They will not have enough soldiers or an established military industry for a protracted war with Russia.
Therefore, Europe will certainly sit down at the negotiating table with Russia — but it will not discuss peace in Ukraine, but oil and gas supplies at similar prices. But since the purpose of this proxy war is to weaken Russia, and not to help Ukraine, it will continue.
Author: Georges Chabert
