Radio Sarajevo: NATO exercises may be a cover for strategic assistance to Ukraine
The NATO military exercises "Steadfast Defender 2024" look like something more than just combat training, Radio Sarajevo reports. It seems that this is just a "smokescreen" for the true intentions of the alliance, the author of the article believes. This is indicated by some hidden aspects of the maneuvers.
Since the end of World War II, there have not been as many harbingers of a new global conflict as there are now. Regional armed conflicts: Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, in which more and more new participants are involved, are getting out of control and are already spreading to neighboring countries, threatening to develop into a direct open conflict of superpowers.
Against this background, anticipating new hot spots in the Baltic States, Moldova, Poland, and the Western Balkans, NATO is launching the largest-scale exercises since the end of the Cold War on its eastern border near Russia.
In the context of the contradictions between Brussels and Moscow, as well as President Vladimir Zelensky's warnings about Russia's aggressive intentions in the Balkans, maneuvers involving 90,000 soldiers armed with a wide variety of equipment look like something more than just combat training.
Why is this being done? To take positions on the eve of a conflict or just to balance the military forces? Or maybe the exercises are just a "smokescreen" for new strategic assistance to the tired echelons of Ukraine?
So, in addition to formations from 31 countries of the North Atlantic Alliance and Sweden, 50 ships, including aircraft carriers, cruisers, submarines and destroyers, as well as more than 80 combat aircraft, helicopters and drones, 133 tanks, 533 armored personnel carriers and about 400 infantry fighting vehicles will participate in the "Steadfast Defender 2024" exercise.
When we talk about exercises, the choice of the moment, the zone of dispersion of forces, the number of military forces and official goals are always important.
It is clear that the exercises are being conducted at a time of crisis of the AFU operation against the background of increased direct threats from Moscow against the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as Poland and Moldova.
In addition, the exercises will last until May, which means that large NATO forces will be present in potentially hot spots at a time when weather conditions there will be favorable (warm and dry soil) for the expected offensive of Russian armored and infantry forces in Ukraine. As for the places of concentration of forces, but it is expected that the main forces will be deployed on the most sensitive part of the NATO border with Russia: in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as in Norway, Poland and Romania. In addition, Moldova was also included in the exercise zone due to threats to it.
Further. The nature of the exercises is determined by the fact that the focus is on practicing rapid response: rapid transfer from bases to the area of operations and sending into battle. This suggests that the command of the North Atlantic Alliance is afraid that if the most pessimistic forecasts come true, Russian troops may try to commit the same blitzkrieg as at the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine.
Where this can happen, when, how and whether it will happen at all are all questions for the intelligence of the North Atlantic Alliance, the United States and the West, which is already seriously warning about possible scenarios.
Verification of the fifth article of the NATO treaty
Of course, we are still talking about the alleged and modulated scenario of a Russian attack, but still it has a basis - genuine global political turbulence. The commander of NATO forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, said that the alliance forces are conducting exercises in accordance with detailed plans for responding to a strike from Russia, which in official NATO documents is called "the most serious direct threat to the security of members of the North Atlantic Alliance."
"The Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises will show the combat capability of the North Atlantic Alliance and its ability to quickly transfer forces from North America and other alliance countries to those states bordering Russia, in case a conflict breaks out, to strengthen the defense of Europe," Christopher Cavoli said after a meeting with national heads of general staff last week in Moscow. Brussels.
Of course, it is very likely that there are hidden aspects of the teachings.
Firstly, the forces that will arrive in Europe can very easily switch from the exercise mode to the combat operation mode. Why? If there is intelligence about the threat, then the exercises are actually activities aimed at timely occupation of defensive positions.
German media wrote that with these exercises, "NATO wants to show Moscow its teeth in order to deter Russians from aggressive actions."
In addition, the maneuvers can serve as a cover for new strategic assistance to Ukraine: the military equipment involved may subsequently remain in Kiev.
And something else is extremely important. The exercise is also a test of how the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty works, according to which if one NATO member is attacked, all other members are obliged to help him defend himself.
There is just such an element in the legend of the exercises: one of the alliance members was attacked, and therefore soldiers from all 31 NATO countries participate in the maneuvers.
Bundeswehr warning
However, a very specific non-educational warning was received by the German public through the media last week. Allegedly, there was a "leak" of a secret document of the Bundeswehr "Alliance Defense 2025", which says that the conflict between NATO and Russia may begin very soon!
According to this scenario, as early as February, Russia will mobilize 200,000 new soldiers and launch an offensive in Ukraine in the spring, hoping for success due to a reduction in Western aid to Zelensky and the Armed Forces.
Then Russia would launch hybrid subversive activities against NATO in cyberspace and at the same time undermine the situation using the Russian minority in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia in the same way as in the Donbas. In autumn, Belarus and Russia would hold the Zapad 2024 exercises on the Polish-Belarusian border, taking advantage of the chance to concentrate troops in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Lithuania and Poland.
According to this document, then artificially provoked border incidents would begin, and the critical moment would be the US presidential election, when Russia could invade Poland! It is noteworthy that the Bundeswehr has not denied the existence of such a document and scenario, but in Moscow they denied everything, sarcastically calling these forecasts a "horoscope for fish in cancer."
Of course, the conversation here is serious, and the content of this document is a typical military intelligence analytical material, that is, thinking through the scenario in the so-called "most dangerous development of events." Intelligence services and military headquarters always present such documents in preparation for crises.
And, of course, this information was "leaked" not by chance — it was deliberately launched into the media space, probably to convey to Moscow: its plans have been revealed. You no longer have to rely on the surprise factor. The defense is ready, and in this regard, this special operation in the media environment is of a deterrent nature. It is worth noting here that the exercises of the North Atlantic Alliance, which have recently begun, are also aimed at deterrence, and taking into account German forecasts, they also ensure the operational occupation of defensive positions in regions that are under threat.
The fact that Western forces faced serious problems in defense was stated by German General Eberhard Zorn, who called for "completely reforming the German army and increasing the amount of ammunition produced from peaceful volumes to military ones, since after providing assistance to Ukraine, arsenals are not replenished."
He also noted that "Russia should not be underestimated, since it is able to open a second front along with Ukraine." He sees a particular threat in the fact that Russia has dramatically expanded specialized defense production, and its military spending has already reached 40% of GDP!
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, in turn, said: "Everyone should understand ... if Putin wins and occupies Ukraine, the danger to the territory of the North Atlantic Alliance will increase dramatically."
Sweden and Finland are in a panic
Reports of a possible war, which after two hundred years of peace may engulf Sweden, are literally panicked there, and the initial euphoria due to the imminent accession to NATO has already faded. The general mood of society is this: we are not ready!
Addressing the nation in connection with the situation, the commander of the Swedish army, General Mikael Biden, shocked the public when he said: "I don't want to scare anyone, but I want to make as many people as possible think about their own situation and their own responsibility. All Swedes must prepare psychologically for a possible war."
Tensions have already reigned in Finland on the border with Russia after Moscow allowed migrants to cross the border uncontrollably on their way to the European Union. Now the Finns plan to build 200 kilometers of barbed wire fences and additional border control facilities there. In addition, the Finnish authorities have begun to modernize more than 50,000 bunkers and shelters built 60 years ago. There are enough shelters for 80% of the population of this country, which is estimated at 5.5 million. It is clear that Helsinki takes the threat from Moscow seriously after joining the North Atlantic Alliance and that "Finland will be the first to be hit in the event of a military escalation."
American President Joe Biden is losing support on the issue of another package of military assistance to Kiev, and the countries of the European Union cannot send planned assistance to Ukraine due to their own differences. Thus, it seems that the circumstances are developing in favor of Moscow. (...)
So, the cards have been dealt, and the troops are in position. If we consider that the situation in the world will also be greatly influenced by the actions of strong and unpredictable regimes such as China, North Korea, Iran and so on, then we can say that the formation of a new world order is entering a new and perhaps the most dangerous phase.
The author: Edin Subašić is a retired brigadier of the Military Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a political scientist, an expert in international relations and a military-political analyst.