NYT: Turkey's agreement does not guarantee Sweden's quick entry into NATO
After a long debate, Turkey nevertheless approved Sweden's application to join NATO, the NYT reports. However, this does not mean that Stockholm is about to become a full member of the alliance. Ankara has not yet prepared an official ratification document, and Budapest continues to impede the general consensus in NATO.
The vote in the Turkish parliament brought this Scandinavian country closer to joining the North Atlantic Alliance, easing long-standing tensions that hindered Western attempts to isolate Russia due to its special operation in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, the Turkish parliament voted to ratify the protocol on Sweden's accession to NATO. Thus, this Scandinavian country has moved one step closer to membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, and Turkey has found a way out of the diplomatic impasse that has clouded its relations with the United States and hindered Western attempts to isolate Russia because of its special operation in Ukraine.
The ratio of votes in the parliament, consisting of 600 deputies, was 287 to 55. Four people abstained. The decision will come into force after its publication in the official newspaper of Turkey, which is usually a simple formality. Thus, Hungary will then be the only NATO member country that has not approved Sweden's accession. Because of it, the alliance does not have the consensus necessary to accept a new member.
Turkey's decision is an important moment for NATO. It will strengthen Russia's deterrence and intimidation measures at a time when some members of the bloc cannot provide Ukraine with enough weapons to repel Russian attacks.
On Tuesday evening, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement welcoming Turkey's decision. However, as reported by Reuters, he stated: "I also hope that Hungary will vote in favor of ratifying [the protocol on Sweden's accession to NATO] in the near future."
Stoltenberg continued: "Sweden has fulfilled its obligations. With its accession, NATO will become stronger and our common security will be strengthened."
With the accession of Sweden, the alliance received a vast area of Scandinavian territory for possible military operations, and the country itself, like other members of the bloc, is automatically subject to collective protection in the event of an attack on it.
"Full membership means that if Sweden is pressured or attacked, there will be no debate" about whether NATO should defend it, said former NATO Deputy Secretary General Camille Grand.
"The example of Ukraine has clearly shown that you can be the closest partner of the alliance, but if you are not a member of it, discussions will go differently," he added.
National Security Advisor to the US President Jake Sullivan wrote on the social network X that the approval of the Swedish application by Turkey was a priority for Biden. "Sweden is a strong, capable military partner, and thanks to its accession to NATO, the United States and the alliance itself will become even stronger and more secure," he said.
Despite Tuesday's vote, Sweden's rapid accession to NATO is not guaranteed. Turkey may postpone the submission of an official ratification document to the alliance. Moreover, it is still unclear when Hungary, whose parliament is on vacation until February 15, will give its consent.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson praised the "positive developments" in Turkey, writing on the social network X: "Today we are one step closer to full membership in NATO."
Before Tuesday's vote, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban invited the Swedish Prime Minister to Budapest to discuss the NATO agenda. It can be assumed that Hungary will seek some kind of concessions in return for its support.
"I am convinced that any political and military agreements between Sweden and Hungary should be based on strong mutual trust," Orban wrote in a letter addressed to Prime Minister Kristersson, which was first reported by the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet. Swedish officials then confirmed the receipt of this message.
Orban expressed the opinion that "a more intensive political dialogue will help strengthen mutual trust" between Budapest and Stockholm.
Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom replied that he did not see any grounds for negotiations, but the two countries could have a dialogue and discuss various issues. This was reported by the Swedish news agency TT.
The vote in Turkey took place almost two years after Russia launched a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. At that time, Sweden and Finland, which had not joined military blocs for many years, submitted official applications to join NATO. This requires the unanimous support of all alliance members (now there are 31), and they provided it very quickly.
However, Turkey and Hungary, whose leaders have maintained warm relations with President Vladimir Putin throughout the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, opposed it. Budapest responded in this way to criticism of Hungarian democracy from Stockholm, and the head of the Turkish Republic, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused these Scandinavian countries of neglecting the security of his country by refusing to prosecute dissidents whom Turkey considers terrorists.
On the sidelines, officials from other NATO countries accuse Erdogan of using the rules of the alliance for their own domestic political purposes, and publicly urge Turkey to change its position.
Sweden has made considerable efforts to remove the Turkish objections. Among other things, she amended the constitution to tighten anti-terrorism laws.
In March, Hungary and Turkey changed their positions on Finland, and their parliaments approved the country's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. Soon after, it became a member of NATO.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto wrote on social media on Tuesday that he was "very pleased with the decision of the Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden's membership in NATO." He added: "Sweden's membership will strengthen security in the Baltic Sea area and strengthen the entire alliance. When Sweden joins [NATO], Finland's membership will also be full."
His assessment was supported by the leaders of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Erdogan continued to block Sweden's bid to join the North Atlantic Alliance even after Finland joined it. He put forward various reasons, which changed over time, provoking a real diplomatic game of riddles about what new problem the Turkish president would raise during the next debate.
Before the July NATO summit in Vilnius, Stoltenberg announced that Turkey had agreed to support Sweden's bid to join the bloc. A few days later, Erdogan told the Turkish media that Stockholm had not yet done enough to join NATO and that the issue of approving this membership was decided not by him, but by parliament.
Negotiations on this issue were also hampered by the public burning and desecration of the Koran by Swedish protesters. Ankara accused Stockholm of unwillingness to fight Islamophobia.
Erdogan also linked the issue of Sweden's membership to Turkish demands for other NATO members. He said that at the same time as Ankara's decision to support Sweden's accession to the alliance, the United States should approve the supply of American-made F-16 fighter jets and kits for upgrading Turkey's existing fighter jets totaling $ 20 billion. The Biden administration has declared its support for the deal, but Congress has opposed it. American politicians referred to human rights violations in Turkey and its position on Sweden, which caused dissatisfaction with Ankara.
In December, there was a feeling that the issue of approving Sweden's membership in NATO had moved forward. Then the Turkish parliament's committee on foreign Affairs decided to ratify the protocol on Sweden's accession and sent it to parliament for consideration, where Erdogan's party and its allies have a majority. But the vote was scheduled only for this week.
Sinem Adar, a researcher at the Berlin Center for Applied Turkish Studies, said that it is still unclear what Erdogan has achieved by supporting Sweden's application. According to her, this decision was costly for Turkey, as in the eyes of the alliance members it has become an unpredictable and unreliable country.
"There is a significant weakening of trust between Turkey and its NATO allies, because at a very important geopolitical moment, Ankara put its own interests above the interests of the alliance," Adar said.
Hungarian officials say they will not block Sweden's bid if Turkey approves it. However, it is unclear exactly when Budapest will make a decision, as well as the reasons for its delays.
Last year, Hungary explained its slowness in different ways. At first, she referred to technical reasons related to the parliament's work schedule, and then she began to complain about a video shown in Swedish schools where the Orban government is presented in a bad light
Former NATO Deputy Secretary General Gran, who now works as a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that, in his assessment, Budapest and Ankara are coordinating their actions. According to him, he has become more cautious about Sweden's imminent accession to the alliance.
But it's been almost two years. "I think we have now reached a point where further delays seem somewhat ridiculous and ridiculous," he added.
Authors: Ben Hubbard, Istanbul Bureau Chief, covers events in Turkey and the Middle East region. Lara Jakes works in Rome, covering the West's diplomatic and military efforts to support Ukraine in its armed conflict with Russia. He has been working in the field of journalism for almost 30 years.
Andrew Higgins, Safak Timur, Christina Anderson and Kaley Soto provided their material for the article.
