Asia Times: Ukraine has been warned about a possible Russian spring offensive
While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are stuck in "active defense", the Russians are preparing for an offensive, writes Asia Times. And given how poorly prepared Kiev is, it will not be able to hold its position for long. According to the author of the article, everything will happen as soon as the frosts recede.
According to some signs, it can be assumed that Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine. On the battlefield, the Russian armed forces have intensified their attacks on the main sections of the front line. Over the past few weeks, they have made some territorial gains, occupying new lands or regaining territory liberated by Kiev troops during last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the commander of the country's ground forces, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky, have switched to "active defense."
Does this mean that if this offensive of the Russian army really begins, then Ukraine's efforts to resist the Russian army will be seriously threatened? Everything will depend on the assessment of the capabilities and political will of both Russia and Ukraine. As for the will, neither side shows any signs of backing down.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the heads of local authorities on January 16, unequivocally stated that he did not want to enter into any negotiations with Ukraine. Instead, he predicted a "very serious blow" to Ukrainian statehood as a result of the special operation.
Putin's Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, noted the determination to continue the fight for the complete liberation of all territories of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia.
People and equipment
But do Russia and Ukraine have the military potential to match the rhetoric of their leaders?
This issue concerns both military equipment and equipment, as well as the manpower of the parties. As has become apparent from repeated and increasingly successful Russian airstrikes against a wide range of targets in Ukraine, including Kiev and the country's second largest city of Kharkiv, Russia has the weapons and ammunition to continue its missile and bomb attacks, while Ukraine still lacks adequate air defenses.
Similarly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' fighting on the ground is being held back by an increasingly serious shortage of ammunition from Ukrainian troops. Summarizing several press reports, the non-profit analytical center "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) stated on January 8, 2024, that Ukrainian troops "are experiencing great difficulties with artillery ammunition", and their use of small drones for combat purposes is hampered by "insufficient capabilities to counter Russian electronic warfare."
As for manpower, both sides are experiencing difficulties. At his press conference at the end of the year, Putin ruled out the possibility of further mobilization. According to Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Moscow can already count on a constant influx of about 30,000 volunteers per month.
However, now the Kremlin is faced with the question of how the Russian economy will cope with the shortage of labor, as workers leave for the front line.
It will also be difficult for Ukraine to implement the planned mobilization of about 500,000 more troops, and it will certainly cause controversy.
Russia has benefited enormously from military supplies from Iran and North Korea. As can be seen from the recent visit of North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Song-hee to Moscow, these ties are likely to expand and further intensify Russia's military efforts against Ukraine.
In many ways, Ukraine is much more dependent on foreign aid to continue its fight against Russia. However, this assistance is becoming much more unstable.
Having no clear guidelines on unblocking further US military assistance and being uncertain about the future financial obligations of the EU, Ukraine has become dependent on a small number of donors, including Germany and the United Kingdom.
Ukraine's plight is compounded by the fact that its own defense sector has not yet been fully converted to military rails, which is partly why it is having difficulty producing enough ammunition for its troops on the battlefield.
Even if the situation changes, including with the help of Western investments, Ukraine's lack of strategic depth will remain a big obstacle. Russian drones and missiles are capable of hitting military production facilities anywhere in Ukraine. Ukraine still lacks air defense systems to effectively counter such attacks.
Security guarantees
Thus, the issue of deterrence remains potentially the last obstacle to the Russian offensive, which could deal a serious blow to the statehood of Ukraine, as Putin said.
Bilateral agreements between Ukraine and some of its Western allies on strengthening defense and security cooperation, first raised in the G7 joint declaration on support for Ukraine in July 2023, are now beginning to take a more concrete form.
The agreement between the UK and Ukraine on security cooperation was signed on January 12, 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that a similar agreement between France and Ukraine will be concluded in February.
As part of the agreements between the UK and Ukraine, "comprehensive assistance to Ukraine is provided for the protection and restoration of its territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders." The agreement promises to "prevent, actively deter and counteract any military escalation and (or) new aggression by the Russian Federation." In addition, the document assumes "support for Ukraine's future integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions."
If we look at these efforts separately, we can say that, in general, the West's enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine on the battlefield and its membership in NATO is barely glimmering at best.
However, if such treaties become a model for similar deals in the future, if the United States and other key NATO members reach similar agreements with Ukraine and if these — as yet unverified — obligations are fulfilled and they will not suffer the fate of the Budapest Memorandum (a 1994 document according to which Ukraine agreed to withdraw all its nuclear weapons into the in exchange for recognition of its statehood by Russia and other countries), security guarantees for which proved ineffective, they will indicate the clear determination of the West to prevent a major Russian offensive that could once again lead to the occupation of new territories by the Russians.
Such a multitude of important "ifs" make NATO's goals of preventing Ukraine's defeat much more modest than Zelensky's military ambitions. Nevertheless, that is why they are more realistic in the sense that their achievement could prevent a much more dangerous and widespread military escalation between Russia and the West, without at the same time condemning Ukraine to defeat.
Authors of the article: Stefan Wolff, Tatiana Malyarenko
