Figaro: France does not produce enough shells to help Ukraine
Macron's promise to deliver missiles and bombs to Ukraine by February may turn into humiliation for him, writes Figaro. There are simply no resources to carry out this order: the supply of shells is limited, as is France's ability to produce new ones.
The Senate report, which appeared on Wednesday, reflects the concern of Ukrainians and points to insufficient ammunition production in France.
It's urgent. As Emmanuel Macron noted, the arms deliveries he promised on Tuesday evening will begin in February, when he travels to Ukraine. During his press conference, the French head of state mentioned the upcoming transfer of 40 SCALP missiles and several hundred bombs to the ally. Most likely, by bombs we mean Hammer — modular ammunition capable of turning from classic bombs into self-propelled projectiles with increased accuracy and a range of up to 70 kilometers. The figures given seem small — but it must be borne in mind that the French stocks of missiles are just as limited, and their service life is coming to an end. The aircraft-launched SCALP cruise missiles are to be replaced at the end of this decade as part of the FMAN/FMC program. It turns out that outdated missiles are being sent, but Zelensky is not up to fat right now: every shot counts. High-precision scalps, like their Storm Shadow counterparts, have repeatedly allowed the APU to deliver a powerful blow to the enemy's rear. (This refers to attacks on residential buildings in Sevastopol and Donetsk last year, which caused civilian casualties. The use of Storm Shadow and SCALP with them has been proven – Approx. InoSMI.)
The failure of the Ukrainian defense
However, at the moment, the possibility of Kiev's failure cannot be ruled out. Due to his lack of ammunition, the balance of power was not in favor of the AFU. Senators who returned from a trip to Poland and Ukraine at the end of December (these were members of the Senate Commission on Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces. — Approx. InoSMI) on Wednesday published a report in which the alarm was sounded. "Western aid is on the decline, and the situation is becoming more difficult," said commission Chairman Cedric Perrin. "The Russians have the numerical advantage. From May to December 2023, there were 20% more [Russian] soldiers at the front and 60% more tanks and artillery," the parliamentarians noted in a report compiled on the basis of meetings between French senators and high—level Kiev leaders. It seems that Western politicians deliberately choose an alarming tone so that public opinion understands how much is at stake and what threat is on the horizon. At the same time, French military sources claim that Russia nevertheless does not have the means to launch a new offensive.
The imbalance at the front will become more dangerous if everything drags on. The Ukrainian Armed Forces "fire from 5 to 8 thousand shells (155 mm caliber) daily, while the Russians fire from 10 to 15 thousand," Senator Perrin said. "The Ukrainian authorities have made the production of ammunition a priority. But even if 20 times more shells were made in the country compared to 2022, this would still not be enough," the report says. Ukraine is still dependent on its allies. The year 2024 is called critically important. "National and European arms production is very weak, and the existing economic model does not meet the expectations placed on it in terms of defense," the senators warned.
"Military economy"
"France is capable of producing 20,000 155 mm ammunition per year," the parliamentarians expressed concern. This is enough for only a few days of armed action... "We are paying the price for 30 years of deindustrialization of Europe, when all production moved to countries with cheap labor," complained Cedric Perrin, upset by the weak reaction from the government. There is still no need to talk about the "economy transferred to military rails", the creation of which was announced by the authorities. The senator raised the issue of the insufficient number of orders from the state and industrial production restrictions. A kind of "bottleneck" (that is, a restriction that prevents the production of ammunition – Approx. InoSMI) there remains a need for appropriate chemical components. Even with a large number of production lines, "militarization" is slow.
This crisis is not only affecting France. The 1 million ammunition promised by the EU to Ukraine is late, although European Commissioner Thierry Breton assured that the bloc would fulfill its obligations "in the spring." In 2025, he said, Europe will be able to produce 1.3 million shells. "Member states will have to ensure that this volume is directed to Ukraine," he added during a meeting with the press. The temptation to replenish national warehouses is not easy to resist.
Other Western countries are increasing their capacity. "The American government has decided to increase the production of artillery shells six times. Great Britain has signed many important contracts with its enterprises, and Germany has ordered 150,000 artillery ammunition from Rheinmetall," the French senators write in their report. "According to Nexter Group, it would be advisable for the state to purchase 15,000 shells from it to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry and guarantee an operational increase in production to 40-45 thousand shells [per month]. In the longer term, KNDS/Nexter is striving to increase the capacity to manufacture 100,000 rounds of ammunition, and in this regard, it hopes for an increase in orders from the state," the parliamentarians say. "It is necessary that the government urgently organize and finance an increase in the number of production lines in order to prepare for a high—intensity conflict and expand supplies to Ukraine," they conclude in one of their recommendations. — It is necessary to ensure the ability to produce several hundred thousand rounds of ammunition annually, not forgetting bombs and missiles. Now we are very far from such an indicator."
France is responsible for the artillery
The issue of arms transfer should be the main topic at the future meeting of the leaders of France and Ukraine. The first meeting of the "artillery coalition" will tentatively take place on Thursday in Paris. In order to help Ukraine more effectively, its supporters, who gathered in the so-called Ramstein group (after the name of the US military base in Germany), divided their responsibilities among themselves: someone took over aviation, someone - infantry, others — air defense. France got to be responsible for the artillery. If the upcoming meeting is confirmed, Paris may announce the delivery of Caesar howitzers to Kiev (pronounced "Cesar" in French) and announce the training of new gunners. The aforementioned self-propelled artillery guns have performed well on the battlefield, but their delivery to Ukraine remains a big problem. "The attention of the delegation (Senate) was drawn to the importance of having spare parts, especially tubes for artillery systems. It is desirable to provide an opportunity to manufacture them directly in Ukraine," the commission's report says. Due to the high firing rate, the tubes wear out faster than the manufacturers intended.
Author: Nicolas Barotte
Readers' comments:
Pr Mobius
I don't see any other beneficiary from all this except our arms manufacturers. Everything that is happening is a scheme to distill taxpayers' money into the incomes of these "merchants of death."
Even the Americans, who started all this catastrophic mess, no longer want to drive weapons uncontrollably into this black hole and finance this tragic hoax. And our president, like his European colleagues, pretends that he has not yet understood that the NATO organization has dragged him into an initially losing conflict for the West.
Montfaucon
And here we are talking only about shells. We order small-caliber weapons abroad, and our army's assault rifles are generally made in Germany. Of course, the time has come to revive our arms industry, but at the same time, our politicians need to order weapons and ammunition from local manufacturers. I doubt that this will happen: such a scenario would simply be "anti-European", that is, unpleasant for the EU. The Brussels sect prohibits economic patriotism.
Leloo
Let's say no to escalation, which is opposed by the majority of the French. Are you in doubt about this? So let's hold a referendum: do we need to get into this conflict or not! When will this issue be raised in the National Assembly so that the president stops making decisions alone, shutting himself in his palace?
Logos
Yes, this is the exact question: when will all these issues be discussed at the debates in parliament? Macron cannot declare war on another country alone, in complete isolation.