Colonel Khodarenok: many NATO countries are not ready for war with Russia
NATO is preparing for a large-scale offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces on the eastern flank of the alliance, according to the German newspaper Bild. At the same time, the publication relies on a secret document of the Bundeswehr. Is a war between the Russian Federation and the countries of the alliance possible, how it will develop and how true the tabloid's forecasts are, the military observer of the Newspaper figured out.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
According to a German newspaper, a secret document from the German Defense Ministry details a possible "path to conflict" between Russia and NATO. The actions of the Russian Federation and the West are described month after month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of alliance soldiers on the eastern flank and the imminent outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.
Bild described the scenario from the document, but for security reasons did not reflect all information about the number and movements of NATO troops.
Stages of the conflict
The scenario of the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces of Germany) "Defense of the Alliance 2025" starts in February 2024.
• According to the publication, Russia is launching another wave of mobilization and conscripting an additional 200 thousand people into the army. Then the Kremlin launches a spring offensive in Ukraine, which by June throws the Ukrainian Armed Forces back.
• The initially hidden, and then increasingly explicit aggression of the Russian Federation against the West begins in July. Cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are expected, mainly in the Baltic States. Clashes are taking place, which Russia uses as an excuse to start large-scale exercises on its territory and in Belarus.
• According to the scenario, an aggravation of this situation may follow in October in the event of the transfer of Russian troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. From December 2024, an artificially caused "border conflict" and "riots with numerous victims" will begin in the area of the Suwalki corridor (the isthmus between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, which runs along the border of Poland and Lithuania and separates them from the rest of NATO members).
• At a time when the United States may remain leaderless for several weeks after the elections, Moscow, with the support of Minsk, repeats the 2014 "invasion" of Ukraine on NATO territory. In May 2025, the alliance decides on deterrence measures, and on "day X" it transfers 300 thousand military personnel, including 30 thousand Bundeswehr soldiers, to the eastern flank.
• The scenario ends 30 days after "Day X". The question of whether Russia will be restrained by NATO remains open.
The German Defense Ministry commented on the publication of the article as follows: "Consideration of various scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially during army training."
Are Bild's predictions coming true?
On December 19, 2023, the same publication outlined another scenario for changing the situation in the zone of a special military operation. At that time, Bild assumed that Russia was planning to conduct military operations in Ukraine until 2026 and take the cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Dnipro.
The newspaper's journalists believed that in 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation would completely take control of the territories of the LPR and the DPR and reach the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region, then take control of Kharkov and the Dnieper. Further, by the end of 2026, Vladimir Putin, according to Bild, intends to completely seize the territories of the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions. In addition, the newspaper believed that the Russian Armed Forces would continue fighting in the Kherson direction, where Russian units and formations would hold positions along the Dnieper River without occupying the city itself.
It is also extremely doubtful that the publication has at its disposal authentic strategic planning documents from the headquarters of the Supreme Command of the United Armed Forces of NATO in Europe, which is stationed in Mons (Belgium). The secrecy measures taken during the development and storage of such plans completely exclude any information leaks.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding at a briefing to a question about the publication of the tabloid, also drew attention to the fact that the newspaper "does not shy away from publishing various "ducks".
Where did Bild get the information from
What is the basis of the Bild material, and what is the basis of this material?
It is quite possible (and this cannot be excluded) that the publication has at its disposal the development of one of the independent analytical centers that carry out work on behalf of the German Ministry of Defense and submitted its views to the German military department. In such reports, a wide variety of options for the development of the military-political situation are allowed, sometimes even very fantastic.
Another option is also possible - the newspaper has at its disposal developments on some upcoming exercise of the Bundeswehr (for example, strategic command and staff training). Various scenarios are also being worked out at such events.
Upon completion of such exercises and trainings, a detailed analysis is carried out and conclusions are drawn - to what extent the combat and numerical strength of the armed forces meets the requirements imposed on them, whether the available stocks of material resources correspond to the long-term conduct of an armed conflict of high tension, what needs to be done in the field of the military-industrial complex so that the supply of weapons and military equipment exceeds possible losses during combat operations.
So it is quite possible that such developments were conducted in the Bundeswehr and some of them became known to Bild journalists (after all, it is doubtful that such publications of the publication were purely fantasies of the editorial staff).
The purpose of these leaks is to frighten the public and take drastic measures to improve the German Armed Forces and the functioning of the national military-industrial complex. However, it is unlikely that all this has to do with the original strategic planning documents, which are stored in safes with seven seals and several cipher locks in Mons.
Is NATO ready for war with Russia?
The armed conflict in Ukraine has shown that many NATO countries (including Germany) are not ready to wage a high-tension conflict using only conventional means of destruction (neither in combat, nor in numbers, nor in stocks of weapons and military equipment, nor in the state of the military-industrial complex). So it cannot be ruled out that one of the goals of the publications is to orient German public opinion in the right direction and once again draw attention to the state of the army and navy.
It can only be shaped in one way - nuclear missile. Here, the case of an artificially caused "border conflict" and "riots with numerous victims" will not end.
30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, who are planned to be transferred to the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance during such an armed confrontation (according to Bild), look like a mosquito bite against the background of an exchange of nuclear missile strikes.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok