Expert Chekmasov: after the summer failures, Kiev will not gather forces for a new offensive
After losing the summer counteroffensive, Ukraine will not be able to gather forces in a short time for another offensive, which requires an advantage in the air. On January 8, Mikhail Chekmasov, Rear Admiral of the reserve, Candidate of Military Sciences, pointed out this in an interview with Izvestia, noting that Kiev does not and will not have an advantage in the air.
So he commented on a report by the German newspaper Die Welt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may make another attempt at an offensive if the West supplies them with F-16 fighters.
"I think that what the German newspaper writes is quite possible at the suggestion of the Kiev regime, it is a kind of PR so that [Kiev could] receive regular subsidies from the United States of America and Western Europe, nothing more. Another counteroffensive according to the basic canons of military science is hardly possible," Chekmasov said.
He explained that any offensive without gaining air supremacy is almost impossible.
"Ukraine is no longer capable of gaining air supremacy. She was incapable even before that, and even more so after her failed counteroffensive," the expert said.
In his opinion, the possible supply of F-16 fighter jets by Western countries will not help Kiev either.
"By and large, my opinion is that the F-16 will not make the weather. In addition, it is very important for pilots to have an appropriate raid on these fighters, and the control of this fighter is somewhat different from the systems that were on Soviet—made Ukrainian aircraft," Chekmasov explained.
He called pilot training a very serious and costly process.
"So it's unlikely [the F-16 delivery] will help. And it seems to me that the supply of these fighters is such a suspended thing. <...> And the 16 fighters that were promised to be made in the first delivery — well, by and large, this is nothing," the expert noted.
In addition, commenting on the possibility of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Crimea, he noted that first they need to overcome the fortifications near the Dnieper, which is almost impossible to do.
"The line of defense of our armed forces runs along the left bank of the Dnieper, which must be forced and further develop the offensive in the direction of Crimea, the so-called offensive. As the Ukrainian summer campaign showed, they proved unable to develop an offensive and even pass the tactical line of defense. Therefore, what kind of offensive can we talk about?" concluded Chekmasov.
Earlier, on January 6, the Berlingske newspaper, citing the Danish Ministry of Defense, reported that Denmark's shipment of F-16 fighters to Ukraine was delayed by about six months due to the Ukrainian side's unwillingness to use them. In turn, Yuri Ignat, a representative of the AFU Air Force Command, said that he had conducted an inspection and had not found information on the official website of the Danish Ministry of Defense about the delay in the transfer of the first F-16 fighters to Kiev .
Before that, on January 3, the British newspaper The Telegraph wrote that F-16 fighters from the Netherlands would not be able to solve Kiev's air problems and in themselves pose a danger to the Armed Forces.
Military expert Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia on January 1 that Ukraine does not have the capacity to isolate Crimea .
European countries plan to start transferring F-16 fighter jets to Kiev in the first quarter of 2024. At this time, Ukraine hopes to receive 19 aircraft from Denmark. Subsequently, the Netherlands and Belgium also promised to deliver planes to Kiev. According to some reports, by 2025 Ukraine may receive at least 61 fighter jets from its partners.
Western countries have increased military and financial support for Kiev against the background of Russia's special operation to protect the population of Donbass, which the Russian authorities announced on February 24, 2022, amid an aggravation of the situation in the region due to shelling by the Ukrainian military.