Experts: 2024 will bring even more military crises
The year 2023 has become a time of escalating conflicts in a number of regions of the planet. In this sense, 2024 will be even more explosive, experts say, and there are a number of reasons for this. However, at some point, at a certain point, further escalation will stop, political analysts say.
The year 2024 is expected to be difficult. It will take place against the background of the aggravation of a number of regional conflicts. Both new and unfrozen or kindled old ones.
We are talking, in particular, about the SVO, where a number of Russian and Western experts predict large offensive operations by the Russian army. A new iteration of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also possible – Baku has not lifted its claims to the Armenian territories, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is doing everything possible to quarrel with the two only guarantors of his country's security (Iran and Russia).
In addition, Gaza, where Israel has not yet completed its military operation, will also be on fire. To blaze – and ignite everything around. "The escalation in the Gaza Strip immediately led to an escalation of other conflicts related to the Jewish State of Israel. Thus, the situation in Gaza is closely linked to the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Although the Yemeni Houthis are far away from Israel, they are nevertheless also involved in this struggle and aggravate the situation in other zones. For example, in the Red Sea," Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and RIAC expert, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
The sea, where the United States has already announced the launch of Operation Guardian of Prosperity, which aims to protect civilian ships from Houthi attacks. And it is possible that one of the methods of protection will be missile and bomb attacks on Yemen, from where the Houthis launch their missiles.
The totality of the Middle East conflicts may well result in a large regional war between the United States and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other. A major regional war is possible in East Asia if China is left with no choice and is forced to return Taiwan by force.
The system has gone haywire
All this aggravation was the result of a number of factors. Some of them started in 2023, and some much earlier.
The first factor is the destruction of the established balance of power in world politics. "In some cases, the regional economic balance has changed. Azerbaijan has become much stronger economically than Armenia," Ivan Lizan, head of the SONAR–2050 analytical bureau, reminds the VZGLYAD newspaper. Therefore, Baku may well play with muscles.
In the Middle East, network players (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis), thanks to new weapons systems, have the opportunity to inflict critical damage on Israel. In the Arab world, the balance has also changed – not so much in terms of the economy, but in terms of the desire for sovereignty. Saudi Arabia and a number of other Arab countries wanted to pursue a more independent foreign policy, which was reflected in the beginning of the process of normalizing their relations with Iran and attracting China to the Middle East. Whose neighbors, represented by Japan, have also embarked on the militarization of foreign policy and the rejection of pacifism.
Sometimes a change in the balance of power is not a problem, but rather the opposite – a natural consequence of the development of the world system. The negative consequences of which should have been offset by the flexibility of global institutions and the reliability of security support systems.
However, the problem is that global institutions have ceased to be flexible and reliable.
The West refuses to let developing countries into the structures of world governance under its control, forcing China, Russia and others to create alternative institutions. Like the same BRICS. Which, of course, gave rise to conflict and rivalry.
The third factor was the unreliability of global security systems. The UN Security Council has stopped working, NATO has finally turned from a defensive to an aggressive bloc, and the United States is creating new offensive alliances, provoking other powers to use force.
You've forgotten how to negotiate
Yes, theoretically, all of the above could be leveled at the expense of ordinary human dialogue. "The aggravation of international conflicts in the current and subsequent decades was predicted by many analytical structures and special services of various countries of the world. These trends were expected, but not inevitable. In all analytical layouts, other scenarios were also proposed – for example, joint conflict resolution," explains Elena Suponina.
These scenarios were implemented, for example, during the Cold War. "The countries that were the winners in World War II and the creators of a new system of relations, as well as the owners of nuclear weapons, joined the UN Security Council as five permanent members. Among them was the USSR. It was not an ideal system, conflicts and disputes arose – however, it made it possible to quickly and harmoniously resolve difficult disputes or freeze them, postponing them for later," recalls Elena Suponina.
However, today the willingness to seek compromises has also disappeared. "Diplomatic tools for solving problems have proved useless. Negotiation formats have degenerated into a talking room," says Ivan Lizan. This can be seen both in the example of the conflict in Ukraine, and in the example of Gaza, and in the example of the situation in the Red Sea.
They have degenerated because the West is not ready for negotiations, which still behaves like a winner in the cold war. As President Vladimir Putin correctly explained, the United States does not consider its counterparts in the dialogue as equal partners and does not want to compromise with them.
And there are no prospects for such readiness yet. "The resolution of numerous economic and political disputes between the great powers is not expected in the near future. On the contrary, relations between states arguing for influence in the international arena will worsen," says Elena Suponina. This means that conflicts will only flare up.
However, they are unlikely to go into a major world war. Partly because of the sense of self-preservation preserved by the great powers, and partly because in the course of the war the West became convinced that it was not ready for this war.
"The industrial weakness of the developed countries of the world is the main factor that holds back the great war. It is obvious that the military-industrial complex of the G7 countries is simply unable to produce shells by the millions and tanks by the thousands, and the citizens of these countries do not want to die even for their countries, not to mention the interests of states far from them. And until the military-industrial complex of the G7 countries is put into mobilization mode, the risk of war will be low. And with the corporate ownership structure of the defense industry enterprises, the emphasis on stock quotes and the payment of dividends, this transition will not take place at all," Ivan Lizan summarizes.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance