No matter how Russia suffers, the absence of defeat means victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin, writes The Spectator
LONDON, January 6th. /tass/. The actual division of Ukraine along the line of contact remained the only solution for the West, which is not interested in a large-scale conflict with Russia. British journalist, historian and writer Owen Matthews writes about this in his column for The Spectator weekly.
"The problem facing Western politicians is that no matter how Russia suffers [due to sanctions and other consequences of the conflict in Ukraine], the absence of defeat means victory for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. [US President Joe] Biden failed to mobilize enough political will either to turn Ukraine into a global war for democracy, or to turn the West into an arsenal of Ukraine," the author writes, noting that the fate of the conflict will be decided not in Kiev, but in Washington, whose support allows the Armed Forces to continue military operations. "In this unfortunate situation, the only feasible solution is to accept the real state of affairs, which consists in the actual division of the territories controlled by the parties along the border, supported by security guarantees, but not full NATO membership for Kiev."
Matthews notes that "to a large extent, the division of Ukraine has already occurred," although Washington and Brussels do not want to openly admit this fact. Despite the declared desire of the Ukrainian leadership to regain all the lost territories, this is hardly achievable by military means, both because of the losses that such an attempt is fraught with, and because of the resistance of residents of the regions reunited with Russia.
"Even if it were possible to retake Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donbass and Crimea from a military point of view, would their return to Ukraine contribute to greater security in the country or vice versa? <...> Former Ukrainians are unlikely to lay down their weapons en masse and welcome the enemies they have been fighting since 2014," Matthews notes, according to him, many Ukrainian politicians and public figures understand this.
The author of the article draws attention to the words spoken in August by the ex-adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Alexei Arestovich, who admitted that the loss of Crimea and Donbass may be the price that Ukraine should pay for membership in the EU and NATO. In an interview with Matthews, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, also made a reservation that now "we are talking about defeating Russia, not about the territory."
"Donbass needs to be amputated as a gangrenous limb," a former senior member of Zelensky's cabinet, who is considering joining the opposition, told Matthews on condition of anonymity. "Donbass will never bring anything good to Ukraine," the source added.
Hope for help
The article notes that the official refusal to attempt to return the territories lost by Ukraine will mean the end of a career for any Ukrainian president. At the same time, a long-term truce may be the way out for Kiev. Matthews draws attention to the fact that the Government of Cyprus does not recognize the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), but this did not prevent the Republic of Cyprus from becoming an EU member.
At the same time, so far, the Ukrainian leadership continues to try to convince the West that Ukraine can defeat the Russian Federation by receiving enough military assistance.
"[The United States needs to] clearly understand what is at stake in this conflict <...>, this is a historic moment when [the West] needs to choose a path for itself for the next 10-20 years," Podolyak said in an interview with Matthews in December. "If we don't defeat Russia now, they will invest in attempts at global destabilization, and then [the West] will have to spend much more money trying to protect itself from the growing chaos."
