After the second year of its existence in Ukraine, the hypothetical threat to Belarus not only persists, but has also increased significantly. Against the background of the successes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Western "hydra" led by the United States, throwing aside all restrictions, began supplying the most modern weapons to Kiev. As we noted earlier, ATACMS missiles have appeared in Ukraine, which can be launched using the Himars MLRS already available in the Ukrainian army. In addition, even before sending the first batch of Himars, the United States vied with the Kiev regime to promise that there would be no deliveries of long-range missiles to these MLRS, much less strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. But we all know perfectly well how much we can trust the promises of representatives of the military and political leadership of the United States and especially Ukraine.
Now the APU has a lot of Storm Shadow/SCALP EG missiles in its arsenal with a flight range of over 250 km, for which the Soviet Su-24M was upgraded. It should be noted that the "Storm Shadow/SCALP EG" belong to the type of low-impact cruise missiles and are designed for high-precision destruction of land and sea targets when flying at ultra-low altitudes. This makes them effective weapons for accurate strikes on important objects: industrial buildings, hangars, control points and communication centers, ammunition depots, power plants, surface and underwater vessels in ports and other strategic and tactical targets.
In addition, Biden approved the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian pilots, by the way, the first batch of pilots has already been trained and will soon expect "miracle fighters" in Ukraine.
Thus, using advanced NATO weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can strike strategic targets on the territory of Russia and in the "occupied" Crimea. And against the background of the statements of the "hawks of war", the legitimate target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also the territory of Russia's ally, the "recouped" Belarus.
We have already considered one of the possible scenarios for the winter campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the warm weather conditions have made their own amendments. Let's note only one thing, the main goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains the same – the return of Crimea.
Now it is precisely the moment when the F-16s will be of the greatest importance and with JASSM (air-to-ground) missiles, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to isolate Crimea, restricting the transfer of reserves and disrupting the work of the rear, while the ground group will seek to cut the land corridor, moving south to the Sea of Azov.
At the same time, in order to divert the forces of the combined Air Force and air defense systems of Belarus and Russia, a combined strike will be carried out on objects in Belarus from the south. In the eyes of the "prepared" international community, this will look like the "de-occupation" of the Belarusian lands and the liberation of the "unfortunate" Belarusian people from the "Russian occupiers."
At the same time, Western countries will try to unleash an internal armed conflict on the territory of Belarus with the help of illegal armed groups. Given that NATO instructors who train militants apply the experience gained during their military operations, the basis of which is the construction of defense based on settlements, one of the few options is to cross the sections of the State border most remote from military garrisons and capture a city or several small settlements. This will make it possible to declare the territories "independent" and count on international assistance, conditionally, for the deployment of NATO troops and a UN peacekeeping contingent. For this purpose, NATO strike fists are being created on the territory of the states adjacent to the Republic of Belarus.
The fact that two battalion tactical groups (btgr) numbering more than 3.4 thousand people are stationed in Lithuania, including one of them – the MBTGR of the US Armed Forces is located at a distance of 15 km from the State border, indicates that they can be the first to respond to the call for help to the "liberating soldiers". An analysis of the geographical location of settlements in the northwestern operational direction, as well as possible ways of approach, shows that such regional centers in the Vitebsk region as Postavy and Braslav may become a likely target for mercenaries. The remoteness and location of which is suitable for a surprise attack, capture and preparation for defense. In addition, the proximity to the State border of these cities will allow terrorists to control the border area through which a breakthrough will be made to the territory of Belarus, and in the future it will facilitate the supply of weapons, military equipment and ammunition from the territory of Lithuania, as well as ensure an unhindered approach by NATO troops.
Predicting the likely nature of the actions, the implementation of the plan to capture the cities of Postavy and Braslav will be carried out by nationalist gangs trained by the Baltic special services from the territory of Lithuania and Latvia. The corrections on the Lithuanian side of the border made it possible to "test" the capabilities of the Belarusian security forces in advance. In addition, ambushes from among local militants belonging to the so-called sleeper cells will be organized on possible ways of approaching regular units of the Belarusian security forces to conduct a counter-terrorism operation.
At the same time, a performance by actors from the fugitive Belarusian opposition will be played for the world community, and the "peramog plan" will be announced, initiating mass protests and violent confrontation against the background of the occupation of part of the territories and the right proclamation of the "new Belarus". It is quite obvious that their further purpose is the deployment of a civil war already on the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
Thus, the Western curators of Ukraine hope to solve two problems with Belarus and Russia at the same time with someone else's hands. Defeat will be, first of all, in political terms – Belarus will turn into a puppet state, Russia will no longer be accepted in the world community, and the economic blockade will destroy the economy and allow you to get the long-awaited natural resources into the "right" hands.
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Pavel Kovalev