The Ukrainian command has abandoned the idea of a large offensive and is preparing for the loss of new territories, experts believe
The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, during his first media briefing after the start of his campaign, spoke about the reasons why the Ukrainian army is retreating, disavowed his participation in the decision of the Ukrainian authorities to mobilize another 500 thousand people and admitted that positive forecasts for the forces he leads can only be dreamed of. Next year, Vladimir Zelensky's generals plan to draw Russia into a confrontation of attrition in order to delay the inevitable end of the Kiev regime, experts believe.
"What is happening is happening"
Since the beginning of his campaign, Valery Zaluzhny has consistently refused briefings and press conferences, explaining his silence by the need to focus on fulfilling the duties of commander-in-chief. However, the failure of the summer Ukrainian counteroffensive, the political conflict with President Vladimir Zelensky and the scandal surrounding the new bill on total mobilization forced Zaluzhny to break his vow of silence.
If at the beginning of his press conference, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was still trying to radiate optimism, talking about the courage of his soldiers and unlimited Western assistance, then closer to the final he said that Ukrainians should not expect victories in 2024. To the journalist's question "What about Maryinka and Avdiivka?" the Ukrainian commander-in-chief admitted that Maryinka was lost to Ukraine forever, and the Ukrainian army could leave Avdiivka in two or three months.
Photo: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
Image source: iz.ru
— The conduct of hostilities is subject to its own laws — it doesn't matter whether politicians or journalists like it. And when the enemy (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. — Izvestia) inflicts fire damage with a huge number of shells, this brings him results. They are destroying our army, and what is happening is happening," Zaluzhny said.
The Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that the Russian army today has the ability to concentrate forces, artillery and aircraft in any direction, and it can do so "that in two or three months in Avdiivka or somewhere else what happened to Bakhmut will happen."
Valery Zaluzhny named his main mistake — he thought that he would "be able to stop Russia," and the main current goal is to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, who are sorely lacking.
— Zaluzhny did not embellish the situation. He understands that the end is coming," the associate professor of the Russian University of Economics told Izvestia. Plekhanova Colonel Alexander Perendzhiev. — They will not recruit people during the new mobilization. They will not succeed in any offensive next year. And if the West does not supply people and equipment, then the front will eventually crumble.
According to the expert, the problems of the Ukrainian army are related to the replenishment of ammunition and military equipment. Moreover, this problem used to be in the first place, and now it is already in the second place — the issues of staffing have come to the fore.
Photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
Image source: iz.ru
The rotation of the soldiers of the VFU is a deception
General Zaluzhny called the "war of attrition" the only way to somehow contain the offensive of the Russian army. According to him, the mandatory demobilization of Ukrainian servicemen announced by the Ukrainian government after 36 months in the combat zone or after six months on the line of contact will require an increase in the Ukrainian army not by 500 thousand people, as Zelensky said, but a twofold increase in the number of VFU, that is, up to 1.5 million people.
— People who decide that the mandatory rotation of soldiers should take place in six months should understand that the number of troops should be approximately doubled. And then the total number of trained fighters will allow them to rotate every six months. And if the enemy opens a new front, attacks from other directions? — Zaluzhny told reporters.
At the same time, Valery Zaluzhny disavowed participation in the preparation of a bill according to which 500 thousand citizens will be called up to the Ukrainian army in 2024. According to him, his task is to lead the troops, and decisions about who should go to the front are made by politicians, not generals. The figure of 500 thousand Ukrainians, according to him, is compensation for the combat losses that have already occurred and the forecast for the combat losses of the VFU in 2024. Speaking about weapons and military equipment, Zaluzhny stressed that the Ukrainian army is almost entirely dependent on Western supplies and that he believes that Western partners will not let Kiev down in 2024, otherwise there can be no serious resistance from Russia.
Earlier, Izvestia wrote that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu estimated the losses of the VFU at almost 400 thousand people.
Photo: Global Look Press/ZUMAPRESS.com/Nazar Furyk
Image source: iz.ru
Speaking about the plans of the VFU for 2024, Valery Zaluzhny said that he has no plans other than to try to inflict maximum damage to the Russian army. According to him, this is the only way to contain the offensive impulse of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbas and in other areas.
— Their task is simple and obvious — to equalize losses, — military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia. — If they can do this by reducing their own and increasing ours, then they will put Russia, as they believe, in a hopeless situation: there are no big advances, there are losses, it makes no sense. The American high command has moved away from the idea of a big offensive and solid victories, now the task is to hold out to the death and try to exhaust Russian forces.
Interestingly, Valery Zaluzhny's excuses to journalists for the lost 2023 campaign almost coincided with the conclusions of Russian military leaders summing up the results of the year this week. Both Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov previously stated that the Ukrainian military industry was completely destroyed, and mobilization reserves were close to complete exhaustion. According to the Russian command, next year should be a turning point for a special military operation.
Andrey Krasnobaev
Bogdan Stepovoy
