Colonel Khodarenok: after Marinka, the task of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be the capture of Avdiivka
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian troops had stormed Maryinka, one of the settlements closest to Avdiivka. What weapons helped the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to take a fortified city, how the military will build on the success achieved and why you should not relax ahead of time - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"Today, the settlement of Marinka has been completely liberated, it is five kilometers south-west of Donetsk. For nine years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have built a powerful fortified area there," Shoigu reported.
According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have laid a complex system of underground communications in the city, and "in fact, on every street" they have equipped long-term firing points, well protected from all air strikes and field artillery.
In the battles for Marinka, according to reports from the combat zone, 240-mm self-propelled mortars of special power 2C4 "Tulip" and correctable mines "Daredevil-M" proved themselves well. Such means are intended for the fire destruction of long-term enemy fire and fortifications. And Marinka, as you know, the APU has been strengthened for many years.
Recall that the Daredevil complex includes a 3VF4 shot with a 240 mm 3F5 adjustable high-explosive mine, a 1D15 or 1D20 laser target designator and a 1A35 shot synchronization system. The mass of the mine is 134 kg (for comparison, the weight of a 152-mm projectile is about 40 kg), and the firing range reaches 9.5 km.
The circular probable deviation of the Daredevil mine is 1.8 m over the entire range of firing ranges (from 1.5 to 9.5 km). That is, regardless of the firing range, half of the mines fired will fall into a circle with a radius of 1.8 m, which is considered a very high accuracy indicator for artillery ammunition.
According to eyewitnesses, in the battles for Maryinka, assault groups of motorized rifle units pressed against the gaps of 240 mm mines at a distance of up to 80 m, which made it possible to minimize the distance of the last throw to a trench or a long-term firing structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There is no doubt that the further task of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be the capture of Avdiivka. The pressure on this locality has increased significantly recently.
Perhaps in the near future, the Ukrainian army will begin withdrawing its units from Avdiivka, since the choice for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is small: withdraw, retaining relatively combat-ready battalions and brigades, or suffer heavy losses. And such a choice for the Ukrainian command in this area will become more and more prominent every day.
Further plans of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
The further task for the Russian Armed Forces after the capture of Avdiivka is to reach the administrative borders of the LPR and the DPR. After that, there is reason to believe that the Russian command will consider the issue of the final capture of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
In the future, the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is preparing calculations for an operation of an operational and strategic scale to capture the city and port of Nikolaev, as well as access to the approaches to Odessa (and the subsequent storming of the city).
However, for this purpose, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation must create qualitatively different groups of troops, the combat and numerical strength of which would allow them to perform similar tasks. In addition, it is necessary to gain dominance in the air and on the air, as well as radically solve the problem of combating Ukrainian drones. Only this will allow Russian troops to advance at a pace of 20-25 km per day, and only in this case can we talk about the reality of completing a task of this magnitude. Under any other circumstances, Odessa may not be reached in five years.
You should not relax
Along with optimistic calculations, one should not forget that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are cunning, insidious, proactive (and Feodosia is another example of this) and capitulatory sentiments do not prevail in Kiev. So it's not worth relaxing ahead of time, and the euphoria that has begun to take hold of some representatives of the Russian expert community is somewhat premature.
Financing of Ukraine and supplies of weapons and military equipment from the collective West are likely to resume in the near future (yes, by and large, they did not stop).
It is not worth overestimating the positions of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and, on some other issues, Turkey. Most likely, disagreements in the West in the very near future will lead to a reform of the governance scheme in both NATO and the European Union: either fateful decisions will begin to be made by a qualified majority, or individual countries will have the right to a decisive vote, while others will only have an advisory one. However, other options are possible.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok