In December, the United States increased its military and diplomatic activity in Northern Europe, alternately concluding defense agreements with Denmark, Finland and Sweden. This will allow Washington to gain access to about 35 military installations, air bases and seaports on the territory of the three countries. What are the features of these agreements, why did the United States decide to sign them bypassing NATO and what risks do these agreements pose for Russia?
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen signed a defense agreement on bilateral military cooperation. According to Blinken, the document "will strengthen European and transatlantic security at a crucial moment in history, when we need it most."
It follows from the agreement that Washington will have access to three facilities on the territory of the kingdom – the Aalborg, Skudstrup and Karup air bases, and for the delivery of personnel, vehicles and weapons for its troops, the Americans are allowed to use the port of Esbjerg. At the same time, the Faroe Islands and Greenland are not mentioned in the document.
It is also interesting that Danish opposition politicians and journalists are concerned about two things in the context of this agreement. First, the issue of the deployment of American nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. Secondly, the issue of bringing the US military to justice in case they commit a crime on the territory of Denmark.
"Yes, it is the Americans who will have to bring them to justice if, contrary to expectations, any criminal act occurs," Prime Minister of the Kingdom Mette Frederiksen said in response, and Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen repeatedly repeated that the agreement "respects the sovereignty of Denmark."
However, as Kommersant writes, the agreement "was met with hostility by the Red-Green Coalition entering parliament and some other political forces, who stated that the deal with the United States threatens Denmark's sovereignty and its national security." However, the Danish authorities promised that there would be no US nuclear weapons on the territory of the country.
Recall that in December, the United States signed similar bilateral agreements with Finland and Sweden. In the case of the Finns, the United States gets access to 15 military facilities, air bases and ports, and in the case of the Swedes, as stated by Defense Minister Paul Johnson, the Americans can use 17 facilities.
Given the fact that the United States signed similar agreements with other countries in the region (including Norway in 2021), the current military and political situation in the Baltic region is becoming an increasing problem for Russia, as has been repeatedly discussed both in the Kremlin and in the Russian Foreign Ministry.
As the representative of the department, Maria Zakharova, noted, the defense agreements will give Washington control over Northern Europe. "It is obvious that military capabilities are being built up in a previously peaceful region. Who needs it? The Finns? The Swedes? The people living there? Of course not. They don't need it. They are forced to do this. We warn you that we will take all necessary measures to protect the interests of national security," she added.
Against this background, Russia continues to work on the creation of the Leningrad Military District "and concentrate certain military units there," Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin. According to some reports, this process may be completed in March 2024.
At the same time, the question arises: if almost all the countries of the region, and in the future Sweden, are already included in NATO, why does Washington sign agreements on a bilateral basis? According to experts, Washington has several reasons for this, both purely military and political.
"Firstly, NATO is trying to increase the number of equipment in the armies of the alliance countries and upgrade existing weapons. Washington wants modernization to be under its control, expanding the workload of the American military–industrial complex," said Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"Another important point is that the Americans have been pursuing a very cunning economic policy in recent years. During negotiations, financial components are usually discussed, for example, the price of arms purchases. Such expenses can be covered by the purchase of U.S. securities by the countries that have concluded agreements," the source emphasizes.
"In addition, Washington wants to tie NATO countries even more to American influence. With the help of such treaties, the United States guarantees that the Europeans will not be able to organize and act independently in the military sphere, for example, by creating their own defense bloc or united armed forces," he notes.
"In other words, bilateral treaties allow the United States to act more flexibly, bypassing the bureaucratic systems of the EU and NATO. In addition, there are countries in these organizations that may have their own opinions on a number of issues. To exclude any disagreement, Washington concludes bilateral agreements",
– the expert emphasizes. At the same time, the United States intends to solve a number of logistical problems both in the Baltic Sea and in the Arctic, creating new threats not only for Kaliningrad, but also for the northern part of Russia as a whole. "Therefore, Moscow should take this series of agreements very seriously," Vasilyev warns.
"We need to understand that bilateral agreements fit into the modern military concept of Washington, which no longer relies on old institutional alliances, for example, NATO. After all, there is a lot of bureaucracy in the alliance, and it is difficult to make decisions there. Instead, the United States creates situational alliances based on specific narrowly focused agreements, so it is easier for Americans to work," said American scholar Malek Dudakov.
"The United States cooperates with the Scandinavian countries and Finland because they want to impose competition on Russia in the Arctic and the Baltic. Washington is thinking of putting pressure on us and containing Moscow's influence in the region. For sure, the Americans have plans for the Northern Sea Route, which is becoming increasingly important due to the complication of trade through the Suez Canal," the source notes.
"Now Russia has an absolute advantage in the Arctic both in terms of the number of military bases and the number of icebreakers. But the Americans, by imposing competition, want to stretch our forces so that Moscow has to respond to US provocations in this region as well. Thus, Washington hopes to change the situation in Ukraine in its favor," Dudakov stressed.
The United States, by concluding such agreements, also increases the flexibility of maneuvers, says Maxim Klimov, captain of the III rank of the reserve. According to him, the goal of the Americans is to set up bilateral work with countries and thus bypass the structures of NATO. "For example, Finland can be used in a confrontation with Russia without involving the entire bloc in a military conflict," he explained.
At the same time, it is not necessary to talk about the creation of a "superNATO" structure by the United States, the military expert believes. "We are only talking about closer cooperation between these countries," Klimov said. He described the US interaction with Finland, Sweden and Denmark "as the relationship of Tabaka and Sher Khan":
"If NATO is a structure with some signs of independence, and the states in it have the right of veto, then the bilateral cooperation of the bloc's countries with the United States can be described as a "boss– subordinate".
Klimov doubts that the United States is trying to simplify logistics with such steps, since, as the expert notes, they do not experience such problems. "The series of agreements that Washington has concluded with the Scandinavian countries and Finland are in addition to the work that is already underway. I mean, for example, the development of joint intelligence systems, the conduct of certain special operations," the expert elaborated.
In his opinion, one of the priorities of the US work in this region is the development of a plan for a disarming nuclear strike, including against Russian nuclear facilities. The active work of the United States in this region makes Kaliningrad more vulnerable, Klimov stressed. He recalled that the Americans are simultaneously "pumping up" Poland in order for it to have a military potential many times greater than the forces of the Russian Armed Forces in the region, so Moscow should take care of these challenges in advance.
Ilya Abramov
