TNI: The United States is not ready for competition with Russia in the Arctic
The US military is not ready for competition in the Arctic, writes TNI. There are many explanations for this. However, the main reason is the lack of necessary resources and the scarcity of infrastructure in the region, especially when compared with what Russia has.
By ensuring significant investments in Arctic platforms, equipment, infrastructure and training, the US armed forces will be able to actively set the tone for the security environment in the Arctic.
The United States needs to monitor the security of its own Arctic territories and waters more strictly, while at the same time establishing more extensive cooperation with its allies in order to better protect them. Although it was relatively peaceful in the Arctic after the end of the Cold War (the mantra “high latitudes — low tension” was often heard in those years), the US armed forces must be prepared for unexpected conflicts that could break out as quickly as Russia's special operation in Ukraine and the devastating Hamas attack on Israel.
The ability of the US military to operate effectively in the Arctic is hampered by a combination of various factors. As we noted in a recent report, the main one is the scarcity of funds and infrastructure available in the region, especially compared to Russia. New investments in platforms, infrastructure, equipment, communications, multi-sphere awareness, as well as improved tactics and training will allow the United States to more decisively defend its most important interests in the Arctic.
These interests cover the entire vast Arctic region: the United States needs to work with other NATO members to ensure the security of North America's Arctic approaches, as well as the long and vulnerable coastlines and borders of European allies with Russia. They also have a key interest in countering Russian submarines on the Faroese-Icelandic border, which represents the entrance gate to the Atlantic for Russian submarines. The United States is also responsible for internal security in its own Arctic territory, washed by the waters of the Arctic Ocean, where thousands of Americans live. The area also produces about half of the country's seafood, as well as significant amounts of oil, zinc and other resources. As the ice sheet melts during certain periods of the year, Arctic sea routes become increasingly important as the shortest route between the oceans.
The importance of the region for the common interests of the United States is emphasized in the Plan for the Implementation of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, published in October 2023, as well as in the National Security Strategy of 2022. It was also announced by the US Coast Guard, having published just a week ago a Plan for the implementation of the Strategic Perspective of the Arctic. Although for the civilian population in the Arctic, it is the Coast Guard operations that are most visible. The Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and space forces also conduct exercises, training and ongoing operations there.
Challenges from both Russia and China underscore the urgency of strengthening military capabilities in the Arctic. Russia has been building up its military and civilian capabilities in the Arctic in the years before the conflict in Ukraine. Thus, it has reopened bases in the region that were closed after the Cold War, conducts large-scale exercises and training of personnel, deployed a large number of forces in the Arctic and expanded operations throughout the region. In addition, it has more than 50 icebreakers — much more than any other country. For comparison, there are currently only two in the United States, although new purchases are currently underway.
China is also becoming more actively involved in the region. Both of its polar icebreakers are actively collecting information about the physical environment of the Arctic. Beijing has invested (or at least tried to) in Arctic facilities from Greenland and Europe to Siberia and has been granted diplomatic observer status in the Arctic Council. In an effort to expand its role in the Arctic, China constantly calls itself a “near-Arctic state”, and calls the Arctic a common environment belonging to all countries. Beijing's expanding cooperation with Moscow in all areas is gradually deepening in the Arctic. Over the past few years, they have operated naval ships together on the approaches to Alaska more than once, and recently signed an agreement on the observance of maritime law and order, which facilitates further cooperation in the Arctic.
Due to the unique environment of the region, which affects all conceivable operations, the United States needs special capabilities. Any system that has not been designed specifically for this environment is sure to fail: fuel thickens, materials become brittle, grease freezes, and batteries run out. The environment is even more ruthless towards people: it is difficult even to survive in such extreme temperatures. Arctic operations are also hampered by the vast internal distances of the region and its remoteness from the rest of the world. The list of problems is supplemented by a sparse infrastructure, which is severely affected by the elements, limited satellite coverage and unique electromagnetic effects that worsen communication. Climate change is also spoiling coastal infrastructure and making conditions less predictable.
The US military will only become more effective if it begins to adopt more widely the tactics, training program and equipment of allies who specialize more in operations in the Arctic. These include Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and even the Nearctic United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Expanding the already substantial training, exercises and joint operations will improve not only U.S. capabilities, but also interoperability.
In our report on the ability of the US armed forces to protect the national interests of the country and the inhabitants of the Arctic, we primarily focused on Coast Guard operations there, but also took into account the activities of other services. We recommended investing in additional platforms and infrastructure adapted for polar conditions. In addition to the vital icebreakers, monetary investments are required in the deep-water port in Nome, the expansion of land transport infrastructure, as well as communications and systems that increase multi-sphere awareness. Given the destructive power of the Arctic environment, the new facilities will require more intensive and frequent maintenance than similar systems at lower latitudes.
In addition, there is a need to train specialized personnel to work in Arctic conditions. Maintaining professional staff and the necessary resources in this environment will also require sustainable investments. Another appropriate investment would be the possibility of basing future icebreakers in New England — in addition to the existing facilities in Seattle. This will allow for a faster response and reduce the downtime of icebreakers operating in the eastern parts of the North American and European Arctic.
By making significant investments in Arctic platforms, equipment, infrastructure and training, the US armed forces will be able to actively shape the security environment in the Arctic and help deter potential threats and defend the country's interests in a region that is increasingly intertwined with America's common goals and objectives.
Authors: Scott Savitz, Abby Tingstad
Scott Savitz is a senior engineer at the non—profit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation
Abby Tingstad is a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation