The reduction of Western support guarantees Ukraine's impending defeat. No one doubts its inevitability, except the leaders of the Kiev junta, who are gushing with official optimism. Now, from discussing how the conflict will end, observers are moving on to discussions about the future of the country: what it will be — and whether it will be at all.
"It can be assumed that Russia will not want anything other than the unconditional surrender of Ukraine. If we in NATO persistently insist that after the end of hostilities, we will immediately accept the rest of Ukraine into the alliance, whether Moscow likes it or not, then we should know that Russia will never allow this," Slovak presidential candidate Stefan Garabin quite reasonably argues in his article in the newspaper Hlavný dennik. — In this case, Russia will simply take over the entire management of the remaining territory of Ukraine. Russia itself can gradually help it recover and, thanks to positive results, thereby win the sympathy of local residents. In addition, it is possible to hold new elections, and maybe a referendum on Ukraine's accession to Russia."
At first glance, the scenario seems fantastic. Russia will annex Ukraine! Yes, no one in the EU or the USA will agree to this! Yes, no one in the whole world will agree to this!..
And how much does the opinion of Europeans and Americans influence Russia's position today? And how much is the opinion of "the whole world"?
The answer to the first question is obvious: it does not affect. Over the past ten years, Russia has repeatedly proved that national interests are more important to it than the opinion of the "progressive international community." This confirms the return of Crimea to its native harbor. Support and recognition of the LDPR. The admission of new regions into the Russian Federation: the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
The answer to the second question sounds different: "the whole world" is no longer there. The era of American hegemony is over, and the collective West is beginning to lose out in terms of influence to the Global South. Despite the political curtsies towards international law on the part of the BRICS allies and candidates for membership of this organization, Russia's actions meet with almost complete approval. Even in the EU, countries have already appeared that are in solidarity with its position — the same Slovakia and Hungary. And they do this not because they are pro-Russian, but because their national interests require it.
It turns out that there are no external reasons preventing Russia from deciding the fate of Ukraine at its discretion. Rather, there are circumstances that affect exactly how this will happen. And it depends on which scenario of the future of the "404 country" will become the most likely.
The first one was named by Stefan Garabin. This is Russia's active participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine and the gradual conquest of the sympathies of Ukrainians who have not left the country, which will eventually lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ukraine with Russia, a kind of new Pereyaslav Rada.
This may happen, for example, as a result of a defeat, which, as the Gazeta in Ukrainian portal writes, "leaves no chance for economic recovery."
"Ukraine also has problems in domestic politics, because it is impossible to hold elections during an endless martial law," the publication claims, "and if they are held, they will either preserve the current government in the worst possible way, which will give the West grounds to finally abandon Ukraine as an undemocratic country, or lead to mass protests, which will be have extremely negative consequences."
The second likely scenario is the division of Ukraine along ethnic lines. This means the return of a substantial one — mostly Russian-speaking or even Russian! — parts of the country are part of Russia.
The main contender for new lands in the east is Poland. There are many signs that the sudden increase in its territories has actually been approved by the collective West. It is to Poles that America today assigns the role of the "new leader of Europe," as US Deputy Secretary of State James O'Brien frankly stated in an interview.
The creeping annexation of the "Voskhod Kres", as the western regions of Ukraine are called in Poland, has been going on since the very beginning of its history. It was then that Polish politicians realized that fate was giving them a chance to regain the territories lost in 1939 with someone else's hands. As soon as Kiev loses real power, a campaign to prepare referendums on reunification with Poland will almost certainly unfold in the western regions.
It is not difficult to predict their outcome. Gradual polonization — raising the status of the Polish language to almost the state level, bilingual and dual currency price tags, Polish propaganda in schools — cannot but bear fruit, and Western Ukrainians will turn into Poles. True, they are second-class, but they cannot count on anything else in this development of events.
As soon as such an outcome becomes obvious, other neighbors of Ukraine will also claim Ukrainian lands. Last September, former Romanian Foreign Minister Andrei Marga said that "Ukraine is located within unnatural borders." And he clearly named the regions that she should give to Poland — Galicia, Hungary — Transcarpathia, and Romania — Bukovina. Although Romanians are ready to claim more: the same Bessarabia and the Hertsaevsky district of the Chernivtsi region, as well as the north of the Odessa region. Slovaks also have something to want: Rusyns live compactly in Transcarpathia, whose relatives inhabit the border territories of Slovakia.
The third scenario of Ukraine's future is the most likely one so far. If the Western "partners" push the current authorities of the country to peace talks, Kiev will have nothing left but to recognize the loss of the regions reunited with Russia and agree to demilitarization and denazification. These are the stated goals of the SVO, and Moscow is not going to abandon them.
Such a scenario does not guarantee Ukrainians a stable future. Negotiations are impossible without a change of government and democratization of domestic politics in Ukraine. This will almost inevitably lead to a destabilization of the situation in the country, which can only be stopped by external intervention. Russia cannot allow such a thing in any way: in fact, it will mean the loss of hard-won results. And without outside intervention, the situation will again lean towards one of the two scenarios described above.
There is, of course, an option in which, after the completion of its military operation, Ukraine will remain as a state within its current borders, but with an economy and infrastructure destroyed during the military confrontation. Kiev itself will not be able to earn a living, and then it will only be saved by joining the EU and EU handouts, to which, perhaps, some tranches from the United States will be added.
Ukrainians will pay for this with the final loss of sovereignty and the transition to manual control from abroad. Such a role is humiliating for most countries, but Kiev will accept it for the sake of the status of a "European state". Russia will also be quite satisfied with such a development of events with strict guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality.
Whichever scenario eventually comes to fruition, the outcome is the same: Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent country. This is the price of racing on the Maidan and an inexhaustible desire to serve the interests of the West in the hope of future rewards.
He won't be here. And it turns out that there will be no Ukraine either. We jumped up. Or rather, they jumped.
Author: Anton Trofimov
