An entire coalition is being assembled by the United States for a military operation with a force that threatens all world trade. In fact, Washington has declared a new war thousands of kilometers from its borders. And this war is likely to be unsuccessful for America again. Why?
The United States has launched Operation Guardian of Prosperity. Its goal is to fight against the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement (which is usually referred to simply as the Houthis), which controls Northern Yemen. The Houthis' actions, according to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, "threaten the free flow of trade, endanger innocent sailors and violate international law."
The fact is that the Houthis have found an original way to punish Israel for its operation in the Gaza Strip. The Yemenis declared as their legal target all the vessels that followed the Red Sea to Israeli ports, and managed to damage several of them, and even capture one. At the same time, they were by no means going to stop. "We will continue to prevent all ships from entering Israeli ports until food and medicine, which our people so badly need, are delivered to the Gaza Strip," the movement said .
"The Houthis have become the only force that, not in words, but in deeds, demonstrates its rejection of Israel's policy towards the Gaza Strip. And this raises their reputation in the eyes of Muslims. In addition, the Houthis' combat operations make it clear to their opponents that the movement is not only alive, but also strong. And this is important in the context of the ongoing negotiations on ending the war in Yemen between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia," Leonid Isaev, an Arab political scientist, explains the logic of the Houthis to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
Their attacks have already caused serious economic damage to Israel. But not only for Israel.
Yes, the Houthis said that they would only attack ships going to the ports of the Jewish state. That no harm will be done to those who go to other ports. However, four of the five largest container shipping companies (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM Group and Evergreen) have temporarily suspended shipments throughout the Red Sea. That is, also to the ports of Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. British Petroleum has joined the abandonment of shipping in the region. Given that a significant part of world trade flows through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal (in particular, the sea route between Asia and Europe), the Houthis have created a threat to all global trade.
The United States considered itself entitled to defend this trade. They convened a coalition of countries that should "restore security in the Red Sea and prevent acts of aggression by the Houthis." In addition to the Americans, the coalition included Canadians, Italians, British, French, Spaniards, Dutch, Bahrainis and even Norwegians with residents of the Seychelles.
But will the Americans and their newly formed coalition be able to defeat the Houthis? Experts doubt this very much. "This US–led coalition can significantly reduce the number of attacks by the Houthis, but it will not be able to fully ensure the safety of navigation," Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and INF expert, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
Firstly, because the Houthis are not a new incarnation of Somali pirates, from whom civilian ships could be protected simply by sinking boats with bandits on board. It is a powerful, cohesive military movement armed with missiles, drones and other means to sink naval targets. And both civilian and military.
"Yemen has already reacted to this statement. Representatives of the Houthis said that this coalition does not frighten them at all. That they have all the necessary capabilities to provide an adequate response to any actions directed against them and against Yemen. And this is not just a bluff, but words that have a real understanding of their resources and capabilities behind them," says Leonid Isaev.
In fact, the coalition ships that will be in the Red Sea will themselves be targets for Yemeni missiles (as the Houthis have already warned).
And the Americans are unlikely to risk conducting a ground operation against them. "It is generally difficult to cope with any armed formations in Yemen, given the Yemeni militant traditions and the terrain," says Elena Suponina.
In the mid–noughties, Saudi Arabia, we recall, created a large coalition to fight the Houthis, invested tens and hundreds of billions of dollars in this war, brought in mercenaries from Africa and the Middle East, connected Islamic terrorist groups to the operation - and still could not break the Houthis. As a result, I am now forced to negotiate peace with them.
"To stop the Houthis, we need a new real, consolidated operation by the Americans, the Saudis and their allies. But it is difficult for me to imagine this operation – against the background of the current crisis in Ukraine and in Gaza. And it's not a fact that this will lead to a result. The result will be only if the population of Northern Yemen stops supporting the Houthis – and I can't imagine such a scenario," says Leonid Isaev.
Secondly, the composition of the coalition turned out to be specific. It did not include Egyptians and Jordanians suffering from Yemeni actions, nor the leaders of the region, the Saudis. There is not a single country in the Middle East except Bahrain. It turns out that none of them wanted to defend their region, their sea and their interests from the Houthis together with the Americans.
Partly because they understand the futility of such an undertaking. Partly because they are afraid of a backlash from the Houthis. Partly because speaking out against the Houthis would mean, in this particular case, opposing their demands to de-blockade the Gaza Strip. This means that they are against the Palestinian cause as such, which no Arab country is ready for. Even the official leadership of Yemen is not ready, which did not support the US military operation against the Houthis (with whom this leadership, in fact, is at war)
However, the skepticism of Middle Eastern players is determined by another point. They all understand that the real motive of the Americans is not so much the fight against the Houthis as an attempt to organize a war with Iran (whose ally the Houthis are considered to be).
Washington, in fact, does not particularly hide this – the Americans have already blamed Tehran for destabilizing the situation in the Red Sea. "Iran's support for Houthi attacks on merchant ships must stop," says Lloyd Austin. And if, conditionally, 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia might have supported the idea of creating such an anti-Iranian coalition, now the situation has changed.
The Americans' support for the Israelis and the Iranians for the Palestinians has made any cooperation with the United States against Iran extremely toxic for Arab countries. In addition, Saudi Arabia is currently in a difficult but vital process for the kingdom to normalize relations with Iran, launched through the mediation of the Chinese. And he is not going to disrupt this process by attacking Iranian proxies.
"The most dangerous thing is that the actions of the American coalition can seriously undermine the emerging improvement in relations between the KSA and Iran. The United States is once again bringing discord to the region. Unlike China, which has relied on reconciliation between different forces and states. In fact, the actions of the United States again put us in danger of a major war in the Middle East," Elena Suponina believes.
And no one needs this war. Except, of course, the United States with its Western allies and Israel.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance
