Colonel Khodarenok: the main events of the Russian operation in Ukraine are still ahead
Russia plans to conduct military operations in Ukraine until 2026 and take the cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Dnipro. This was written by the Bild publication. How reliable is the publication in a German newspaper, for how long military campaigns are planned and what to expect from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
Journalists of the German newspaper Bild believe that in 2024 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will completely take control of the territories of the LPR and the DPR and reach the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region. Then in Moscow, according to the newspaper, they plan to take the cities of Kharkov and Dnipro. Further, by the end of 2026, Vladimir Putin, as Bild wrote, intends to completely seize the territories of the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions.
The German newspaper also believes that the Russian Armed Forces will continue fighting in the Kherson direction, where Russian units and formations will hold positions along the Dnieper River without occupying the city itself.
Opinions about the publication in the German edition differed among representatives of the Russian expert community. Some believe that the Bild newspaper is a tabloid whose materials should not be taken seriously. Others remind that the newspaper's forecasts on the eve of the events of February 24, 2022 were fully justified.
Regarding Bild's assumptions on the eve of the special operation, it should be noted that this newspaper was far from the only one to publish such materials (that is, Bild was far from the only publication in this regard). In addition, it is one thing to work out the forecast for the next month, and quite another for the next three years. This alone makes us very skeptical of publications of this kind and consider them to be the work of the editorial staff of the newspaper, and not material based on serious analysis and any leaks.
How military operations are planned
In addition, the three-year forecasts of German journalists somehow differ very much from the generally accepted practice of strategic planning. As you know, victory over the enemy in a high-intensity armed conflict cannot be achieved by a one-time strategic effort. Such tasks are usually solved within the framework of a single military campaign (winter, summer-autumn, etc.), sometimes during several campaigns.
In terms of content, military campaigns are part of the war, a certain stage of it and represent a system of simultaneous and sequential operations of various types and scales, united by common military, political and strategic goals and a single plan.
Usually, the campaign is planned for a period of no more than six months (that is, not until 2026). At the same time, the general staffs of the warring parties determine the directions of concentration of the main efforts, the distribution of forces and means in strategic directions, the composition and procedure for creating strategic groupings of troops on them, their possible tasks, the basics of interaction, as well as logistical issues.
At the same time, plans for only initial operations are being developed in detail. The next ones are outlined only in the most general terms. Detailed planning of these operations is already carried out depending on the results of the initial operations.
So one thing is for sure - when preparing its analytical text, the German newspaper Bild clearly did not use the services of an operational and strategic planning consultant.
Kiev's plans
We will not run three years ahead, but only clarify what the plans of the military-political leadership of Ukraine for the winter-spring campaign of 2024 will look like.
Some observers believe that the recent visit of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to the United States was initially doomed to failure due to the hostility of Democrats with Republicans. There were assessments that Zelensky could not count on real success in getting help from Washington while the Republicans controlled the US Congress. It was concluded that the meetings of the President of Ukraine with American officials were just a performance.
In fact, this is not quite true. The head of Ukraine arrived in Washington not on an initiative basis, but at the invitation of US President Joe Biden. The content of the conversation between Vladimir Zelensky and the head of the White House in detail is, of course, unknown to us. But it is highly likely that Joe Biden told Vladimir Zelensky: "We will find money for you. I ask you to tell me in detail what you intend to spend it on."
The fact is that in Ukraine, even after the failure of the summer offensive operation, there are still calls for the continuation of various kinds of "counter-offensives". It is likely that during the meeting with Vladimir Zelensky, President Joe Biden strongly recommended that the Armed Forces of Ukraine abandon dashing saber attacks for the next winter campaign, switch to strategic defense, accumulate forces, funds and continue to launch missile and air strikes against objects of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, Crimea.
Most likely, such strikes will intensify with the arrival of multifunctional F-16 fighters for equipping the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is quite possible that the means of long-range fire attack will be transferred by other NATO member states (in particular, a scheme was announced under which Germany could supply air-launched cruise missiles Taurus through Sweden).
In 1989-1991, the 442 BGM-109G missiles available in the US Air Force were reduced in accordance with the INF Treaty. Reduced, but by no means completely destroyed. At that time, the Americans presented propulsion systems for liquidation, from which all equipment was removed, only the hull was destroyed. So it is quite possible that some kind of reincarnation of missiles of this type (quite possibly, based on new technologies), especially since the INF Treaty has long sunk into oblivion. Most likely, Ukraine can receive dozens of similar products.
After the failure of the summer offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there was even some euphoria and a certain complacency in the Russian expert community. However, it is still premature to relax. The main events of the special military operation are still ahead.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok