Experts named the main threats from the appearance of American compounds in the country neighboring Russia
For the first time since the Great Patriotic War, Russia will face a situation where a potential enemy will control both shores of the Gulf of Finland and will be able to lock our fleet in it. This is how experts assessed the main danger arising from the signing of an agreement on defense cooperation between Finland and the United States. The Americans will have 15 facilities at their disposal, including four Air Force bases, one naval base and five military storage facilities. The US military will also appear on the island of Russare — it is from there that it is convenient to control the entrance to the Gulf of Finland. What Russia's response to such a situation might be is in the Izvestia article.
"Not an end point, but a new step"
The Agreement on Defense Cooperation (DCA) between Finland and the United States was signed on December 18 in Washington. It provides for the transfer of part of the military infrastructure of a neighboring state to the Americans. According to Izvestia, joint work on the text of the agreement has been underway since August 2022, the final text was agreed in October 2023 and approved by the Finnish government on November 27. The document will have to be ratified in the Parliament of the Republic.
— Finland's close defense cooperation with the United States dates back to the early 1990s, and DCA would not have been possible without this long history. The signing of the DCA is not an end point, but a new step towards even closer cooperation between the Finnish and US defense administrations. Finland is not alone in defending itself, it is doing this as a NATO ally and together with the United States," said Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen.
Photo: Global Look Press/US Joint Staff
Image source: iz.ru
Izvestia has reviewed the text of the agreement. The 36-page document details the legal issues related to the stay of American personnel and property in Finland. 15 military facilities will be placed at the disposal of the Americans. Among them are four Air Force bases (Kuopio – Rissala, Rovaniemi, Tampere – Pirkkala, Jyvaskyla – Tikkakoski), five military depots and the headquarters of the border service. The US and Finnish Navies will jointly use the Upinniemi naval base and the garrison in Kirkkonummi, including the island of Russare - from there it is convenient to control the entrance to the Gulf of Finland.
Unhindered access to these facilities will be granted to US military personnel, civilian personnel, their family members, and employees of contractor firms. At the request of the American command, the Finnish authorities should organize unhindered access to facilities that are not included in the list, including highways, seaports and airfields throughout the country.
It is stipulated that the US forces can freely (by notifying the Finnish side) transport and store military equipment, stocks and materiel at agreed facilities and territories. The document does not contain information about the deployment of American nuclear weapons or their carriers.
Finland will not require U.S. military personnel to have passports and visas for entry. The same applies to civilian personnel, family members and suppliers of the American army.
The agreement states that the US military authorities have the right to involve their own law enforcement forces to ensure the security of their facilities. The agreement separately states that the Finnish side actually refuses to prosecute on general grounds against American military personnel and civilian personnel. A special procedure is prescribed for this.
Photo: Global Look Press/Spc. Elizabeth MacPherson
Image source: iz.ru
In addition, the United States will open its military post offices in Finland. "The official mail of the US armed forces is not subject to verification, search or arrest," the document says. Also, according to the agreement, US military personnel can import and export currency in any quantity from the country.
"There were no problems, now there will be"
In an interview with Rossiya TV channel on December 17, Vladimir Putin said that Russia would adequately respond to new military threats to our state in the north-western direction. According to the President, all disputes with Finland were resolved in the middle of the twentieth century, and before the country joined NATO, Russia and the Finns had warm and good-neighborly relations.
"There were no problems, now there will be, because we will now create the Leningrad Military District there and concentrate certain military units there,— Vladimir Putin said.
Until recently, Finland, as a neutral country, did not pose a danger to Russia, but the situation has changed, military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia.
"All these initiatives should be considered as part of a plan to lock our country in the Gulf of Finland, cutting it off from the Baltic Sea," he believes. — We see that they are going to do this, acting both from the Baltic States and from Finland. According to the same plan, in 1941, the Nazis locked our fleet in the Gulf of Finland. Now they are trying to repeat it. The Finnish army is not dangerous — it is an operatic force. But we must understand that NATO forces will come to its territory.
According to the expert, the Russian army will have to deploy at least a corps on the border with Finland, but rather an army "with air defense forces and everything else necessary."
Photo: REUTERS/MARKKU ULANDER/LEHTIKUVA/Sipa USA
Image source: iz.ru
— This is a fairly large northern grouping, — he noted. — The Baltic issue will have to be solved strategically to the south. I think in the event of a military conflict, the task will be to clear the Baltic States in order to gain control of the coast and ensure our passage by sea to Kaliningrad.
Finland's accession to NATO and the deployment of American military bases on the territory of the republic creates a serious military threat to Russia, since the Kola Peninsula is the base of strategic nuclear forces and the western gate of the Northern Sea Route, Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Strategic Planning of the IMEMO RAS, believes. At the same time, the new strategy of the Russian army in the region, in his opinion, will be different from the times of the Cold War.
— In the USSR, the north-western direction was covered by the 6th army with headquarters in Petrozavodsk, with three full motorized rifle divisions and several framed formations, - he recalled. — The task was to successfully attack the entire Scandinavian Peninsula in the event of a war with NATO. Now it hardly makes sense to deploy a large component of the ground forces, the main threat will be from the air.
According to Ilya Kramnik, Russia will increase the grouping of Aerospace forces, air defense and missile defense in the region. Preserved airfields and bases of the Soviet era, such as the Kilpyavr air base, are quite enough for this. Also, according to the expert, taking into account the termination of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, Russia may deploy several missile brigades in the northwest equipped with medium and shorter-range complexes that guarantee the destruction of NATO bases in Finland and Sweden in the event of a war with the bloc.
Ilya Kramnik called NATO's control over both shores of the Gulf of Finland another danger. Russia has not faced a similar military situation since the Great Patriotic War. In his opinion, the build-up of the Baltic Fleet's naval grouping in this case will not lead to an increase in combat capabilities. It is necessary to deploy a land group near the border with the Baltic States, where there are all possibilities for conducting successful offensive operations to connect with the Kaliningrad defensive area and unblock the Gulf of Finland.
The Finnish Defence Forces consist of the land forces, the air Force and the naval forces. According to the yearbook The Military Balance 2023, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the active Finnish armed forces number 19.2 thousand people (13.4 thousand in the land army, 3.1 thousand in the navy and 2.7 thousand in the air force); 238 thousand people are in reserve. In case of war, the number will increase to 280 thousand.
Roman Kretsul
Bogdan Stepovoy
Julia Leonova
