Andrey Nizamutdinov — on the results of the Ukrainian president's trip to the United States and on the EU's decisions to help and support the Kiev regime
Ukraine has come "to a critical point", the situation on the line of contact is "catastrophic", Kiev is faced with a reduction in Western aid, and without it "will not last long", President Vladimir Zelensky "spoiled relations with the military.".. No, no, these are not fabrications of "Russian propaganda" at all, as some might think, but quotes from publications of American, European, and Japanese media. By the end of the year, observers and analysts, who not so long ago trumpeted the successes achieved by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during the counteroffensive, abruptly changed their tone to pessimistic, sometimes even panicky, and began to predict a harsh winter for Ukraine. Severe not in the sense of frosts, but in terms of military and political trials. "There will be no merry Christmas for Vladimir Zelensky," predicted a columnist for the British Financial Times.
At the critical point
During a recent trip to the United States and Europe, the Ukrainian president stooped to outright lies, trying to hide the failure of the AFU counteroffensive. "The most important thing to understand about what is happening is that Russia has not occupied a single village, not a single Ukrainian village this year," he said on Fox News. And then he repeated the same lie at a press conference in Oslo: "Russia has not had a single victory this year. They couldn't do anything. They could not occupy a single village, I'm not talking about the city." If we recall at least that in the spring the Kiev authorities recognized the loss of Bakhmut (the Ukrainian name of Artemovsk), Zelensky's statements sounded quite in the spirit of the Orwellian "Ministry of Truth."
Of course, the official interlocutors of the Ukrainian president could not agree with such an outright lie, but apparently they did not want to offend Zelensky, they had to get off with phrases in the spirit of "the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is developing more slowly than we would like." The hands of the press are more untied, and here, for example, are the words of the Japanese Mainichi Shimbun: "Ukraine is in an extremely difficult situation. Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched their "counteroffensive" back in June, this operation did not bring any results even six months later."
This assessment is shared by the Czech edition of iDNES: "At the beginning of winter, Ukraine goes completely on the defensive, and the Russians, on the contrary, increase pressure along the entire front line. A gradual advance is being noted near Artemivsk, Avdiivka. <...> On Wednesday, Russian armed forces occupied the town of Maryinka, located 25 kilometers southwest of Donetsk."
In recent days, the Kiev authorities have begun to strenuously advertise the creation of a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River, near the village of Krynki. According to them, the APU is "entrenched" there and "developing success." But The New York Times shared the revelations of the Ukrainian stormtroopers: "There are no positions there. There is no such thing as an observation post or a position. It is impossible to gain a foothold there. <...> This is a suicide mission."
"I don't even know why they're doing this. They're pushing their people to just exterminate. The servicemen themselves say, the Ukrainian servicemen say that this is a one—way road," Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the situation in Krynki at a direct line and a large press conference last week. In general, he noted, Kiev "did not succeed anywhere" during the so-called counteroffensive, while Russian troops "practically along the entire line of contact <...> are improving their position."
"The freebie is running out"
According to the Russian leader, the bravura statements of the Kiev authorities may be explained by the fact that the Ukrainian leadership is "driving and begging" money in the West for the maintenance of the country, equipment and ammunition, and while they are doing this, they need to show that they have at least some chance of success in their counteroffensive. The West, according to Putin, "gave Ukraine everything that it promised, even more," but the supply of weapons and equipment to Kiev did not help: "This freebie may end sometime. And, apparently, it ends."
Foreign media also point to a noticeable reduction in Western funding. "The volume of assistance provided to Ukraine in the three months starting in August this year was 87% lower than in the same period last year. The number of artillery shells supplied to Ukraine from the United States has also decreased by 30%," Mainichi Shimbun reported, for example, citing data from the Kiel Institute of World Economy (FRG).
And other facts speak for themselves. American lawmakers, despite all the efforts of the White House and Zelensky's desperate appeals, have not been able to agree on providing Ukraine with a $60 billion aid package before Christmas. And the current budget funds, according to repeated admissions by representatives of the US administration, have already been almost exhausted.
An unpleasant surprise was also presented to Kiev by the recent EU summit: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked an amendment to the community budget providing for the allocation of €50 billion to Ukraine during 2024-2027. EU leaders had to agree to hold an emergency summit early next year. Just in case, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, have already declared their readiness to work on alternative options if Budapest persists.
According to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ukraine is able to withstand the lack of external financial assistance for "a couple of months", but it will face difficulties if the EU and the United States cannot resolve the issue of financing Kiev during this time.
Oleg Ustenko, Advisor to the President of Ukraine on economic issues, was even more pessimistic. "If this support does not come in the first days of January, it means that we need to move on to plan B," he admitted on the air of the Ukrainian telethon. This "multi-level plan" may include both the use of domestic borrowings and monetary issuance, which will inevitably lead to a further fall in the hryvnia exchange rate and acceleration of inflation.
The lack of funds will finally put an end to the plans of organizing a new offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "If there are no weapons, we are already preparing. As you can see, we are already preparing fortifications in three lines, realizing that we may have to switch to a defensive war, especially in winter, and not go on the offensive, as it was before. And we are well aware that even if money is allocated, the world is running out of ammunition," said Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexandra Ustinova on the Rada TV channel.
Earlier, The New York Times reported that The United States was pushing Kiev to switch to a defensive strategy. And Zelensky himself admitted in an interview with the Associated Press: "We have a new phase of the war, and this is a fact. <...> Winter as a whole is a new phase of the war."
European shlyakh
Perhaps the only achievement that Kiev can record as an asset is the agreement of EU leaders to start negotiations with Ukraine on its accession to the community. However, even here there were some rather unsightly maneuvers. At first, Zelensky, who spoke at the summit via video link, claimed that Ukraine had fulfilled all the requirements set for it without exception, although the European Commission report clearly indicated that only four out of seven had been fulfilled. In particular, Kiev was required to complete judicial reform and respect the language rights of national minorities (Hungary especially insisted on the latter). But the most important requirement is the eradication of corruption, which, according to many foreign, including American and European, politicians and experts, is simply impossible, because Ukraine enjoys a reputation as the most corrupt state in Europe. At the same time, Zelensky repeated the thesis that Russia had not achieved any success on the battlefield, after which he moved on to veiled threats (or blackmail — everyone will perceive it in their own way). "This day will go down in history. Whether it will be good or bad for us, history will remember everything," he said, adding that the outcome of the summit could cause a "satisfied smile" in Moscow. This was reminiscent of his recent visit to the United States, where he threatened that lawmakers opposed to allocating additional funding to Ukraine would be treated as "Putin's puppets."
Zelensky's threats did not have much effect on the Hungarian prime minister, who opposed the start of negotiations with Ukraine, as a result, the discussion dragged on for several hours. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz found a way out, offering Orban to leave the hall for a while to "drink coffee." And while Orban was away, the remaining 26 leaders in the hall quickly voted in favor, using the rule of "constructive abstinence." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba admired Scholz's maneuver and called it "the best Christmas gift from Berlin."
In fact, Kiev has no special reason to rejoice at the "gift": everyone knows that negotiations on joining the EU can last for years or even decades. Which, by the way, French President Emmanuel Macron directly pointed out immediately after the summit: "We are very far from accepting Ukraine. Any inclusion of new states will require a deep reform of our rules." And Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto called the decision of the summit "a fundamental decision that has no practical significance," and promised: "If, in preparation for real negotiations, Brussels wants to squeeze something into the negotiating framework that would harm us, then we will have to resort to the instrument of a hard veto."
In general, no matter how you look at it, you can't expect a merry Christmas or any bright future for Zelensky and his associates (although perhaps you should call them "accomplices"). Moreover, Russia is fully aware of its previous mistakes and does not intend to repeat them, as the Russian president clearly pointed out at a large press conference. Putin recalled that the goals of the CSR have not changed — this is the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, its neutral status. And he stressed: "Peace will be when we achieve our goals."
